Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
First run in 1780, The Derby is the richest and most important race in the UK’s flat season. This year’s race looks like one of the most competitive this century, with 19 runners, and I have detailed the fancied horses below.
ITV Racing have scheduled their programme exclusively to the Epsom meeting and are covering five races from the Surrey track that include three Class 1s and a couple of 5-furlong handicaps. So here are my thoughts on the day’s racing and the best value for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Epsom Lucky Fifteen
1.00 Skellet
2.10 Mademoiselle
2.45 Jer Batt
3.30 Midak
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Staring with the 1.00 The Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 1m 1/2f for 3-year-old fillies and mares. This is a very open race with most of the top trainers represented, including John and Thady Gosden, who run Spiritual, who ran a close third on her seasonal reappearance at Lingfield last month, which was also a Group 3 race. So a bold run is expected.
Karl Burke’s Bright Thunder won twice last season and was only beaten a neck at Goodwood last month. James Tate’s Royal Dress was a well-beaten third at York’s Dante meeting and needs to improve massively to feature.
My preference is for Ralph Beckett’s Skellet, who concluded last season by winning a Listed race at Sandown. She can make that step up on her first run of the season.
The 2.10 is the Betfred 3yo “Dash” Handicap, a 5-furlong Class 2 race for 3-year-olds. It is something of a pinstickers’ race, with very little form to go on. The betting should be noted. Top weight is Kevin Ryan’s Against The Wind, who won a Class 3 at Thirsk in April, then disappointed at York the following month when going off favourite. His weight is a problem.
The Newland & Insole’s Ruby’s Profit also has plenty of weight but has shown fine form, winning at Wolverhampton and Goodwood already this season. She can go close.
Richard Fahey’s Stormy Impact ran consistently well last term, but was disappointing on her seasonal reappearance last month at Newmarket. A better run is expected.
Antony Britain’s Blinky has won twice on the all-weather this term and was not disgraced when finishing third at Chester’s May meeting.
I like the look of George Scott’s Mademoiselle, who won twice last August. She was second behind Ruby’s Profit at Goodwood last month, beaten just half a length. She is 4 lbs better off here.
The Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap is at 2.45. This Class 2 handicap is also run over the sharp 5 furlongs, and a low draw has proved to be helpful in this race. John and Sean Quinn’s Jm Jungle, drawn 7, has been ultra-consistent this season without getting his head in front. He is a favourite here, but finds one or two too good too often for me.
Top weight is Robert Cowell’s Clarendon House, who won a Listed race at Southwell in February and was a fine third in a Group 3 at Newmarket in May. He is a class entry but has a lot of weight, and his draw in Stall 15 is poor.
Cowell also runs Democracy Dilemma, who won a Listed race at Beverley last term but has shown little this season and is high enough in the handicap, drawn 6.
Richard Fahey’s Vintage Clarets turns up in all these sprints and won twice last season. He is well drawn in Stall 2 and can run into a place.
Last year’s winner Dream Compser returns to defend his crown for trainer James Evans, but he has 16lbs more to carry and his jockey has lost his 5lbs claim, so despite his good draw, Stall 7, I cannot see him pulling it off again.
I prefer David and Nicola Barron’s Jer Batt, who is in Stall 9. He ran consistently well last season and won a Class 2 at Haydock. This season, he was just a neck behind Jm Jungle at Musselburgh and is now 3lbs better off. Forget his latest run at Chester, as he was drawn wide and was never going to get into it at the RooDee.
The Betfred Derby is the final televised race from ITV and it is due off at 3.30. It is, of course, a Group 1 and is run over the famous course of 1m 4f. There have been numerous trials up and down the country both last season and this, and probably none more important than the Dante at York last month, which Ralph Beckett’s Pride Of Arras won on his first outing of the season at a big price. He beat several opponents whom he meets once again here, and is sure to run well.
Beckett has another runner with a chance, Stanhope Gardens, who easily won a small race at Salisbury last month – he could be anything.
The trainer with the greatest record in the race this century is Aidan O’Brien, who has won it no fewer than 10 times, and this time around has three runners – Delacroix is the current favourite, having won two Group 3s at Leopardstown this season. But he was beaten three times as a 2-year-old. Lambourn has been second to Delacroix. However, he did win the Chester Vase in early May.
Then the horse I think is O’Brien’s best chance The Lion In Winter who flopped in the Dante after sweating up in the paddock – he beat the 2000Gns winner as a 2-year-old. The winner of the 2000 Gns was Charles Appleby’s Ruling Court, who managed to get first run out of the dip at Newmarket. It’s not certain if he gets a mile and a half.
John and Thady Gosden have two runners, Nightwalker and Damysus, and it is the latter that interests me most after running second in the Dante, where he took a keen hold. He has an excellent chance.
But my idea of the winner is F-H Graffard’s Midak. He runs in the deceased’s Aga Khan’s colours, and the race is being run in his honour this year. He is unbeaten in his three runs in France this season, including a Group 3 at Saint Cloud in May. He looks like the real deal.
As a big outsider, Gosden’s other runner Nightwalker looks a good each-way bet.
Epsom Lucky Fifteen
1.00 Skellet
2.10 Mademoiselle
2.45 Jer Batt
3.30 Midak
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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