Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It’s the big meeting at Aintree this week and Saturday sees the biggest race of the year with the Grand National off at 5.15.
ITV are concentrating all their energies on the meeting from Liverpool with five races being shown from the course and besides the Grand National itself, there are three Grade 1’s on the card so even if the big race does not exude class this year there is plenty of class on the rest of the card for purists.
So here are my thoughts for the National and the rest of the meeting to make up this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
2.25 Colonel Mustard
3.35 Champ
4.15 Cap Du Nord
5.15 Delta Work (Fortescue E/W)
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
The first race to be broadcasted is the Betway Mersey Novices Hurdle at 2.25 and this features one of Gordon Elliott’s top novices Three Stripe Life. Although he hasn’t won since last November he has run second in three Group 1’s since then the latest of which was at the Cheltenham Festival last month, this list of seconds may continue but he is the one to beat.
Nicky Henderson’s Walking On Air has had only one run this season which was a victory at Newbury in January where he romped home by 13 lengths in a lowly contest, it remains to be seen how good that form is.
North Lodge and Harbour Lake turn out for Alan King and the former looks the better of the two, King thinks he may run very well.
But I like the look of another Irish runner, Lorna Fowler’s Colonel Mustard, who may turn out to be a hot prospect. He has run consistently well throughout his career and only lost second in the final strides at Cheltenham last month, he is fancied to go well here.
One of the races of the meeting is at 3.35 the JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle where the main protagonists from Cheltenham’s Stayer’s Hurdle reoppose.
Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter was successful that day going clear over the last 100 yards, he is sure to go well. Thyme Hill was second that day but was no match for the winner however Philip Hobbs’s gelding won this race last year and is sure to put up a strong defence on this flat course.
Gordon Elliott’s Sire Du Berlais was tried in a handicap last time at Cheltenham and was hampered by a faller but he needs to bring his A-game here to feature.
I will give a chance to Nicky Henderson’s Champ who is another horse who prefers to run on a flat track, he ran fourth in the Cheltenham race won by Flooring Porter but prior to that beat Thyme Hill at Ascot in December. He is quirky but is also very classy and can show that here.
At 4.15 it is the Betway Handicap Chase and up near the top of the handicap is the current favourite Dan Skelton’s Shan Blue. He failed to get in a blow when tried in the Ryanair at Cheltenham last time and prior to that fell heavily when well clear in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, he reverts to handicap company hoping for a change of fortunes but his weight may be a factor.
Tom Lacey’s Tea Clipper won at Chepstow in October but has gone off the boil since then, he was tried in the Ultima at the Festival last time and ran a fair fourth but improvement would be required here. A place in front of Tea Clipper at Cheltenham was Colin Tizzard’s Oscar Elite but he has not won for 16 months.
Lacey has another runner with a chance, Adrimel who has won twice at Haydock this season but was well beaten in a handicap at Cheltenham last time, with plenty of give in the ground he may go close.
One who won’t want rain is Colin Tizzard’s Killer Kane who has won his last two including a Listed race last time, he is down at the bottom of the handicap and may well be placed. But I also like Christian Williams’s Cap Du Nord who won at Kempton in February in this grade, he can go in again.
And so we come to the big race itself the 2022 running of the Randox Grand National Handicap Chase run over 4miles 2+1/2furlongs and 30 fences.
Henry de Bromhead’s Minella Times returns to Aintree to try and repeat his fine victory in 2021 however his form since then has not been wonderful having failed to complete on both occasions plus he has a whopping 21lbs more to carry, this looks an impossible task.
Any Second Now just got his nose in front for trainer Ted Walsh at Fairyhouse in February, but that was a four-runner race and he looks high enough in the weights.
Colin Tizzard’s runs Fiddlerontheroof who is ultra-consistent having been in the first three in his last 10 races over the last two seasons, his second in the Ladbroke’s Trophy at Newbury was a fine performance but he invariably find one too good.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has Good Boy Bobby in the lineup, he has won twice at Wetherby this year and should put up a good performance for his trainer.
I fancy Sandy Thomson’s Dingo Dollar to get round in his own time and he could be an e/w shot at a very big price. Charlie Longsden’s Snow Leopardess has been backed off the boards but represents very little value at this short price, the mare has won on all three of her outings this year including here at Aintree in the Becher Chase but history is against her as a mare has not won in over a century.
So we come to the eight Gordon Elliot runners and I think one of these may come out victorious, Death Duty and Escaria Ten look good but his runner that stands head and shoulders above the rest is Delta Work. He has won five Grade 1’s and his win at Cheltenham in the Cross-Country shows he can win over this distance and he is my choice for this year’s National.
Well that’s what my head says but in my heart I will be rooting for Henry Daly’s Fortescue who has just scraped in the bottom of the handicap, he has run consistently well all season and finally got his head in front in a Listed race at Ascot in February beating the highly-rated Fiddlerontheroof, it’s with Fortescue my place money will go.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
2.25 Colonel Mustard
3.35 Champ
4.15 Cap Du Nord
5.15 Delta Work (Fortescue E/W)
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Related Reading