Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
They do say, “After the Lord Mayor’s Show, there is ……” well, that is certainly the case this week after Royal Ascot. Regular readers will know I am not particularly enamoured about all-weather racing, but it’s Newcastle’s big Saturday of the year with the Northumberland Plate (aka The Pitman’s Derby). So it is that meeting I will be concentrating on this week.
There are five races being televised from Gosforth Park, four of which are handicaps with a Group 3 slotted in between them.
The second televised meeting is from Newmarket with HQ featuring three Class 1s. Two Listed races and a Group 3. It is something of a pity about the small fields.
So there are eight races in all being shown, and I have looked through them for the best value for this week’s Lucky Fifteen, and here are my thoughts.
Newcastle Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.35 King’s Lynn
2.35 Haveyoumissedme
3.10 Forza Orta
3.40 United Approach
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Newcastle’s biggest flat meeting of the year kicks off with the 1.35 the JenningsBet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap, a Class 2 contest run over 6 furlongs on the all-weather track.
William Haggas’s Wiltshire won on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury in April. He returned to the same course the following month and was a very disappointing favourite, finishing next to last in an 11-runner contest. He is not to be trusted.
Roger Varian’s Rizg has not been seen on a racecourse since running down the field in Group 1 at Royal Ascot two years ago, avoid.
Almarada Prince has been upped in class by trainer Craig Lidster since winning three lowly contests last season. His latest run, when he finished second at York a fortnight ago, was his best run so far. He may go close off his low weight.
Another with a featherweight is Richard Spencer’s Cross The Tracks, who won over the course and distance in May, but this is much tougher.
Andrew Balding’s King’s Lynn was winning Class 1 races at ages 4 and 5 but has been unsuccessful since despite running in handicap company. He ran a good third here last month and ran fourth in a hot handicap at Hamilton last month. I take him to get back to winning ways.
The 2.35 is the JenningsBet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap, a Class 2 race run over 2m 1/2f. This is a consolation race for the Northumberland Plate.
Mrs C O’Leary sends two horses over from Ireland who run in this, Alphonse Le Grande and Belgoprince and she was probably hoping the former would run in the Plate. He looks like the stand-out horse after victories at Dundalk and Chester, and he will probably go off as a favourite.
Jim Goldie’s Faylaq ran a good third at Hamilton earlier this month after being slowly away. He can be placed.
Brian Ellison’s Chillhi has won twice here at Newcastle but never over further than one mile. His latest run was at York over 1m 4f finishing 8th.
Tim Easterby’s Zimmerman is having his first run on the all-weather for almost 3 years. His latest run was a fortnight ago at Chester, where he ran fifth in a Class 4 contest.
I will go for Iain Jardine’s Haveyoumissedme to beat the Irish hotpot. He is a previous course and distance winner and ran a good second in his March penultimate race. He dwelt at the start at Musselburgh the following month, so forfeiting his chance. He is better than that.
The JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap is at 3.10. This Class 2 is also run over 2m 1/2f and is the big betting race of the day.
Top weight is Brian Ellison’s Tashkhan, who won at Chester last September. He then ran a fine third in a Group 1 at Longchamp in October. He is making his seasonal reappearance and has not run on all-weather since 2020.
Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee won the Chester Cup in May, beating several he meets here. But he has risen in the handicap since that win.
Sir Mark Prescott has two runners here. True Legend has run two fine seconds already this season, while Trooper Bisdee has achieved two victories this year at Nottingham and Pontefract but is moving up in class in this race.
There is an Irish raider, Mrs John Harrington’s Yashin, who has run two fine-thirds in the Listed and Group company in Ireland. He can only be held back by his weight.
Michael Bell’s Duke Of Oxford was a fine second over this course and distance in March and then ran down the field in the Chester Cup in May. He should go well here and be placed.
My preference is another horse who ran in the Chester Cup, Kevin Ryan’s Forza Orta. He ran a close-up 8th that day, beaten only just over 4 lengths, and is now 6 lbs better off with the winner. He can prevail.
At 3.40, we have the Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap. This is a Class 2 contest run over 7 furlongs.
Top weight here is Ralph Beckett’s Grey’s Monument, who won a Listed race on the all-weather at Kempton last December. He then ran third in another Listed race on turf at Doncaster. His latest run was back at a handicap company in York, where he weakened over a mile. He is a major contender.
George Boughey has a couple in this Raadobarg and Barodar, and it is the latter who interests me. He won twice last year at Ascot and Doncaster, but in his latest run at Royal Ascot this month, he was beaten 20 lengths after being swamped in the final two furlongs. He will be better here.
Kevin Frost’s 11-year-old Documenting won on the all-weather at Chelmsford in April, then ran a good third at Chester in May. He could run into a place.
Roger Fell and Sean Murray’s Eldrickjones is a Newcastle specialist having won here three times. His latest victory was in May, where he beat Richard Fahey’s Zip into second, but Zip is 7lbs better off here and is expected to reverse the form.
But the one I think can trump the pair of them is James Tate’s United Approach. This lightly raced colt won at Doncaster 14 months ago. He didn’t race for the rest of the season, and on his only run this time around, he was a good fourth in a hot contest at Newbury last month. He is upped in distance to 7 furlongs, and that should suit him.
Newcastle Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.35 King’s Lynn
2.35 Haveyoumissedme
3.10 Forza Orta
3.40 United Approach
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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