Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
I was really looking forward to this week’s racing from York and Ascot until I saw the cards. While it is not in doubt that the racing on offer is of the highest order, I have my doubts about whether it is that competitive.
Of the four televised races from Ascot, three of them are Class 1s, all of which have single number fields, one of which is the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes worth £1,250,000. WOW!
The other race on the card is a Class 2 handicap run over the straight 7 furlongs. While of the three races being shown by ITV Racing from York, there is a Group 2 with five runners and two handicaps, one of which is a 5-furlong dash for jump jockeys and the other a 6-furlong sprint.
So the seven races being shown feature four Stakes races none of which have more than 9 runners and three sprint handicaps one of which is a race for jump jockeys, making it something of an anomaly.
So I have looked through the cards to try and find some value and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.05 York. Birkenhead
2.40 York. Trefor
3.00 Ascot. Fresh
3.40 Ascot. Bluestocking
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
I will begin at Ascot with the 3.00- the Moët and Chandon International Stakes. This is a Class 2 Handicap run over 7 furlongs. Michael Bell’s Carrytheone is the current favourite. He won a similar race at Newmarket in May but has been unsuccessful in his last couple of outings. He has, however, been placed and may be once again.
Top weight is Al Jehani’s Make Me King, who won at Newcastle last month. Prior to that, he had run down the field here at Ascot.
Michael Dods’ Northern Express has run well all season without success. His latest run was a fine second at York a fortnight ago. He can go close.
Michael Appleby’s Billyjoh won a couple of Class 4s earlier in the year. He has improved since then, and his fine second at Royal Ascot was the highlight of his season so far. He deserves a victory, but I’m not sure he will get it here.
I will go for James Fanshawe’s Ascot specialist Fresh, who has won here three times. He ran second here a fortnight ago over a sharp 6 furlongs, but he is better over 7 furlongs, and he is my selection.
The big race of the day is at 3.40, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Quipco Stakes, a Group 1 contest run over 1m 4f. Aiden O’Brien has a third of the field here with three of the nine runners, the best of which is probably the enigmatic Auguste Rodin.
This inconsistent yet very talented horse flopped badly last year, but he is a six-time Group 1 winner and was a brilliant winner of the Prince Of Wales Stakes here at Ascot in June. He is the short priced favourite and a reproduction of that form should see him win this comfortably.
But what if the real Auguste Rodin doesn’t turn up well? There are several waiting on the sidelines to topple this great champion, and one of which could be Charlie Appleby’s Rebel’s Romance. This globetrotting superstar has won all over the world, latterly at Sha Tin in May and Meydan in March, both Group 1s. He is a major challenger.
I give a chance to Ralph Beckett’s Bluestocking, who won at York in May then at The Curragh in June. She gets the 3lbs mares allowance and that may just be enough to give her the edge.
Moving north to York and the 2.05 is the Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap. This is a Class 4 race run over York’s sharp 5 furlongs. Last year’s winner, Soul Seeker, returns to defend his crown and David O’Meara’s gelding has a good chance. He should at least make the frame.
Iain Jardine’s Never Dark won at Nottingham earlier this month but was disappointing here at York a fortnight ago.
Tim Easterby’s Whisky McGonagall was a winner on the all-weather at Newcastle in April. He ran poorly at Musselburgh later in the month and has not been seen since.
Rebecca Menzies’ bottom-weight Golden Rainbow has won a couple of lowly contests recently at Carlisle and Thirsk, but much more is required here.
I prefer Paul Midgley’s Birkenhead, who won this in 2022. He has shown fine form recently, winning two of his last three and finishing second in the other. That sort of form gives him every chance.
The 2.40 at York is the Sky Bet Dash Handicap. This is a Class 2 contest run over 6 furlongs. The top weight here is Karl Burke’s Korker. He has recently been running in Listed company without success and he has never won over 6 furlongs.
Burke also runs Silky Wilkie, who ran a close second at Hamilton this month, but he has plenty of weight.
Kevin Ryan’s Bergerac won on the all-weather at Newcastle last month, but this looks tougher.
David Evans’s Radio Goo Goo won at Chester at the end of June, then earlier this month was a fine fourth beaten only half a length in a blanket finish at Newmarket.
I fancy Tim Easterby’s Manila Scouse to be placed after winning at Hamilton in June, then returning there to finish a disappointing 4th earlier this month. He can do better.
But my fancy to win this race is Charles Hills’ Trefor, who won twice in June at Windsor and Newmarket. He has been rested for the last month, but there is surely more to come from this talented young horse.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.05 York. Birkenhead
2.40 York. Trefor
3.00 Ascot. Fresh
3.40 Ascot. Bluestocking
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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