Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Back to the bread and butter of the jumps season after the glory and glitz of Cheltenham, with six races from Uttoxeter and Kempton on ITV Racing, all of which are handicaps.
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Uttoxeter holds its top meeting of the year, with the Class 1 Midlands Grand National the highlight of a very good card. This is backed up by two Class 2 handicaps.
Meanwhile, at Kempton, they also have two Class 2 handicaps being televised along with a Class 3. So plenty to get stuck into, and here are my thoughts for value and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.35 Uttoxeter. John Barbour
3.00 Uttoxeter. Aworkinprogress
2.40 Kempton. Royal Infantry
3.18 Kempton. Teddy Blue
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning at Uttoxeter with the 2.25 the JenningsBet Handicap Hurdle a Class 2 contest run at just under 3 miles. Last year’s winner, Red Risk, trained by Paul Nicholls, returns to defend his crown, and his win at Musselburgh last month showed he is fully capable of doing so. He has 3lbs more to carry than last year, and the stable has not really been firing on all cylinders.
Philip Hobbs & Josh White saddle the top-weight French Ship, who won at Newbury and Cheltenham in the autumn. He ran in a Grade 2 at Haydock last month, but unseated his rider three out. His weight is a problem.
Ben Pauling’s Twig is two from two this term, including a victory over the National fences at Aintree in December. This is a prep run for the Grand National next month. He was 10th in it last year.
Dan Skelton’s A Pai de Nom has won four times this season in Class 3 and 4 races. When he did step up to a Class 2 contest, he could finish only third as a well-backed favourite.
I take a chance with Fergal O’Brien’s John Barbour, who has shown a liking for this course, having won here three times. He was only beaten a neck in a top-class contest at Ascot last month and can go one better here.
Uttoxeter’s big race of the day is the JenningsBet Midlands Grand National at 3.00. This is a Class 1 Premier Handicap run over 4m 2f. Top weight is Joe Tizzard’s Rock My Way who has 12st to carry over this marathon distance. However, he did carry that weight into second at Musselburgh last month and was a fine winner at Ascot last November. He will be there at the finish.
One of the Irish challengers is the current favourite, Emmet Mullins’s J’arrive de L’Est, who has been runner-up in two Cheltenham X-Country races in December and January, yet he has dodged that race at this year’s Festival to come here for this. He is a very short price for a horse who has never won over further than 2m 6f.
Dan Skelton’s big hope is Deafening Silence, who ran third in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December, then ran 4th in the Haydock trial last month. He may find this distance hard work.
I like Nick Gifford’s Aworkinprogress who was a course winner last November. Since then, he has won at Lingfield and looks the type for these long-distance races.
Moving to Kempton and the 2.40 is the Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Hurdle. This is a Class 2 handicap run over 2m 5f. Olly Murphy’s The Four Sixes won twice in the first half of this season, but he has disappointed in his last two outings.
Nicky Henderson’s La Pinsonnierre has been a consistent performer, having only finished out of the frame once in her 11 outings. But she has only won once and usually finds one or two too good.
Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls’s Marsiac won twice in the autumn. He has not been out since December and is upped in class here.
Martin Keighley’s Turndlightsdownlow has two wins here at Kempton, and since then, he has run two fine seconds at Wincanton and Sandown. He may hit the frame.
Paul Nicholls’s Fasol won at Musselburgh and Wincanton earlier this term. Since then, he has run twice here at Kempton and finished just out of the places.
I think Dan Skelton holds the answers here with runners at either end of the handicap. At the bottom is Tranquil Sea, who, despite some good runs this season, has let me down too many times.
So I turn to Skelton’s other runner at the top of the handicap, Royal Infantry, who ran second over this course and distance last month. His other runs this season have been consistent, and he deserves a victory.
The 3.18 is the Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Chase. This Class 2 chase is run over 2m 4 1/2f. The top weight here is Dan Skelton’s Etalon, who won at Ascot just before Christmas. Since then, he has run third at Ascot and 4th here at Kempton. He has a lot of weight to carry.
Paul Nicholls’s Blueking d’Oroux won a Grade 2 at Wincanton in November, then ran 5th in the King George here on Boxing Day. He looks the one to beat.
Nicky Henderson’s Califet En Fol won here at Kempton last month, beating Etalon and Shakeyatailfeather. I expect him to confirm that form, and he should be the main threat to Henderson’s horse.
However, on a good handicap mark, I like the look of Harry Derham’s Teddy Blue. He is a past Kempton winner and was last seen running in a Grade 3 at Newbury, where he finished a fine third. He can upset the favourites.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.35 Uttoxeter. John Barbour
3.00 Uttoxeter. Aworkinprogress
2.40 Kempton. Royal Infantry
3.18 Kempton. Teddy Blue
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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