Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Three meetings are being covered this week, where Kempton is the principal one, with five races being covered from the Surrey track, with three Grade 2s, a Grade 3 Premier Handicap, and a Class 3 handicap to begin the card.
ITV Racing are showing one race from Newcastle- the Class 2 Eider Chase, a very good Grand National trial. There are also some big field handicaps on the card I would have liked them to cover, perhaps it’s too far north of Watford!
The third meeting being televised is the all-weather card at Lingfield, from where ITV are showing a Listed sprint and the Group 3 Winter Derby. So, eight races in all, and here are my thoughts on the jumps action and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.10 Kempton. Tranquil Sea
3.00 Kempton. Mustang Du Breuil
3.35 Kempton. The Doyen Chief
2.43 Newcastle. Fortunate Man
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning at Kempton Park with the 1.10, the Ladbrokes ‘New Horse Racing Bet Builder’ Handicap Hurdle, a Class 3 contest run over 2m 5f. Top weight here is Alan King’s Favour And Fortune, who was last seen last April when he ran third at Aintree in a Grade 3 race. For him to carry a stone more than anything else in the race is a big ask.
Dan Skelton’s Royal Infantry has been unsuccessful so far this season, but he has dropped down in class here to try and get his first victory this term. His weight may be a problem.
Ben Pauling’s Whatsupwithyou won at Ascot in December, the stable is in form, and this horse seems to go well on right-handed tracks.
Joe Tizzard’s Bourbali has won twice here at Kempton, and he has been knocking on the door all season but may have to settle for a place once again.
Paul Nicholls’s Fasol has won two Class 3s this season, but this looks tougher.
Hold The Serve’s two victories have come in Class 4 races for trainer Olly Murphy, and this step up is a big ask.
Skelton has another chance with Tranquil Sea, who is a better horse than his form would suggest, and in an open contest, I give him a chance off his low weight.
At 3.00, it is the Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices Hurdle, a Grade 2 contest run over 2 miles. These novices are stepping up to the Graded company for the first time here, making it a tricky puzzle to fathom, but there are a couple who look like they can move on in their careers.
Harry Derham’s Klub de Reve won his maiden here on Boxing Day by 10 lengths and carries a 3lb penalty for that victory.
Alistair Ralph’s Onlyforfrankie has won three times this season, including a Class 2 at Musselburgh earlier this month. He is another with a 3lb penalty for that win.
Nicky Henderson’s Mustang Du Breuil could be anything after winning in France and earlier this month at Doncaster. He gets a 7lb allowance for his age.
Dan Skelton’s Double Measure won a Class 4 Maiden Hurdle at Huntingdon last month by 11 lengths. He deserves to be upped in class.
Emma Lavelle’s Loaded And Locked has won twice this season, at Worcester in October and latterly at Hereford in a Class 4 in January, but this is much tougher. I take a chance with Henderson’s Mustang Du Breuil.
The big betting race of the day is at 3.35, the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase, which is a Grade 3 Premier Handicap run over 3 miles. Last year’s winner, Katate Dori, trained by Sam Thomas, returns to defend his crown. His form this season has been only fair. However, his second at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day shows all is not lost. His run in that Class 2, where he was only caught in the last 100 yards, shows he will not go down without a fight.
Dan Skelton has two in this. The top weight Boombawn, who has too much weight, and Hoe Joly Smoke, who has been placed at Cheltenham twice this season, and looks the better option. He is expected to go close off his low weight.
Christian Williams’s Deep Cave has won two from three this season, including a Grade 3 at Ascot in December. He can be placed.
Neil King’s Lookaway was the winner of a Class 3 here at Kempton last month. However, this is half a mile further and a lot tougher.
Emmet Mullins sends two over from Ireland. Rising Dust has won three races at Thurles this season, but despite bottom weight, that form is not good enough here.
Chance Another One won at Kempton in November in a Class 3, but showed little at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. It would be something of a surprise if either of them figures in this company.
I like Alan King’s The Doyen Chief, who has won twice here at Kempton, including last time out in January in a Class 2. He can put up a bold show once again here.
For my final selection, I move north to Newcastle for the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Eider Handicap Chase, which is off at 2.43. This is a Class 2 handicap run over 4m 1 1/2f. Two past winners of this race turn up here to try and win it again. Knockanore trained by Ryan Potter won this last year at a big price, but he has disappointed this season, having been pulled up on two occasions.
The 2024 winner, Anglers Crag, trained by Nicky Richards, had a poor season last term but came out at Carlisle in November and won a Class 3 contest, showing he still retains his love for the game at 11 years old.
Top weight and the class act here is Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango, who rattled up a hat-trick last season. This time around, he was second at Aintree in December but then was pulled up at Sandown last month. His weight is a problem, but he is in class.
The Hobbs and White partnership sent Livin On Luco, who won at Fontwell in November, then ran a fine 4th in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December. He can’t be discounted.
But I prefer Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s Fortunate Man, who won at Aintree on Boxing Day, then ran third at Sandown at the end of January. This could be a stepping stone on his way to the Grand National.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.10 Kempton. Tranquil Sea
3.00 Kempton. Mustang Du Breuil
3.35 Kempton. The Doyen Chief
2.43 Newcastle. Fortunate Man
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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