Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
This week, the television cameras are concentrating totally on Champions Day at Ascot with all races sponsored by Quipco. We are due to see some great horses and excellent racing, but I do have some concerns about the going which is currently rated as Soft, Heavy in Places. I am afraid this going is not very conducive to great racing. It is more about horses being able to slog through the mud and take on the top-rated animals.
So, with this in mind, I have looked through the cards and picked four contenders at decent prices who are proven on soft and have a chance of at least making the frame. but may also spring a surprise and take the honours. Here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Ascot e/w Lucky Fifteen
1.55 The Tin Man
2.30 Cabaletta
3.40 Addeybb
4.15 Alternative Fact
Beginning with the Champion Sprint Stakes at 1.55 over 6f and Sir Michael Stoute’s Dream Of Dreams is a warm favourite here. He did indeed have a dream run last time at Haydock, winning the sprint Cup. Everything fell perfectly for him. Will that be the case here on heavy going?
One Master from William Haggas’s stable won the Prix De La Foret for the third time a fortnight ago at Longchamp but he was trained for that and maybe over the top now. Oxted has been kept for this by trainer Roger Teal after winning the July Cup at Newmarket but he may be unsuited by the tacky ground.
Roger Varian’s Cape Byron hasn’t run since finishing 12th in this race last year and is best watched. Kevin Ryan runs Brando after his 3rd at York last week in the hope of a place. Although he likes some give in the ground, he doesn’t like it heavy. A place in front of him at York was The Tin Man, a proven Group 1 performer. Trained by James Fanshawe, he loves the heavy going and is a triple course and distance winner, including this race in 2016. He runs consistently well and although his last victory was in Haydock’s Sprint Cup two years ago, this race looks perfectly set up for him.
At 2.30, it is the Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes and this has opened up as Magical has gone for the Champion Stakes.
Ed Vaughan’s Dame Malliot is the likely favourite. She ran a good third at Longchamp last month where she had Laburnum, Wonderful Tonight and Even So behind her, I expect her to confirm that form as she acts on heavy.
Antonia De Vega is unbeaten this year for trainer Ralph Beckett but that has been on good ground so that goes against her.
Another horse who may be unsuited by the going is Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista as both her wins have come on good/firm. When she has run on good/soft, she has finished out of the frame.
I like the look of a rank outsider, Roger Varian’s Cabaletta. She won at Yarmouth on heavy last year and ran a fine second at Goodwood in August on her last run. That was on soft going and the drop in trip should suit her here.
The Champion Stakes is the big race of the day at 3.40 and the big guns are certainly out here. Top of the betting is last year’s winner Magical from Aidan O’Brien’s yard. She will have no trouble with the ground as it was soft last year. She is the one to beat after her latest victory at Leopardstown.
O’Brien also saddles Derby winner Serpentine, so a good gallop is certain. However, he has never won on soft. The trainer’s other runner, Japan, has more chance of making the frame if he can show the sort of form he produced in last year’s Arc.
John Gosden has a strong hand with Lord North and Mishriff. It says a lot that Frankie Dettori has opted to ride the latter who has won his last three races, the latest being on soft going at Deauville in August.
There is a French challenger, Skalleti, trained by Jean Reynier, who is a proven soft ground performer. His latest win was in the Prix Dollar at Longchamp where despite not having a clear run, he fought his way through to win.
Despite all these fine champions, I will side with an ex-handicapper from William Haggas’s yard, Addeybb, a gelding who has risen through the ranks to become a Group 1 winner in Australia. He has won on soft in his younger days and had a fine prep run for this when winning a Listed race at Ayr last month on good/soft. Haggas has prepared his Australian Champion well for this.
At 4.15, the Balmoral Handicap is the only such race on the card. Top weight is course specialist, Raising Sand, a four-time Ascot winner for trainer Jamie Osborne. He goes on soft but I fear he has too much weight here. Raeeq, from Brian Meehan’s yard, won here at Ascot earlier in the month but he has a 6lb penalty for that victory. Njord is highly fancied after winning at the Curragh in June for trainer Jessica Harrington. He has run into places since at Galway on soft/yielding.
David Barron’s Kynren has not won since October last year here at Ascot on soft, and now he has the ground he loves. He must be in with a chance to finally get off the mark. But I will take a chance with the bottom-weight, Ed Dunlop’s Alternative Fact, who will love the going as his three career wins have come on soft and he has the Frankie Factor.
Dettori has agreed to ride the gelding for the Northern trainer in this big handicap and he must have a great chance off such a lightweight.
Saturday Ascot e/w Lucky Fifteen
1.55 The Tin Man
2.30 Cabaletta
3.40 Addeybb
4.15 Alternative Fact