Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
The ITV cameras travel North of the Border this week for Ayr’s big day of the year, the Ayr Gold Cup, and a maximum field of 25 is expected. This Class 2 handicap is backed by the Class 2 Silver Cup, which is a consolation race for those who did not make the cut for the Gold Cup.
Added to these races is a further Class 2 handicap, a Listed race and a Group 3, a great card. But not to be outdone, there is also a fine card at Newbury. There are four televised races from the Berkshire course, featuring two Class 2 handicaps, a Group 2, and a Group 3.
So, a veritable feast of Autumn racing to look forward to this week, with nine races on offer, all of a high calibre, and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.15 Ayr. Theoryofeverything
3.35 Ayr. Aramram
2.05 Newbury. Stressfree
2.40 Newbury. Theory Of Tides
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
I will begin at Ayr with the 1.15, the Ladbrokes “Free Bet At Ayr” Handicap, which is a Class 2 contest run over one mile. One of the top weights is Kevin Ryan’s Hi Royal, a past course and distance winner from 2022. Since then, he has done very little.
The same cannot be said of the other top weight, Michael Dods’s Northern Express, who is one of the stable’s stars. He has won at Ayr, but that was four years ago, and he is basically a 7-furlong horse.
Roger Varian’s Khafiz has won two lowly races this season, then ran in a Group 3 race but was well beaten. He returns to the handicap company, and a better run is expected.
David O’Meara’s Cerulean Bay has hit the post on his last two runs, finishing second at York and Ascot last month, but he has plenty of weight.
Another O’Meara’s runner is Duke’s Command who won a Class 4 at Haydock earlier this month but this is a major step up in class.
Tim Easterby has a couple at the bottom of the handicap, Barley and Leadenhall. The former ran a fine second on his penultimate start last month, but disappointed in a hot handicap at York, finishing fourth. A better run is expected.
As for Leadenhall, he has won two Class 4s this season but was behind Barley at Ripon.
I like another O’Meara entry, Theoryofeverything, who won here at Ayr in July. Since then, he has run in a couple of hot races at Goodwood and Ascot without being disgraced. A bold run is expected.
The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup, the big race of the day, is at 3.35. This Class 2 race is run over 7 furlongs. Top weight is Richard Spencer’s Two Tribes, who won at Goodwood and Ascot in the summer, then ran a fine 4th at York last month.
A lot of these runners meet each other several times throughout the year and the winner last month at York was Northern Ticker for Michael Dods but he has 5 lb penalty for that win.
Another Dods runner was second that day, Commanche Falls. He is a past course and distance winner at Ayr, and he can go close.
Clive Cox’s Flash Harry gained a fine victory at Goodwood last month, but this young horse has yet to encounter the push and shove of a big field like this. His time will come.
Ivan Furtado’s Alfa Kellenic ran up a six-timer last season but was then well beaten in a Listed race at Newmarket last October. This is his first run this year for his new yard, and he is probably best watched in this company.
Kevin Ryan’s Ain’t Nobody usually runs in Class 1 company and was second in the Nunthorpe last month. He was then tried in the Sprint Cup at Haydock earlier this month but was well beaten. This is his first run in handicap company, and his mettle will be tested.
I like Richard Hannon’s Aramram, who was second in last year’s Silver Cup here at Ayr, and has been aimed at this ever since. He won at Newbury in May and has run with credit since.
Moving south to Newbury and the 2.05 is the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap, a Class 2 contest run over 1m 5 1/2f. This is a very open renewal of this race with several horses vying for favouritism, two of which are trained by William Haggas, Castle Cove and Dramatic Star.
The former was a winner at Chester in May but has been unsuccessful in two outings since this is his first run over this distance.
Dramatic Star ran a fine second beaten only a neck at Haydock earlier this month and is expected to go close.
James Tate’s Majestic Warrior disappointed at York last month after winning at Thirsk in April. A better run is required.
Ian Williams runs Beylerbeyi has run up a fine treble this summer and has put in a couple of good performances after being upped in class after those victories. His run at Doncaster last time, when he finished second, was particularly pleasing. He is one to consider.
But I go with David O’Meara’s Stressfree, the top weight. He won at Haydock in May and has run in some top-class handicaps with credit since. His weight is somewhat worrying, but I think he can overcome that.
At 2.40 it is the Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a Class 2 race run over 1m 2f. Karl Burke’s Almosh’her won both his first starts this season at Kempton and York but has run inexplicably poorly since, the jockey saying he has run too free. He is best watched here.
Top weight is Roger Varian’s Defiance, who has run well without success in his three runs this season. A bold run is expected.
George Boughey’s Dante’s Lad almost added to his two early-season wins at York earlier this month when he was only beaten half a length. But this is tougher.
Bottom weight is Owen Burrows’s Night Step, who has won twice and been runner-up twice this season. He is upped in class here and may hit the frame.
I like John and Thady Gosden’s Theory Of Tides, who is still learning his trade after two wins as a 3-year-old. He has had just one run this season, finishing a fine fourth just three-quarters of a length behind Dante’s Lad. He is 2 lbs better off here, and that may be enough to turn the tables.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.15 Ayr. Theoryofeverything
3.35 Ayr. Aramram
2.05 Newbury. Stressfree
2.40 Newbury. Theory Of Tides
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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