Lincoln Doncaster Horse Racing Trends & Tips

On Saturday 29th March, the English flat horse racing season officially starts with racing from Doncaster. The big feature race is the Lincoln 1 mile Handicap.

Last week we were able to predict a shortlist of 4 for the Irish Lincolnshire with the winner getting backed in from 10/1 to 5/1 and winning comfortably. If you had got on when we posted our analysis then give yourself a pat on the back.

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Before I get into the analysis of this years Lincoln , lets take a look at the horse racing trends over the past 17 winners of this race.

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Let’s make our shortlist for the Lincoln

To win a race of this caliber you need to pick a horse who races prominently and a horse who is a proven on a galloping track. 20+ runner handicaps on a flat galloping track like Doncaster will be run at a furious pace, therefore finding good early position is vital to win here.

The race is forecast to be run on soft going so I eliminated any horse who has not won on Heavy -> Good to soft over the past 12 months. This leaves 5 horses remaining

  • Spa’s Dancer
  • Tres Coronas
  • Levitate
  • Consign
  • Ocean Tempest
  • Hi There
  • Off Art

I then remove any horse who is not a Front runner or prominent racing horse. I paid particular attention to their last 3 runs when coming to this conclusion.

This left only 4 horses

  • Spa Dancer
  • Levitate
  • Ocean Tempest
  • Off Art

I then remove any exposed horse who has not won class 2 or better race in the past 24 months which leaves 3 runners

  • Levitate
  • Ocean Tempest
  • Off Art

I then had a quick look at the race and pinpointed that the 2 front runners in the race are drawn 9 and 15. If we look at the draw of our remaining shortlist, they are 8, 3 & 15 respectively. This bodes well for Levitate and Off Art as even though there will be a fast pace, they will be helped even more if they stay close to the front runners that are drawn next to them. Also when we look at the recent form of Ocean Tempest, he hasn’t been doing much in the UAE and he has never won an all age handicap in this class yet.

Therefore it’s time to make a decision on how to bet this race. Lets take a look at the current prices on offer.

Off Art – 8/1 at RaceBets.com

Levitate – 12/1 at RaceBets.com

Bet: Back both to win 1 point each at RaceBets.

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