Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Two very good meetings to look forward to this Saturday as we move into Christmas week. Ascot and Haydock will be decked out with tinsel and holly prior to the big day itself.
Ascot, especially has a top class card with the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, two Class 1 Premier Handicaps and a Class 2 Graduation Chase.
Meanwhile, Haydock will feature a Class 1 Listed Race and the Class 2 Tommy Whittle Chase, which is always a very competitive contest.
So six fine races to look forward to this Christmas week, here are my thoughts and my Lucky Fifteen, good luck to everyone and wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.25 Ascot. Kateira
3.00 Ascot. The Changing Man
3.35 Ascot. Be Aware
2.05 Haydock. Regal Blue
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
The 2.25 at Ascot is the Howden Long Walk Hurdle. This Grade 1 contest is run over 3m 1/2f and always attracts some of the best long distance hurdlers and this year is no exception.
The warm favourite is Olly Murphy’s Strong Leader who won a Grade 1 at Aintree last April then on his seasonal reappearance he went to Newbury last month and romped home against a small field in a Grade 2. He will take all the beating.
Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo won this last year but he disappointed in his next two runs. This is his first run of the season. However, he goes well fresh.
The Irish trainers have a strong hand here with four runners, Henry de Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake was third behind Strong Leader at Aintree beaten 5 lengths.
Gordon Elliott’s The Wallpark added to his summer wins with a fine victory in a handicap at Cheltenham in October. This is much tougher.
William Durkan’s Eagle Fang has not shown the form required here, but Charles Byrnes’s Shoot First is a different matter. After showing a clean set of heels to his 14 rivals at Haydock in Grade 3 last month, he looks the best of the Irish runners.
I take a chance with the in-form stable of Dan Skelton and his mare Kateira, who won a Grade 3 at Aintree in April and then hit two out at Wetherby on her seasonal debut. She then won going away at Kempton last month, and although she is upped in trip here, her mare’s allowance of 7lb can make all the difference.
Ascot’s 3.00 is the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase. This is a Grade 3 Premier Handicap run over 3 miles. Top weight here is Paul Nicholls’s Threeunderthrufive, who was a course and distance winner here at Ascot last February, then disappointed at Sandown on his final outing. He is probably best watched on his first run of the season under 12st.
Kim Bailey’s Trelawne was pulled up at the Cheltenham Festival in March but won at Haydock on his seasonal debut in a Class 2 chase last month. This is tougher.
Last year’s winner, Victtorino, trained by in-form Venetia Williams, returns to defend his crown after running third in a Grade 3 at Newbury last month. He will strip fitter for that run and has been set up for this.
But I really like the look of Joe Tizzard’s The Changing Man off his low weight, he was a fine third at Newbury last month despite hitting the last and providing his jumping is in order he has the ability to take this.
The 3.35 is the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle, this is a Grade 3 Premier Handicap run over 1m 7 1/2f. Sam Thomas has the top weight with Steel Ally who won a Class 2 at Haydock last month. I fear he has too much weight in this company.
Alan King’s Favour And Fortune won the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April, but he is returning after a hock injury and is probably best watched.
Fergal O’Brien’s Dysart Enos had his run of wins stopped at Cheltenham last month when he stepped up to Graded company. He will have learnt from that run.
Paul Nicholls must feel his unbeaten Kabral du Mathan is ready to play with the big boys and move into Graded company. However, I feel this young horse’s best runs will come in the future.
I like Hughie Morrison’s Secret Squirrel, and he can go well with his low weight if he shows last season’s form.
But my preference is Dan Skelton’s Be Aware, who ran a close second on three occasions last term, but best by far and away was his performance at Cheltenham last month when he was only beaten half a length in a top-quality Grade 3 contest. He can gain recompense for that defeat here.
Moving north to Haydock and the 2.05 is the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase, a Class 2 contest run over 3m 1 1/2f. The top weight is last year’s winner, Famous Bridge, in the Trevor Hemmings colours and trained by Nicky Richards. He ran a good second on his seasonal reappearance at Kelso in October in preparation for this. His weight may be a problem.
Venetia Williams runs Frenchy Du Large, who was a good second earlier this month on his first run for 21 months. He can go close.
James Owen’s East Street won over this course and distance earlier this month when he ran up three wins in a week, but they were Class 4s and this is a lot tougher.
Greenall & Guerriero’s Jacks Parrot won twice last April, then ran down the field on his seasonal debut at Carlisle earlier this month. I have a feeling he can go well off bottom weight.
But my idea of the likely winner is Jonjo & AJ O’Neill’s Regal Blue, who has won two of his last four outings and pulled up in the other two! He won a Class 2 at Uttoxeter last March, and his record at Haydock is a first and a second in two runs, so he obviously likes the track and gets my vote.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.25 Ascot. Kateira
3.00 Ascot. The Changing Man
3.35 Ascot. Be Aware
2.05 Haydock. Regal Blue
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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