Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
The action this Saturday comes from Sandown and Newmarket, where ITV Racing are covering seven races.
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Sandown is the main meeting, with the Group 1 Coral Eclipse topping the bill. It is not my favourite Group 1 of the season, as although the 3-year-olds meet the older horses, they are given a huge advantage with the younger horses receiving 10lbs. Older horses have won only 3 of the last 10 runnings, and this year the UK trainers’ young horses have been scared off by the 3-year-old O’Brien entries.
Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last five runnings of this contest and will probably win this. This race is backed up by two further Class 1s and a Class 2 handicap.
Meanwhile, at Newmarket, they are running some of the races from the recently abandoned Haydock meeting, and the card includes a Group 2 and two Class 2 handicaps. I have looked through the races for value, and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Sandown. Words Of Truth
2.25 Sandown. Cerulean Bay
2.05 Newmarket. Lopeo
3.15 Newmarket. Elsass
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning with a Group 3 at Sandown, the Coral Charge is a 5-furlong sprint on the Esher track at 1.50. There is a very warm favourite here with Australian trainer Henry Dwyer’s entry, Asfoora, who won a Group 1 at York last August and then repeated the feat at Longchamp in October. But she has disappointed this season, failing to trouble the judge in three attempts.
Jonathan Portman’s Rumstar won two Group 3s last season, but his form tailed off somewhat later in the year. On his seasonal reappearance, he only beat one home in a 26-runner race at Royal Ascot.
Clive Cox’s Shagraan won Listed races at the end of last season but has looked woeful on his last two appearances.
Karl Burke’s Leovanni won a Group 2 two years ago. He was lightly raced after, so he must have had his problems, but he has raced twice this year and may be getting back in the groove and could be placed.
But I like Charlie Appleby’s Words Of Truth, who ran second at Meydan in January, then won here at Sandown last month going away in a Listed contest. He has a 3-year-old weight allowance and can repeat last month’s victory.
At 2.25 it is the Coral Challenge Handicap, a Class 2 race run over one mile. The current favourite is Roger Varian’s Indalo, who ran a fine third at Ascot last month in a 28-runner handicap, beating many of the horses he meets once again here. A repeat of that run should see him go very close.
The Muir & Grassick runner Ebt’s Guard was fourth in that Ascot race, and another bold run can be expected.
Ralph Beckett’s Beagle Bay was a winner here at Sandown last month, following up another victory at Yarmouth in May, but this is much tougher.
David Menuisier’s Tribal Chief has run third in his last two races at Doncaster in March and Ascot in May. He could hit the frame once again.
James Tate’s City Of Poets won a Class 3 at Redcar last month and comes here off a low weight. He could spring a surprise and be placed at a big price.
But I return to that big Royal Ascot race for my idea of the winner, and that is David O’Meara’s Cerulean Bay, who ran 5th just one length behind Indalo and is now a pound better off. He was a bit all over the place at Ascot after switching to the far side, then switching left. If he can keep a straight course with fewer runners, he can take this.
Moving to Newmarket, the 2.05 is the Betway Bet £10 Get £40 Handicap for 3-year-olds, which is a Class 2 race run over 1m 6f. Dylan Cunha’s Arc Ole Ole won two small races earlier in the season, but when running in a Class 2 at Ascot last month, he could finish only 5th with Charlie Johnson’s Amora Queen 17 lengths behind him.
Andrew Balding’s Mythical Bay won a Class 4 at Newbury last month. He won on the all-weather at Wolverhampton in January in a Class 3 and can hit the frame here.
Andrew Balding’s Hard To Believe also won a small race earlier in the year, at Wolverhampton in March and was successful here in a Class 4 last month, but more is required.
Alan King’s Heroics won a lowly Class 5 at Sandown last month, but even off bottom weight, he needs to show a big improvement.
I prefer David Menuisier’s Lopeo, who won a Class 2 maiden last year. This term, he has been runner-up on both his outings, first at Doncaster in a Class 4 in April, then at the same track in a Class 2 last month. That form can make him successful here.
Finally, the 3.15 is the Betway Old Newton Cup Handicap, this famous old Haydock race is a Class 2 contest run over 1m 4f. There is a hot favourite here in the form of William Haggas’s Klassleader, who won a Class 2 at York in May. He is the one to beat.
Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Claymore won a Class 3 at Windsor last week. This is tougher.
Andrew Balding’s Plage De Havre ran disappointingly at Kempton in a Listed race in April then ran third 5 lengths behind Klassleader at York he is 9lbs better off here.
Iain Jardine’s Paddy The Squire was 6th in the Klassleader race but turned up at Royal Ascot and ran a fine third, beaten 2 lengths behind the winner. He can go close.
But I fancy something at the bottom of the handicap, Charlie Johnson’s Elsass, who won on the all-weather at Southwell in April, then romped home at Hamilton the following month, winning a Class 3 by 5 lengths. He can overturn the hot favourite.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Sandown. Words Of Truth
2.25 Sandown. Cerulean Bay
2.05 Newmarket. Lopeo
3.15 Newmarket. Elsass
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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