Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
A mix of codes again this week as the flat really gets going with a fine card at Newbury, but plenty of eyes will be turned north of the border to Ayr as they stage the Scottish Grand National.
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ITV Racing are covering five races from Ayr, all of which are handicaps, three of which are Class 1s, and backed up by two Class 2s, with the National being the highlight. But the flat is now moving to the fore with the top-class card at Newbury, which features four televised races, three of which are Group 3s and the other is a Class 2 handicap.
So with high-end racing wherever you look on Saturday, here are my thoughts for the best value and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.45 Ayr. Diamond Dealer
2.20 Ayr. Tutti Quanti
3.35 Ayr. Promontory
3.10 Newbury. Fifth Column
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning at Ayr with the 1.45, the CPMS Novices Champion Handicap Chase is a Class 2 contest run over 3 miles. Top weight here is Nicky Henderson’s Califet En Vol, who won at Kempton in February but then ran very disappointingly in a strangely run race at the same track the following month. A better run is expected, but he has plenty of weight.
Greenall & Guerriero’s Gamester’s Boy has only been out of the frame once in five starts this season. His latest runs have been two seconds at Haydock and Chepstow, but he needs to up his game to feature here.
Nicky Richards’s Milcree won here at Ayr in January and is upped in trip and class here. He won at Kelso next time out, and a bold run is expected.
SRB Crawford’s Al Kalila won at Kelso in February, but this Irish-trained gelding looks too high in the weights.
Sam Thomas’s Just Over Land is not without a chance after running 4th on New Year’s Day in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham. Since then, he has run 3rd at Sandown last month after losing a shoe. He can go close.
But I just prefer Dan Skelton’s Diamond Dealer, who has won three times this season, latterly at Kelso at the beginning of last month. He should be able to cope with the extra distance here.
The 2.20 is the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle, which is a Grade 2 Limited Handicap run over 2 miles. Dan Skelton has the favourite here with Tellherthename, who, along with several of his opponents, ran in a Grade 3 at the Cheltenham Festival. He trailed in a disappointing 12th, having never got into the action.
Hobbs & White run Captain Hugo, who is a four-time winner this season. His latest victory was at Kelso in February, but he steps up in class here.
Sandy Thomson’s Dedicated Hero was a Grade 2 winner at Haydock last season and finally got his head in front this term at Kelso earlier this month. At the seventh time of asking, this is much tougher than that lowly Kelso race.
Paul Nicholls has the top weight here with Tutti Quanti. He never got into the Champion Hurdle at the Festival after he dwelt at the start, so he comes here seeking this title instead. He had previously won two Grade 3s at Newbury in November and February, and provided he behaves himself at the start, he should have this race at his mercy.
The day’s big betting race is the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at 3.35. This is a Class 1 Premier Handicap run over 4 miles. There are several Irish-trained runners in this race, and one of them is the current favourite, that is Joseph O’Brien’s Kim Roque, who ran a fine 4th in a handicap at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. He seems to run consistently well but has only won once this season.
Willie Mullins runs Road To Home, who ran second in that same Cheltenham handicap, beaten only a neck, but he has never tackled this sort of distance.
Cath Williams has taken over her husband’s, Evan, training licence and sends the winner of that Cheltenham race here, Ask Brewster. He raced lightly this season and has won two of his three outings, sure to run well.
Lucinda Russell’s and Michael Scudamore’s King Of Answers ran a very good second in a 3m 6f novice’s handicap at Cheltenham last month, so the distance should pose no problem. He has won twice at Kelso this season and would prove a popular local winner.
Tom Lacey’s Montregard has won three times this season, including a 3-mile Grade 3 at Ascot last time out in February. He can go very close.
But my eye is taken by another Irish entry at a big price. Sarah Connell’s Promontory is down near the bottom of the weights and ran well to finish second at Navan in February, then went to Leopardstown in early March and romped away in a decent handicap. A repeat of that form can see him be successful here.
Moving south to Newbury and changing codes, the 3.10 is the Win Unique Experiences At OLGB Prizes Spring Cup Handicap. This is a Class 2 race run over the straight one-mile course. Last year’s winner, EBT’s Guard trained by Muir & Grassick, returns to defend the crown he won last year, but he has 6lbs more to carry this time.
The Lincoln at Doncaster was won by Jack Channon’s Urban Lion, but he has gone up 5lbs after that victory.
The second horse in the Lincoln was only beaten by a nose. James Owen’s Rogue Diplomat rattled off a four-timer at the end of last season and is a pound better off with Urban Lion. He can hit the frame once more and possibly even go one better.
Richard Hannon’s Linwood won at Newmarket on his final outing of last season. He is a past Newbury winner, and a bold run is expected.
James Fanshawe’s Back In Black won here at Newbury this time last year, but he never really fulfilled that early-season promise.
John & Thady Gosden’s horses’ entries are always appreciated, and they have Fifth Column in this for his first run of the season. His final two runs last term can be dismissed as he seemed over-the-top, but prior to that, he won four of his six starts, including his first two runs of the season. He looks like a spring horse, and he can take this for Godolphin.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.45 Ayr. Diamond Dealer
2.20 Ayr. Tutti Quanti
3.35 Ayr. Promontory
3.10 Newbury. Fifth Column
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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