Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Just two meetings being televised this Saturday, Newmarket and Newbury, and these two courses are notoriously difficult to pick winners at – especially in handicaps. There are three races from Newmarket being televised, all handicaps including one confined to grey horses, that is always a great spectacle to see those greys belting down the July course in the hot August sunshine. Across at Newbury ITV are covering four races with just one handicap involved, the other three are top class stakes races including a Group 2 and Group 3. The going at both tracks is a contentious issue with Newmarket declared as Firm and Newbury Good to Firm with watering, after Haydock watered last week the firm conditions were changed to good after the first race.So if you were backing a top of the ground horse in the morning you were wasting your money as happened with Global Giant, Frankie Dettori said after the race he was unsuited by the going which he described as loose. So take care and check the going just prior to racing, here are my early thoughts for value and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.40 Newmarket. Karibana
3.15 Newmarket. Case Key
2.25 Newbury. Jahbath
3.35 Newbury. Breathtaking Look
Beginning with the 2.40 at Newmarket, the Betway Handicap run over 7 furlongs on the July Course. Here we have a very competitive handicap and the bookmakers choice seems to be Broughtons Gold, a winner of two of his last three races however these were really modest affairs run in slow times. The latest victory at Windsor was run on good/soft ground and Tom Clover’s charge won’t find that here. Recall The Show from Mick Quinn’s yard seems a handy sort hitting the frame four times in six outings, his latest run behind the smart Lexington Dash showed good form. He can go well if he handles the ground. The rest at the bottom of the handicap make little appeal and my choice here is top weight Karibana. Trained by Richard Hughes this colt has been a revelation since moving from the all-weather to turf this season,he got home by the narrowest of margins at Newbury then came here to HQ to win over the course and distance a fortnight ago. He scooted up that day on firm going and should have no trouble carrying a penalty to take this.
Newmarket’s 3.15 is the Betway Grey Horse Handicap and I really enjoy watching these greys galloping down the July course. The winner on two of the last three occasions has been Michael Appleby’s Case Key and he he turns out again to carry on his successful run. He won easily last year after making all and he can do the same thing again after showing good form since lockdown. He won well at Leicester in June then ran a good second at Yarmouth last month in preparation for this race. At the top of the handicap is Phil McEntee’s Split Down South but all his form is on the all-weather and it would be surprising to see him transfer that to turf. Endowed looks a handy sort from Richard Hannon’s yard, this gelding has won on firm at Windsor last year but his runs this season have not been very exciting.Buccaneers Vault from Paul Midgley’s yard goes well on this ground and has been showing good form on the northern courses but Newmarket can be a different matter he would do well to be placed. But I take Case Key to make it three out of four.
Moving to Newbury at 2.25 we have the Cold Ash Handicap run over the tracks straight mile. David O’Meara’s Orbaan has top weight in this, the gelding has been running fairly well this year and had a fine win at York last month at a big price. He was outpaced at the same course at the end of the month and it seems the handicapper has his measure. Afaak is in the lineup for Charles Hills and he has won previously in this class of contest but he has failed to get his head in front this season and is still high enough in the weights. Prince Of Harts from Stuart Williams’s yard brings good form from the end of last season but that is on ground much softer than he will find here even with the watering. Pride Of America ran in France last time and was a good second for trainer Harry Dunlop, he may well run into a place here. The horse I like the look of most is Jahbath, a four time winner on the all-weather for trainer William Haggas. On his first run on turf for some time he ran a creditable fourth after being hampered at the start, he stayed on at the finish that day and can improve on that run.
The big race of the day is the Hungerford Stakes at 3.35, a 7 furlong contest down the Newbury straight. The favourite here is Dream Of Dreams from Sir Michael Stoute’s stable and although he has not won for 15 months he has been running in some pretty elevated company. His only run this year was a fine second behind Hello Youmzain at Royal Ascot where he was only beaten a head. Glorious Journey won at Meydan in January but ran disappointingly on his British reappearance for trainer Charlie Appleby at Glorious Goodwood last month. There is a strong challenge from the 3-year-olds with William Haggas’s Surf Dancer and Richard Hannon’s Threat. The former won at York last month with Lincoln Bright and Symbolize behind him, I expect him to confirm that form and put up a bold show. Threat has been highly tried and drops down in class here after running down the field behind Oxted at Newmarket. But the firm going guides me towards Stuart Williams’s Breathtaking Look who is looking for her first victory since lockdown. She was second behind Oxted at Newmarket in June then Queen Jo Jo at York in July. This is top class form and given the going she needs she can take this prestigious contest.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.40 Newmarket. Karibana
3.15 Newmarket. Case Key
2.25 Newbury. Jahbath
3.35 Newbury. Breathtaking Look