Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
ITV are covering racing from three different courses this week with four races from Ascot, two from Haydock and just one from Newmarket. It’s not the most wonderful weekend of action but after the great racing over the last few weeks we can’t expect that to go on ad infinitum so I’ll give the very top horses a few days off! The meeting that interests me most this week is the replacement meeting for the Shergar Cup at Ascot where the four races being covered are all Class 2 handicaps over distances ranging from 6f to 2miles. These races give some of the smaller trainers a chance to earn some prize money and you can bet your life they have been targeting these contests for some time so we can expect some shocks and surprises amongst the results. With that in mind I have tried to find some value in these four televised races but as a punter, bear in mind any big price changes on raceday, so here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Ascot Saturday Lucky Fifteen
- 1.50 Dazzling Dan
- 2.25 Wild Hope
- 3.00 Holy Kingdom
- 3.35 Omnivega
Beginning with Ascot’s 1.50, the Bagshot Handicap the horse due to carry top weight is the highly fancied Highland Dress from Archie Watson’s yard. He lost a shoe last time at Newbury so can be forgiven that run, in his previous run he was a creditable second at Newmarket but his high weight is a worry. Woven from David Simcock’s stable ran well in the Wokingham consolation race but he has more on his hands here. Richard Hannon’s Theotherside has won twice already since lockdown and is at the bottom of the weights however he is stepping up in class here and perhaps this 3-year-old’s time is to come. Another at the bottom of the handicap is Andrew Balding’s Chil Chil who has run only once this season and was a creditable second in that run, he may figure in the finish but may have to settle for a place. For my choice I move higher up the handicap to Pam Sly’s Dazzling Dan who ran really well at Newbury last time behind Nahaarr, he is a class act on his day and he has the ability to take this contest.
The Sandhurst Handicap at 2.25 is a charge up the straight Ascot mile. The bookmakers fancy is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Jalaad who was a fine winner at York on his last outing three weeks ago where he ran on well in the final furlong but he is however stepping up in class here and has a 5lb penalty to boot. Cap Francais is top weight and also fancied, Ed Walker’s gelding won well at Haydock at the beginning of June but when stepping up to this grade on his next race he was well beaten at the same course. Roger Varian’s Game Player is having his first run for twelve months and although he is top class he is best watched here. The contender I prefer here is from the bottom of the handicap Kevin Ryan’s Wild Hope. It is the trainer’s only runner of the day at Ascot and he was a fine winner over Doncaster’s straight mile last time when running in cheekpieces for the first time. Ryan says of his gelding “he should be up to winning a big race like this one” and I will take that as a huge hint for his horse.
At 3.00 we have the Runnymede Handicap over 2 miles and there is a warm favourite for this in the shape of Roger Varian’s Australis. It is not surprising as the 4-year-old is a consistent performer but his two career victories have come on the all-weather and his five runner-up spots show he seems to find one too good too often. Charlie D is a dual winner this year and his latest victory for trainer Tom Dascombe at Newmarket where he was pressed hard was a fine fighting performance but he was well behind Sleeping Lion on his latest outing at Newcastle. The pair reoppose here and Charlie D has a 3lb pull, he may reverse those Newcastle placings but may still not have enough to win this. Paul Nicholls sends out Red Force One who was outpaced at Thirsk last time over 1m 4f, he has since won over the sticks at Market Rasen in mid-July so will be fit for this but may not have the speed. A dual winner at Newmarket in June is Tom Clover’s Holy Kingdom who can be forgiven his latest run in a Heritage Handicap at Newmarket in July where he was unsuited by the soft ground, the firm going he will find here will suit him well and he is the selection.
Finally we come to the Virginia Water Handicap at 3.35, this is over 1m 4f and is probably the most competitive race of the afternoon. I am tempted to give Ed Walker’s Caradoc another chance as he will love the firm going he will find here but he needs to be ridden more enterprisingly and the extra two furlongs over his usual distance looks a worry so I will pass him over. James Fanshawe’s Spanish Archer won last time out in a tight finish at Ripon where the first five were covered by half a length in a blanket finish, his fighting qualities can see him make the frame. Jeremiah won here at Ascot a fortnight ago for trainer Charlie Fellowes getting home by a nose, that was a tough outing and it remains to be seen if he has recovered in time for this. Roger Varian’s Look Closely is another who won last time here at Ascot but he is stepping up in class here. Against all these course winners I am siding with a horse that has never won on turf! That is David Simcock’s Omnivega who has won his last three races on the all-weather, he is unbeaten since being gelded and his latest victory at Kempton was particularly pleasing as he had some classy opponents behind him. The 5lb penalty for that win is a worry but he deserves a turf victory and at the moment is in the form of his life.
Ascot Saturday Lucky Fifteen
- 1.50 Dazzling Dan
- 2.25 Wild Hope
- 3.00 Holy Kingdom
- 3.35 Omnivega