Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
All eyes are on Merseyside this Saturday as Aintree hosts the biggest betting race of the year; the Grand National and the ITV cameras are there to bring you all the thrills and spills. Their whole programme is concentrated on Aintree, with the first five races on the card being televised in the four-hour programme, so expect to have to sit through a lot of waffle between races.
All five races shown are Class 1s, with three being top-class handicaps and two Grade 1s, so there is certainly no lack of quality at this year’s renewal.
I have run the rule over the contests looking for value, and here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen, which includes my selection for this year’s Grand National. Good luck, everyone.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
1.20 Jeriko du Reponet
1.55 Miami Magic
2.30 Doctor Ken
4.00 Hewick / Monbeg Genius(e/w)
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning with Aintree’s 1.20 the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle a Class 1 contest run over 3m 1/2f. Joint second in the handicap is Nicky Henderson’s Jeriko du Reponet, who has not lived up to last season’s promise. However, he ran a fine second at the Cheltenham Festival, and I think he can gain recompense for that defeat here.
Olly Murphy’s Act Of Authority is another, who ran second at the Festival. He has had a fine season but may need some cut in the ground.
Jonjo & AJ O’Neill’s Bill Joyce won at Carlisle and Sandown before Christmas and has run third on two occasions since then. More is required.
Gordon Elliot runs Timmy Tuesday, who won at Ayr in January and then was victorious at Down Royal last month. He can go close.
Dan Skelton’s Nurse Susan has had just one outing in the last 15 months, which was at Cheltenham last month, where she finished a disappointing 11th. I expect an improvement on that run, but I can see no further than Jeriko du Reponet.
The Turners Mersey Novices Hurdle is at 1.55. This Grade 1 race is run over 2m 4f. Nicky Henderson’s Lulamba takes advantage of her sex and age allowance to come here getting 10lbs from the rest of the field. She won at Ascot in January and ran a fine race at Cheltenham last month, finishing second beaten only a neck. A bold run is expected.
Fergal O’Brien’s Horaces Pearl has moved well into novice hurdling this season and is unbeaten. However, this is a step up in class.
Gordon Elliott’s Honesty Policy won easily at Navan in February, then followed that up with another victory at Leopardstown last month. He is upped in trip here.
Henry de Bromhead’s Koktail Divin won easily at Leopardstown last month, but he needs plenty of cut in the ground.
I go for Stuart Edmunds’s Miami Magic, who, after two victories before Christmas, has been highly tried in Graded races, coming up second at Kempton and here at Aintree. I think he has learnt from those races and can be successful here.
At 2.30, we have the William Hill Handicap Chase, a Class 1 Premier Handicap run over 3m 1f on the Mildmay course. The favourite here is Lucinda Russell’s Myretown, who romped home at Cheltenham last month in a Grade 3. This was his third win in what has been a long season. This may be a bridge too far.
The Hobbs &White trained Imperial Saint has won three times this season here at Aintree but has risen in the weights in that time. This is a step up in class.
Jonjo & AJ O’Neill’s Peaky Boy won at Cheltenham last November, his third victory at that track. He was third at Ascot in February, then skipped the Festival to come here. He is expected to do well.
Richard Hobson’s Docpickedme won a Grade 3 at Doncaster in January and has been kept for this race. He is another who is expected to go well.
I just prefer Olly Murphy’s Doctor Ken, a past Aintree winner. He is very lightly raced, so he has his problems and is difficult to get right, but I just give him the nod over Docpickedme.
So we come to the big race. At 4.00, it is the Randox Grand National Handicap Chase, a Class 1 Premier Handicap run over 4 miles 2 1/2 furlongs. One of Willie Mullins’s six runners is top weight, last year’s winner I Am Maximus, who has failed to land a blow in his two runs this season. He has 6 lbs more to carry than he did when storming home last year. This is a tough ask off 11st 12lb.
Gavin Cromwell’s Stumptown is one of the favourites after running up a hat-trick of wins, but two of those wins were in Cross-Country races at Cheltenham, where the standard of opposition is below what he will meet here.
Another Cromwell entry is Perceval Levallois who comes here after two Listed victories at Leopardstown in December and February. He can be there or thereabouts.
Greenall & Guerriero’s Iroko has been aimed at this race all season, but despite putting in some good performances, he has failed to get his head in front in four starts. More is required.
Thomas Gibney’s Intense Raffles is another of the favourites after winning last year’s Irish Grand National. He ran second in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse in February, but it does not look like he will get his preferred soft ground on this course.
Jonjo & AJ O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius was favourite for this race a couple of years ago. He won at Uttoxeter last month which should boost his confidence and he is one of my best outsiders for an each-way bet.
But my idea of the winner is John Hanlon’s Hewick. He won the King George at Kempton last season, and his form since then has been consistent, especially when he won at Thurles in the prep race last month. He will love the ground and is a top-class entrant.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
1.20 Jeriko du Reponet
1.55 Miami Magic
2.30 Doctor Ken
4.00 Hewick / Monbeg Genius(e/w)
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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