Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It’s a big day at Lingfield on Saturday where they stage their Oaks and Derby Trials and ITV are covering four races from the Surrey course, Walk Of Stars and Life Of Dreams look to highlight their chances for the big races themselves. However, the best value is at Ascot from where four races are being televised, three of which are big field handicaps so offering the best value for punters.
Haydock has a mixed meeting, one of the few that are featured in the country during the year.
The card contains what is the first big hurdle race of the new jumps season and I have highlighted it below. So a mix of codes for this week’s Lucky Fifteen and here are my thoughts for this week’s value bet.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.45 Ascot. Just Hubert
3.30 Ascot. Spirit Of The Bay
4.05 Ascot. Fresh
3.00 Haydock. West Cork
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Ascot with the 1.45 the Royal Ascot Local Schools Art Competition Handicap which is run over 1m 4f where Joe Tickle’s veteran Danehill Kodiak has top weight. This is his first run on the flat for 3 years but he did appear on a jumps course a mere 17 months ago, he is best watched.
Protected Guest trained by George Margarson has been plying his trade on the a/w this season and was very consistent. He came out for his first run of the year on turf last month and romped home at Nottingham.
David Menusier’s Flyin’ Solo finished last season by running a good seventh in the November Handicap at Doncaster, he may hit the frame here.
Joe Tizzard’s Mascat won at Wincanton last October and came out for seasonal debut last month and was only beaten a head at Epsom, he will go close.
But I like William Muir and Chris Grassick’s Just Hubert who is a course winner here at Ascot, he had a fine season last year with two victories. He is able to add to his tally.
At 3.30 it is the British EBF Fillies Handicap run over Ascot’s straight mile. Top-weight Soft Whisper trained by Saeed Bin Suroor has wintered in Dubai but was unsuccessful in a couple of outings and she seems to have loads of weight here.
Marco Botti’s Rising Star won at Newcastle in March but then flopped at Newcastle the following month. She has to improve to take this.
James Fanshawe’s Serenading was second to Rising Star at Newcastle and although he is 3lbs better off here, his best form has come on the all-weather.
I think the winner may come from the bottom of the handicap with Spirit Of The Bay and Strawberri.
Clive Cox’s Spirit Of The Bay won 4 times at the end of last season but was beaten 5 lengths at Doncaster last month.
Roger Varian’s Strawberri is making her seasonal reappearance after two wins last year. She finished her season with a fine second at Newbury in October on heavy ground. I just about give Spirit Of The Bay the nod.
The tote Victoria Cup is at 4.05 and last year’s winner River Nymph is here to regain this 7-furlong crown.
Clive Cox’s gelding was unable to build on that victory and on his only run this season on the a/w at Wolverhampton he failed to fire.
Top weight is Eve Johnson-Houghton’s Accidental Agent who won a Group 1 here at Ascot back in 2018. He showed he still retains some of that ability by winning at Newmarket on his seasonal debut last month but he has a lot of weight here.
Charlie Appleby’s One Ruler is fancied after coming back from Dubai where he ran twice without success, he is another with plenty of weight.
Appleby’s other runner Path Of Thunder also wintered in the Middle East and won once at Meydan in January but was beaten on his return to the UK, that was at Leicester last month.
Clive Cox’s Aratus won three times last season but could finish only third 9 lengths behind Path Of Thunder last time. He is 5lbs better off here but that may not be enough to reverse those placings.
Fresh runs for James Fanshawe and he was only beaten a short head last time at Kempton. He ran a good third last October here at Ascot after being badly drawn and he may improve on that to take this.
An outsider I like the look of is Kevin de Foy’s Alrehb who ran a good second at Haydock last month. He can hit the frame at a nice price.
For the final leg of the Lucky Fifteen, I will change codes and move to the 3.00 at Haydock, the Pertemps Network Swindon Handicap Hurdle which is run at just under 2 miles. The bookies’ favourite is an Irish raider John McConnell’s Anna Bunina who won the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr last month. She looks lightly treated and may go close.
Ben Pauling’s Severance ran consistently well last season and deserves a victory but he may have to settle for a place once again.
Philip Hobbs’s Luttrell Lad is another who has gone close in his last three races and will be all out to start the season on a high but he seems to find one too good too often.
Cormier won twice for Brian Ellison then went to the Cheltenham Festival but could finish only seventh. In front of him in fourth that day was Dan Skelton’s West Cork who reopposes here. He is a consistent type and was second to Anna Bunina at Ayr. He is 3lbs better off and can start the season on a high note.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.45 Ascot. Just Hubert
3.30 Ascot. Spirit Of The Bay
4.05 Ascot. Fresh
3.00 Haydock. West Cork
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Related Reading