Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
The television cameras travel north of the border this Saturday to the lovely seaside town of Ayr for their annual jamboree that includes the Gold Cup. Backing this up is the consolation race, the Silver Cup along with a fillies Group race and a Listed race. The cameras are also at Newbury for four races, three of which are Group contests, this means that of the eight races being covered only three are handicaps and it is in those races where I can invariably find any value for this week’s multiple bet. So I have trawled through the Group contests for the last leg of this week’s Lucky Fifteen and as this strange concertinaered flat season draws towards it’s inevitable conclusion I have already got one eye on the upcoming jumps season, it’s only five weeks till Cheltenham’s first fixture! Yippee.
Please note all odds quoted below were correct at time of publication
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
- 1.40 Newbury. Moss Gill – Currently 5/1 on Bet365
- 2.15 Newbury. Tenbury Wells – Currently 9/2 on Bet365
- 2.30 Ayr. Brian The Snail – Currently 18/1 on Bet365
- 3.40 Ayr. Bielsa – Currently 11/1 on Bet365
A winning £1 Lucky 15 (£15 total outlay) will return total winnings of £11,814.00 – Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning with the 1.40 at Newbury, the Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes, a 5f sprint. Charles Hills has the bookies choice here, Equilateral, who has been running in top class company this season after winning at Meydan back in January. Unfortunately he has been unable to get his head in front and he meets some formidable opponents here. Clive Cox’s Tis Marvellous won at Leicester a fortnight ago but this is a major step up in class for his gelding. Lazuli won at Sandown in June in Listed company but has failed twice since and his trainer Charlie Appleby has been trying him at 6f but drops him back to 5f here. James Tate’s young filly Wise Words looks interesting, she was highly tried last time at Doncaster after winning at Leicester so the trainer must think something of her. But I like Moss Gill trained by James Bethell who’s York victory in July was eye catching. He was raced prominently last time and faded behind Tarboosh and Wise Word but if different tactics are used and he is held up he can come with a rattle to take this.
The Dubai Duty Free Handicap is at 2.15, a 10f middle distance race. Top of the handicap is Mark Johnson’s Maydanny who has two victories under his belt since lockdown but he ran poorly last time at York on soft going so he should prefer the ground here, I just have a worry about his weight. Richard Hannon’s Ouzo has been unable to get his head in front this year and steps up in trip hoping to do so here but he is another high enough in the weights. Starcat is fancied for trainer Hughie Morrison and he was considered good enough to run in the 2000 Gns but he has shown little since his novice victory last year. Ilaraab has run up a treble for William Haggas but he seems to have beaten very little in those contests. John Gosden runs Tenbury Wells, a smart 3-year-old, he has been gradually moving up in class with victories on the all-weather at Chelmsford and on turf at Ascot. He was only just touched off at Sandown last time and can make amends here. I must mention Richard Spencer’s The City’s Phantom who won comfortably at Yarmouth in July, he can trouble some of these off bottom weight and run into a place.
Moving north to Scotland, Ayr stages the QTS Silver Cup Handicap at 2.30, this is a notoriously difficult race to predict and the betting on the day can be good guide the winner. Among the top weights is William Haggas’s Aplomb who was well beaten at Haydock last time on soft going, he will appreciate the better ground he will find here. Atalanta’s Boy and Hyperfocus both carry penalties for recent victories and I rule that pair out. King’s Lynn has run just once since lockdown for trainer Andrew Balding and was a beaten favourite that day at Doncaster. David O’Meara’s Muscika won well at York in July but has shown very little since and is best watched. Admiralty from Roger Fell’s yard has run second on his last three occasions including a fine run at York in July when he had Arbalet and Rathbone behind him. I expect him to confirm that form but he may have to settle for a place once again. My preference is for Richard Fahey’s Brian The Snail who ran third in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood in August, that was an excellent effort. He was unsuited by the turns at Chester last time but if he is able to recapture the Goodwood form he can take this for his astute trainer.
And so we come to the big race of the day, the QTS Ayr Gold Cup Handicap, off at 3.40. Andrew Balding’s Stone Of Destiny won the big race at Doncaster last week but he has a 5lb penalty for that win and that may hold him back. Behind him in that race was Arecibo who finished fourth, David O’Meara’s gelding has been close up in his runs this year but may have to settle for a place once more. The class horse in the race is Mr Lupton trained by Richard Fahey, a 5f Group winner, he went over to the Curragh last week and won a 22 runner handicap but he has a penalty for that victory. Spanish City is finding it hard to win for trainer Roger Varian but he is slipping down the handicap and may be able to get involved in the finish here. Kevin Ryan has a couple here with good chances, Hey Jonesy won the Wokingham but may have too much weight while Bielsa has had this as his target since he went wrong in the same race, he will go close, Ryan has won this race on four occasions so he knows what is required. An outsider who can be placed at a nice price is bottom weight Lexington Dash who looked a real speedster back in June at Newmarket, if he gets good ground he can go well for Richard Hannon and claim a place. But I will back Kevin Ryan’s confidence in Bielsa to grab this prestigious prize.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
- 1.40 Newbury. Moss Gill – Currently 5/1 on Bet365
- 2.15 Newbury. Tenbury Wells – Currently 9/2 on Bet365
- 2.30 Ayr. Brian The Snail – Currently 18/1 on Bet365
- 3.40 Ayr. Bielsa – Currently 11/1 on Bet365
A £1 Lucky 15 (£15 total outlay) will return total winnings of £11,814.00 – Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365