Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Two top-class meetings this week at Haydock and Ascot, which will give us a chance to run our eye over a few Cheltenham hopefuls.
There are no fewer than five races being televised from Ascot, including the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices Chase and the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. There is also a Novice Hurdle and a couple of handicaps.
Haydock’s three televised contests feature a Grade 2 hurdle and two handicaps, one of which is entitled a Grand National Trial, which is probably anything but.
Added to these eight races on ITV Racing, they are also showing a Grade 2 two-mile hurdle from Wincanton, but it is a pity about the low number of entries for this race, considering the prize money.
I have looked through the nine races for value, and here are my thoughts on this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.25 Ascot. Jour d’Evasion
3.00 Ascot. Threeunderthrufive
2.40 Haydock. Nemean Lion
3.15 Haydock. Where It All Began
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Ascot’s 2.25 is the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle, a Class 2 contest run over 2m 3 1/2f, and the top weight is Harry Fry’s Altobelli, who won here last month after being a runner-up at Doncaster the previous month. But he has risen in the weights and that may prove his undoing.
Another of the fancied runners is Dan Skelton’s Joyeuse Machin, who was last of five in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last month. He caught the eye when running third at Doncaster earlier this month and should go well.
Emma Lavelle’s Classic King has won twice at Doncaster this term, but he is another one who has risen in weight due to those victories.
Evan Williams’s Patriotik unseated at Haydock in November but bounced back with a fine second at Aintree on Boxing Day. He can hit the frame once more.
Joe Tizzard’s stable is going well, and he runs Rightsotom, who won at Doncaster in November. However, he disappointed the following month at Newbury when beaten 20 lengths into 5th.
I like one of the bottom weights, Henry Daly’s Jour d’Evasion, even though he didn’t get far on his first outing of the season when he was unseated at the first hurdle here at Ascot. Since then, he ran two creditable seconds before winning comfortably at Hereford in January, beating last week’s winner Santos Blue. He can follow up here.
The 3.00 is the Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase. This is a Grade 3 Premier Handicap run over 3 miles. We are getting used to seeing Venetia Williams on ITV Racing on a Saturday, leading in her latest winner, and she has every chance of doing it again this week with Victtorino.
He has won three times here at Ascot, including the last time out in December, but I will consider his rise in the weights and look for one to beat him.
Paul Nicholls runs top-weight Threeunderthrufive, who won this race last year. He was third behind Victtorino in December by 9 1/2 lengths giving him 12 lbs so is 5 lbs better off here giving him a chance.
Lucy Wadham’s Terresita won a Class 2 here at Ascot last month and is fully entitled to make this step up in class.
Nicky Henderson’s Wiseguy is having only his second run of the season after winning at Newbury last November. He has been waiting for better going.
Dan Skelton’s Snipe can go well off a low weight after a fine third in a Grade 3 at Doncaster last month.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Hasthing can complete a hat-trick of wins if he can step up in class here. However, his jumping is inconsistent, so I take Threeunderthrufive to regain his crown.
Moving north to Haydock Park, the 2.40 is the WKD Rendlesham Hurdle. This is a Grade 2 race run over 3m 1/2f. Nigel Twiston-Davies has the favourite here with Beauport, who won a Grade 3 at Uttoxeter last March. This season, he romped away with a Class 2 handicap at Ascot in November, winning by 31 lengths! Next time out, he ran in a Grade 1 in December again at Ascot and finished a close third. A good run is expected.
Gary and Josh Moore’s Botox Has was over 25 lengths behind Beauport at Ascot last time and seems to struggle in this company now after winning this race last year.
Ruth Jefferson’s Sounds Russian is having his first run since winning at Perth last April. This is much tougher.
Kerry Lee’s Nemean Lion is moving up to Graded company after carrying some big weights to victory in Class 2 handicaps. This could be the opportunity he has been waiting for.
The biggest betting race of the day is Haydock’s 3.15 the Oddschecker Grand National Trial Handicap Case. This is a Grade 3 run over 3m 4 1/2f. Despite its grand title, no horse has won this race and the National in the same season, and looking at the runners, I can’t see it happening this year either.
The top weight is Venetia Williams’s Royale Pagaille, who won the Betfair Chase in November but was pulled up here the following month. He is a five-time winner at the track, but it’s not feasible he can continue to carry these massive weights around over three and a half miles.
Williams also runs Fontaine Collonges who won here in November. It should be noted which one Charlie Deutsch chooses to ride.
Last year’s winner of this race, Yeah Man, returns to recapture his crown – he has earned place money on both his outings in Ireland for trainer Gavin Cromwell and is sure to put up a bold show once again with 4lbs less than last year.
Sam Thomas’s Jubilee Express won here at Haydock last March and was a fine second in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December. A bold run is expected.
Mel Rowley’s Val Dancer won the Welsh National, adding to a victory at Carlisle in November. He looks the form horse in this race, but I feel better going may not suit him.
Irish raiders have done well over here this season, and I cannot take my eye off Gordon Elliott’s Where It All Began. He won a Listed race at Punchestown last February, then ran 4th at the Cheltenham Festival when hampered by a faller. He completed his season by finishing in front of Yeah Man in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse.
In the Welsh National at Chepstow in December, he was only 4 lengths behind the leader and going well when he sprawled on landing four out and was immediately pulled up. I will forgive his latest run on heavy going at Gowran Park and take a chance with him here. A small e/w wager on Lucinda Russell’s Apples Away may pay dividends after his place runs in Listed races.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.25 Ascot. Jour d’Evasion
3.00 Ascot. Threeunderthrufive
2.40 Haydock. Nemean Lion
3.15 Haydock. Where It All Began
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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