Betfair Strategies

Winning Betfair Strategies – Systems For Backing & Laying For Football & Horse Racing

Betfair and Betfair Touch Trading Tips (First, we look at UK Horse racing. Scroll down further for football/soccer strategies). Don’t forget that Betfair offers a huge range of markets including American Football, Australian Rules, Baseball, Basketball, Bowls, Boxing, Chess, Cricket, Cycling, Darts, Financials, Gaelic Games, Golf, Greyhound Racing, Handball, Horse Racing, Ice Hockey, MMA, Motor Sport, Poker, Politics, Pool, Rugby League, Rugby Union, Snooker, Tennis and Volleyball.

UK horse racing gets lots of liquidity and is good for swing trading. Particularly within an hour of the race starting. This is good because any outstanding lay or back bets, needed to balance a trade, will always be matched. However, most successful Betfair traders will just be acting on good betting tips from subscription services like LUCKY 7 NAPS or from professional betfair trading daily services like the sports trader.

We also assume that if you are reading this article that you already have a Betfair account. If you do not, then click on the link below to get a £20 free bet on Betfair Exchange. Betfair is by far the biggest and busiest exchange in the world, and it is essential that you have an account.

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Here is a brief summary of the Betfair profit making strategies you will learn in this post.

Horse Racing

  • Using free tipster selections to trade out on horses that are more than likely to drop in price (Steamers)
  • Use free Racing Post Data to find potential price droppers and trades

Football

  • 1 loser strategy (Make profits on the Correct Score market or the First Goalscorer market)
  • 2 losers strategy (More advanced angle to make betfair profits on the same markets)

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Be in control of your own destiny and soon you will forget what an alarm clock actually sounds like. Tony  has been one of the best Betfair traders since 2008. You can check out his reasonably priced trading eBooks, live courses as well as genuine testimonials on his website here

Strategy #1 – Trading For A Profit Using Popular Free Online Tipster

If you would rather just look for profitable spots, here is a Betfair trading strategy that can be used to identify horses who odds are expect to shorten. Horses like this are sometimes called steamers (where the odds shorten significantly). It is not necessary to know anything about horse racing to following a strategy like this.

This strategy identifies horses that are getting interest from tipsters and who’s odds are significantly different to those offered by the bookmakers. The expectation is that the odds on Betfair will get closer to the average odds offered by traditional bookmakers. The odds on Betfair will always be larger than those offered with the bookmakers because Betfair odds do not have an ‘in built’ profit margin like bookmaker odds. This strategy aims to find selections where the difference between the odds is too large.

Online-betting-guide.co.uk (OLBG) is a tipster website which has some useful features. The free horse racing tips section includes a summary of the most tipped horses. Racing during the day can be investigated, in which case, it is advisable to look early in the morning. Tips for most up coming major horse racing events can be accessed in the ante-post section. This enables a swing trade to be opened well in advance of the race starting if necessary.

The OLGB technology shows which horses have received most tips and what the bookmaker’s odds are for that selection. The OLGB rating uses OLBG Tips percentages to calculate win probabilities and compares these with bookie odds, which gives an indication if there is value in the odds. If there is value in the odds they are most likely to shorten.

Other tipsters can be used to verify selections. Tips from websites like OLBG might not be enough because the tipster might not have a large enough following to influence the price. Racing Post follows newspaper tipsters and report how successful they’ve been. The thing about newspaper tipsters is that they get a good readership. For instance, Steve Simpson of the Blackpool Gazette, has been the most profitable from the Local press. Marlborough, from the daily telegraph has also been successful recently.

In any case, once a horse has been selected a back bet is placed on the selection as early as possible (which is determined by the liquidity in the market and the size of the stake). Wait for the odds to shorten on the day of the race.

Next green up for a guaranteed profit.

Strategy #2 – The Racing Post Forecast Price Strategy

Another method is to compare the betting forecast on Racing post, with the average bookmaker odds using Oddschecker, and finally the odds available on Betfair. Racing Post has a section called tomorrows cards which lists all the races for the following day. Underneath is the betting forecast which uses the Racing Post database and rankings figures to make an odds prediction. If the odds on Betfair are a lot higher than those of bookmakers and the Racing Post forecast it could be a good selection. Again a back bet is placed with a lay bet to follow after the odds have shortened.

What if the odds move in the wrong direction

No selection system is infallible. Sometimes the odds won’t move as expected. The trader should set a stop loss. The trade would be closed by placing the corresponding back or lay bet, which, would result in a small loss. It’s up to the trader to decide how far they will let the odds move in the wrong direction before the trade is closed.

Furthermore it is very important that trades are not closed before the horse race starts. After the race starts odds can move wildly and quickly, which can result in sudden loses. Completing trades before the race starts avoids large price movements and prevents any trades from riding as plain bets. Which of course is not trading it’s just gambling.

In summary this Betfair trading strategy for UK horse racing is one of many available. It works by finding horses who’s odds on Betfair offer value compared with the average of traditional bookmakers. The expectation is that the odds will shorten to reflect that of the market average making an opportunity to profit by trading the odds.

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Strategy #3 – 1 Loser Strategy (Football)

Using this strategy you can Lay several scores in the Correct Score market, or several players in the First Goal Scorer market, and win on every Lay except your FIRST Lay.
If you were Laying the Correct Score Market :-

The only way these Lays can lose is if you happen to pick the winning score line with your FIRST Lay.

Lay as many score lines as you like.
The more you Lay, the bigger your profit.

Additionally, as with all other Laying strategies that involve more than one Lay, every Lay you make reduces your liabilities.

In this case your only liability will be on your First Lay.

As you make more Lays, that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other Lay increases.

If the game ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever.
You clean up, winning the total £££ of all your Lays.

Remember, your only losing Lay will be on the FIRST score line that you Lay.
You will win on all the others.

It is exactly the same if you Lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market.
You could also use this spreadsheet to Lay a number of horses in a horse race, golfers in a golf tournament, darts players in a darts competition etc.

1 Loser Strategy,  using the Correct Score Market as an example.
In a horse race, Bookies may Lay a few runners against the field, but another strategy is to Lay several runners but make only one targeted runner a loser.
With this 1 Loser strategy, we are doing the same thing, but in the Correct Score Market of a football game on Betfair.
We are not Laying the whole field, but just a few of the runners (score lines).

Using this 1 Loser strategy, we win on all score lines except one.
If we stake correctly, we can reduce our liabilities on one targeted score line by laying other score lines.
This is not the same as Laying a single score line.
Using this 1 Loser Strategy :-

We have only one score line against us, but with reduced liabilities.

All the others are running for us.

Any score lines that we don’t Lay, are skinners for us – ALL our Lays are successful, and we clean up.

Example.
There are normally 17 score lines including “Any Other Score” that we can Lay.
We could Lay 4 score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for us.

We Lay our First score line, which could be any one of the 17.
Then we Lay a 2nd score line, a 3rd, and a 4th.
We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish.
These 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Lays reduce our liabilities on our First Lay, just as any normal series of Lays would do, but if we stake correctly :-

If the winner does NOT come from the 4 horses (or in this case we don’t hit the winning score) that we have layed, we have 4 successful lays, and we clean up, with no payout.

If the winner comes from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit.

If our First score line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4.

Another example.
The shortest priced score line may be 1-0.
You may choose to make that your first Lay, and Lay all other scores up to 2-2.
Providing the game does not end with a score of 1-0, you will make a profit on every other Lay.

If the game ends with a score of 0-0, or any score up to 2-2 except 1-0, you are a winner.

If the game ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever.
You clean up, winning the total £££ of all your Lays.

You will only lose if the game ends 1-0, but your 1-0 liabilities will have been reduced by your Lays on the other scores up to 2-2.

You may choose some other score for your First Lay such as 3-3, and Lay some other scores, such as 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2.

If the game does not end 3-3, but ends with another score that you have Layed 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, you make a profit on your Lays.

If the game ends in a score that you have not Layed, you clean up, winning the total £££ of all your Lays.

Your only payout would be on 3-3, but your 3-3 liabilities will have been reduced by your Lays on 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2.

All you need to do to achieve this, is stake correctly.

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STRATEGY #4 – 2 LOSERs STRATEGY (FOOTBALL)

This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose.
Once again, we do not Lay the whole field, but a few score lines..
The procedure is exactly the same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose.

Liabilities on score lines 1 and 2 will be reduced by the additional Lays on score lines 3 upwards.
This strategy of targeting 2 score lines, has 2 advantages, but one additional drawback :-

A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2.

A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1.
This strategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short odds.

The downside is that we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1.

If the winner does NOT come from the score lines that we have Layed, all our Lays are successful and we clean up, with no payout.
If the winner comes from score lines 4, 5, 6, etc., we still make a profit.
If one of the first 2 score lines wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on the other score lines, particularly score line 1 or score line 2.

This is not the same as just Laying 2 score lines.
We are reducing our liabilities on 2 targeted score lines by laying lesser amounts on additional score lines. Using any of the basic systems on this page will yield you a modest return, over time. They are quite labour-intensive though and you will have a great deal more success using Sports Trader or Lucky 7 Naps (Read our review).

RECOMMENDED BETFAIR TRADING PRODUCT

sports traderIf you want to earn money from trading on Betfair and get to a stage where you are your own boss then we recommend you check out Tony Hargraves website, www.thesportstrader.com. You can also check out our full sports trader review here. You do not require any previous knowledge of horse racing, football, cricket, tennis (however every little bit helps) and you can start with a bankroll as low as £25.

Be in control of your own destiny and soon you will forget what an alarm clock actually sounds like. Tony  has been one of the best Betfair traders since 2008. You can check out his reasonably priced trading eBooks, live courses as well as genuine testimonials on his website here