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100 Winners Experiment – Specialising In UK Horse Racing

100 winners experiment

Every horse racing book, article or blog post dictates that to make money from horse racing, you must specialise.

We want to put this to the test!

We are going to pick an area of horse racing that historically we have not made any long term profits from and see if by specialising in this area, we can finally master it and start to make consistent profits. So what are will we concentrate on?

Drumroll please…

We are going to specialise in 5 and 6 furlong sprint races on all weather tracks!

We will post our selections every day until we have 100 winners. Then we shall look at our profit/loss and see if we can beat the bookies by specialising in one area of horse racing betting!

The 100 winners method

All sprint races boil down to speed and pace.

Therefore we shall start off this experiment using some basic criteria

  • speed figures for the going
  • speed figures for the distance
  • pace analysis
  • finding the value bet

Speed Figures For The Going

We will list the top 3 ranked horses who have performed the fastest on the all weather surface.

Speed Figures For The Distance

We will list the top 3 ranked horses who have performed the fastest over the distance.

Pace Analysis

We will disregard all horses who do not either front run or race prominently

Finding The Value Bet

If a horse appears in both the top 3 ranked horses for speed on the going and the top 3 ranked horses for speed at the distance as well as races prominently, then it becomes a live contender.

We then need to figure out what the value bet is. This is where the experiment gets interesting.

  • Will we make a profit to single win bets at advised prices, Betfair SP or SP?
  • Will we make money backing e/w at advised prices, Betfair SP or SP?
  • Will we make money backing 80/20 on Betfair (that’s 80% on place bet and 20% on win bet)
  • Will we make money DOBBING these selections (backing them to win before the off and laying them at half the price in play on Betfair to double our investment)?

The longer the experiment continues, we shall see what the most profitable option is. It may the case that we do not make any profit with the current method but we shall try and fix this as we carry out the experiment and see live results coming in.

100 Winners Experiment Expected Results?

As we are backing horses who like to race at the front and have shown best speed figures on going and distance, then it makes logical sense that their price will shorten in play. Therefore we expect to make a profit DOBBING the selections.

We also expect that a number of our selections will get caught late on the line which will lead to a lot of 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes, therefore we hope to make a profit backing each way or by placing 80/20 bets on Betfair.

What we do not know at the moment is if we are going to get a value price? We are hoping we will as we are using speed figures that the common recreational punter does not use. We are also using pace analysis which again is not that common knowledge.

However we do know that the betting syndicates use this information, so we assume that we must get our bets on using early morning prices before they start to take all the value. If this assumption is correct, we will beat the SP price on a regular basic which will leave us in profit over the long run.

Actual Results?

Now its time to put our theory to the test. Follow along each day to see how we perform. We will send our analysis out via email and we shall update this page with results once a week or so. Therefore make sure to optin to our email list if you have not done so already.

Wish us luck!

 

Current Update (9am 02/01/2016)

16 winners

+ 20.75 points profit

2nd January 2016 Selections

Southwell 12.15 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Razin Hell
Crosse Fire
Excellent Aim
Seamster
Fuel Injection

Speed Going + Distance + Prominent Runner

Razin Hell 7/1 Bet365
Crosse Fire 11/4 Boylesports

Crosse Fire looks primed to win this dropping in class and posting a decent speed figure last time out against weaker company.

 

SOUTHWELL 12.50 6F

Speed Going + Distance

 

Pull the Pin
Loud

Speed Going + Distance + Prominent Runner

Pull the Pin 14/1 Coral
Loud 10/1 William Hill

Not many front runners in this and it may fall to one of these at very good prices.

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1st January 2016 Selections

Southwell 2.05 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Anonymous John
Dungannon
Brother Tiger

Speed Going + Distance + Prominent Runner

Anonymous John 11/2 Coral
Dungannon 5/2 Coral

This looks like a very competitive race with lots of front runners so we are not very happy taking a price of 5/2 on the fav here. Both horses produced excellent times last time out so they are in good form and Anonymous John looks the value bet as he has a good draw and stable in flying form. Overall though we’re not too confident with either selection.

Have a Happy New Year!

 

28th December 2015 Selections

Lingfield 3.30 6f

Speed Going + Distance

Luis Vaz De Torres
State Of The Union
Renounce
Spellmaker
Jimmy’s Hall

Speed Going + Distance + Prominent Runner

Luis Vaz De Torres 8/1 BetVictor
State Of The Union 12/1 Bet365
Renounce 5/4 Betfred

Renounce is too short so we wouldn’t want to be backing this even if we do think it has the best chance of winning. If State Of The Union can get an early lead he may hold on for the win here, while Luis Vaz De Torres does have the best speed figure this year and has Tony Hamilton back on board for an inform Fahy stable. All 3 horses have conditions to suit and are well weighted.

 

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21st December 2015 Selections

Wolverhamptom 4.40 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Secret Asset
Light From Mars
Innocently
New Leyf
Archie Stevens
Ada Lovelace

Speed Going + Distance + Prominent Runner

Archie Stevens
Secret Asset
Light From Mars

This looks like an average pace race and none of these horses have won from the front before, so this will be interesting. Light from Mars has the best recent form but this drop to 5f is surprising and he has never won at that trip before. This is a watching brief for us, however the selections as always will go down in the results.

 

Results : Archie Stevens 6/1 1st

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19th December 2015 Selections

Lingfield 12.35 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Temple Road
Snow King
Ask The Guru
Picansort
Ohsosecret

Speed Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Temple Road
Snow King
Ask The Guru
Ohsosecret

This looks like a fast pace race with no strong front runners. Therefore we expect the winners to come from this 4. Temple Road has the best speed figures but after two wins on the trot, we think he is too high in the weights to win this. We also think Snow King has a bad mark.  Ask the Guru is 99 days off the track and doesnt have a good record when back after a break. His trainer is not in good form either so we will rule him out.

That leaves Ohsosecret as he is well weighted and trainer in cracking form. Currently 6/1 with Betfred.

 

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Southwell 3.00 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Abonos

Oli Strike

G+D+P

Abonos 66/1 Boylesport

Oli Strike 9/2 Ladbrokes

Abonos is a huge price here in a moderately fast paced race. It should suit these two horses really well and we are confident about these two performing well.

 

Chelmsford 5.40 6f

Speed Going + Distance

Hoofalong
Guishan
Money Team
Kingscroft
Foreign Diplomat

G+D+P

Hoofalong 5/2 Bet365
Guishan 11/2 Betfred
Money Team 5/1 Bet365

We really like Guishan and Money Team here. Guishan is the only out and out front runner and has 7lb claimer on today. Only negative is he is drawn widest, therefore if he can’t hold on for the win, we expect Money Team to pounce. Hoofalong is 5lbs heavier than his last winning mark and it may be too much for him to rack up back to back victories. At 5/2 its is not a value bet carrying that weight.

 

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15th December 2015 Selections

Southwell 2.30 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Borough Boy
Loumarin
Crosse Fire
Elusivity
Bapak Bangsawan

G+D+P

Borough Boy 8/1 Ladbrokes
Loumarin 6/1 Betfair
Crosse Fire 7/2 Paddypower
Bapak Bangsawan 14/1 Coral

There are three front runners in this race which implies a blistering pace. Therefore not confident of any of the 4 selections above.

Elusivity is a hold up horse and has so much weight in hand and the trainer is coiming into form. There is also money coming for it this morning so get on the 12/1 now at PaddyPower (sorry price now gone at time of sending email).

 

Southwell 3.30 6f

Speed Going + Distance

Abi Scarlet
Age Of Innocence
G + D + P

Abi Scarlet 8/1 Betfred

Horse has not ran in over 200 days so will not advise to back this horse.

Kempton 2.40 5f

Speed Going + Distance

Searchlight
Burning Thread
Pensax Lad
Red Stripes
Sandfrankskipsgo
Royal Birth
Desert Command
G + D + P

Burning Thread 4/1 Bet365
Red Stripes 7/1 BetVictor
Royal Birth 9/2 Stan James
Desert Command 7/1 Bet365

1 out and out front runner and two other very probable front runners in the race means a very fast pace here. Therefore not
very confident of these selections in this competitive race as may fall to a hold up horse such as Sandfrankskipsgo or Searchlight.

 

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12th December 2015 Selections

Southwell 11.25 5f

Speed Going + Speed Distance
Kinloch Pride
Midnight Destiny
Go Charlie

Speed Going + Speed Distance + Races Prominent

Kinloch Pride
Midnight Destiny
Kinloch pride has the best draw and the best speed figure. However there is a lot of pace in this race and it may be best suited to a held up horse. Therefore Go Charlie is one to still keep an eye on.

Southwell 1.40 5f

Speed Going + Speed Distance

Dark Side Dream
Scarborough
Come On Dave
Mappin Time

Speed Going + Speed Distance + Races Prominent

Dark Side Dream
Scarborough
Come On Dave

We don’t like Dark side Dream as it has the worst draw and is a front runner so will be too tired to win from there. He also has a poor record in Class 3 races.

Scarborough has ok draw but may not be classy enough either.

Come on Dave has a good mark and ok draw but again we are worried he wont be able to get the easy lead he wants.

This race is guaranteed to have lots of pace with 6 front runners in it.

This may suit Mappin Time if the front runners tire themselves out!

Kempton 6.15 6f

Speed Going + Speed Distance

Varsovian
Showtime Star
Elis Eliz
It Must Be Faith
Annonymous John

Speed Going + Speed Distance + Races Prominent

Varsovian
Showtime Star
Elis Eliz

The pace of this race should suit the three above. However it is a competitive race and we are not overly confident.

 

Kempton 6.45 6f

Speed Going + Speed Distance

Jaiyana
Compton Prince
Smart DJ
Top Cop

Speed Going + Speed Distance + Races Prominent

 

Jaiyana
Compton Prince

Pace will have slow pace and these two looked primed for a great run. Most confident selections so far.

 

Kempton 7.15 6f

Speed Going + Speed Distance

Burauq
Exentricity
Zebs Lad

Speed Going + Speed Distance + Races Prominent

 

Burauq
Exentricity
Zebs Lad

This looks like a weak race so confident winner will come from one of these.

 

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4th December 2015 Selections

Kempton 6.15pm 6f

Speed Going

El Viento
Mythmaker
Showtime Star

Speed Distance

El Viento
Mythmaker
It Must Be Faith
Showtime Star

G+D+P
El Viento 5/1 Bet365
Mythmaker 6/1 Betfair
Showtime Star 9/1 William Hill

 

3rd December 2015 Selections

Kempton 7.10 6f

Speed Going

Only Ten Per Cent
Ghost Train
Wild Flower
Blue Amazon

Speed Distance

Wild Flower
Royal Rettie
Only Ten Per Cent
Blue Amazon

G+D+P

Wild Flower 9/2 Ladbrokes
Blue Amazon 11/1 William Hill

Kempton 7.40

Speed Going

Burauq
Emperors Warrior
Black Vale

Speed Distance

Burauq
Emperors Warrior

G+D+P

Burauq 7/2 Betfair
Emperors Warrior 4/1 Bet365

 

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2nd December 2015 Selections

Lingfield 2.00 5f

Speed Going

Lightscameraaction
Red Stripes
Brother Tiger

Speed Distance

Red Stripes
Brother Tiger
Go Far
Waseem Faris
Scarborough

Lightscameraaction
G+D+P

Red Stripes 11/4 Betfred
Brother Tiger 12/1 StanJames

Lightscameraaction 9/2 Bet365

 

Kempton 4.05 6f

Speed Going

Perfect Words
Quantum Dot
Roy’s Legacy
Pull The Pin
Excellent Aim
Frozen Princess

Speed Distance

Prominna
Quantum Dot
Perfect Words
Roy’s Legacy
Excellent Aim
Frozen Princess

G+D+P

Quantum Dot 4/1 Bet365
Perfect Words 13/2 Stan James
Roy’s Legacy 15/2 Bet365
Excellent Aim 6/1 Betfair
Frozen Princess 7/1 Coral

Kempton 4.40 5f

Speed Going
Sandfrankskipsgo
Royal Acquisition
Pearl Acclaim
Newton’s Law
Burning Thread
Elusivity

Speed Distance

Sandfrankskipsgo
Royal Acquisition
Newton’s Law
Burning Thread
Doctor Parkes

G+D+P

Royal Acquisition 4/1 William Hill

 

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30th November 2015 Selections

WOLVES 4.05 5F

Speed Going

Oil Strike
Your Gifted
Miracle Garden

Speed Distance

Miracle Garden
Oil Strike
Fine And Dandy
Your Gifted

G+D+P
Oil Strike 9/4 Bet365
Miracle Garden 11/4 PaddyPower

KEMPTON 5.50 6f

Speed Going

Humour
For Ayman
Gold Beau

Speed Distance

Humour
For Ayman
Noverre To Go
Gold Beau

G+D+P
Humour 5/1 William Hill

 

The shape of the race for both qualifying races are moderate pace therefore we expect prominent or front running horses to win this race. We are very confident about the first race and both horses selected posted fantastic times in very fast paced races last time out.

We are worried about our selection in the 2nd race, Humour, as it is drawn in the worst position and even though it is the only front runner, it will have to waste a lot of energy to get to the front from that wide position. Therefore we are not as confident with this selection.

 

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27th November 2015 Selections

Only have time to write the selections today.

Wolverhampton 4.45 5F

Falsify 5/1 Boylesports

Lamps of Heaven 12/1 Betfred

You’re Cool 5/1 Betfair

Innocently 11/2 Boylesports

WOLVERHAMPTON 5:15 6F

Air Of York 11/10 Betfred

WOLVERHAMPTON 5:45 6F

Zebs Lad 13/8 Bet365

Mon Peitit Fleur 5/1 Betfred

China Excels 16/1 Stan James

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26th November 2015 Selections

Southwell 12.45 6f

Speed Going
Cloak And Degas
Point North
Llewellyn

Speed Distance
Cloak And Degas
Top Offer
Daylight
Pennine Warrior
Spirit Of Zeb

G+S+P
Cloak And Degas 14/1 PaddyPower

Chelmsford 4.10 6f

Speed Going
Ms Eboracum
Little Choosey
Wimboldsley
Devilution
We Have A Dream

Speed Distance
Wimboldsley
Ms Eboracum
We Have A Dream

G+S+P
Wimboldsley 13/2 Bet365
Ms Eboracum 13/2 Betfair
We Have A Dream 6/1 SkyBet

 

Chelmsford 6.40 6f

Speed Going
Stellarta
Hoofalong
Guishan

Speed Distance
Hoofalong
Guishan
Clubland
Stellarta

G+S+P
Stellarta 13/2 Coral
Hoofalong 7/2 Betfair
Guishan 4/1 Betfair

 

 

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25th November 2015 Selections

Lingfield 2.00 6F

Speed Going

Seychelloise
Birdie Queen
Rigolleto
New Rich

Speed Distance

Pettochside
Birdie Queen
Rigolleto
New Rich

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

 

Birdie Queen 8/1 William Hill

Rigolleto 9/1 Coral

 

Kempton 7.15 6F

Speed Going

Lancelot Du Lac
Rivellino
Intransigent
Seeking Magic

Speed Distance

Lancelot Du Lac
Rivellino
Seeking Magic

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Lancelot Du Lac 2/1 Bet365

Rivellino 8/1 Bet365

Seeking Magic 7/1 Bet365

 

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24th November 2015 Selections

Southwell 3.10 6F

Speed Going

Galvanize
Pull The Pin
Spowarticus
Tellovoi
Coiste Bodhar

Speed Distance

Pull The Pin
Spowarticus
Tellovoi
Coiste Bodhar

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Pull The Pin 11/2 Betfred

Spowarticus 7/2 Bet365

Tellovoi 9/2 BetVictor

Coiste Bodhar 15/2 William Hill

 

3.40 Southwell 6f

Speed Going

Air Of York
Culloden
Sir Geoffrey
Incomparable

Speed Distance

Age Of Innocence
Sir Geoffrey
Amenable
Culloden
Pancake Day
Air Of York

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Sir Geoffrey 8/1 Ladbrokes

Culloden 9/2 PaddyPower

Air Of York 10/3 William Hill

 

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21st November 2015 Selections

Lingfield 3.10 5f

Speed Going

Snow Cloud
Doctor Parkes
Diamond Charlie

Speed Distance

Snow Cloud
Doctor Parkes
Diamond Charlie

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Snow Cloud  4/1 Bet365

Diamond Charlie  4/1 Betfred

Lingfield 3.45 6f

Speed Going

Culloden
Autumn Tonic
Indominate Spirit
Encapsulated

Speed Distance

Autumn Tonic
Indominate Spirit
Encapsulated

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Autumn Tonic 7/2 Bet365

Wolverhampton 5.45 5f

Speed Going

Ada Lovelace
Crosse Fire
Ohsosecret
Secret Asset

Speed Distance

Ada Lovelace
Crosse Fire
Ohsosecret
Secret Asset

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Ada Lovelace 5/1 Betfred

Crosse Fire 8/1 Betfair sportsbook

Ohsosecret 4/1 Bet365

Secret Asset 8/1 William Hill

 

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17th November 2015 Selections

Lingfield 1.15pm 6f

Speed Going

Guishan
Fairway To Heaven
Money Team
Evening Attire

Speed Distance

Money Team
Showtime Star
Fairway to Heaven
Vincetti
Starfire

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Money Team Betfair 8/1

Lingfield 2.20 6f

Speed Going

Ortac Rock
Dawn Catcher
Top Cop
Bubbly Bailey
Seamoor Secret

Speed Distance

Costa Filey
Bubbly Bailey
Dawn Catcher

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Bubbly Bailey 10/1 Betfair
Dawn Catcher 13/2 Betfair

Lingfield 2.55pm 6f

Speed Going

New Rich
Exentricity
Only 10 Per Cent
Triple Dream
Encapsulated
Ghost Train
Jaiyana

Speed Distance

New Rich
Exentricity
Triple Dream
Encapsulated
Ghost Train

Top 3 Rated Going + Distance + Races Prominently

Exentricity 7/2 Bet365
Triple Dream 12/1 Bet365

 

Updated Results and Review

Yesterday, we provided 5 selections in our 100 Winners Experiment and we got off the board on the first day with a 12/1 advised price winner. It returned at 10/1 SP, but you could also have got 14.22 Betfair SP!
Triple Dream lead from start to finish and won by a nose!
Of the others we noted the following
Excentricity in the same race as Triple Dream was a big let down and we cannot find reason why he didn’t put up a better showing. It was drawn well but didn’t get the more prominent position it needed.
Dawn Catcher would have been a successful DOB as it traded at 2.2 in running. It got the lead we hoped for, but couldn’t maintain it.
Bubbly Bailey was positioned too far away from the pace to make any inroads in the same race.
Money Team was backed in from 8/1 to 5/1 but again looked like it wasn’t drawn with the pace to make an impact.
Even after the first day specialisation in 5f & 6f sprint races using our basic criteria, we think we spotted something that may be useful to us as we continue with the experiment.
However it may just apply to Lingfield so we will keep it under wraps until we have a larger sample size to judge correctly.
No qualifying races today but we shall be back tomorrow as there is 1 qualifying race at Lingfleld.
Actual Profit
After day 1 we produced £60 profit to £10 each way bets.
99 winners to go! poi