Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Although we have the Scottish Grand National at Ayr and the Bet365 Chase to come on subsequent Saturdays, this weekend is regarded as the final fixture of the jumps season with the Aintree meeting. ITV are devoting their whole Saturday programme to just the one fixture with five races being shown from the Liverpool course. So expect a lot of flaff, padding and advertisements between the races.
There are two perfectly good jump meetings at Chepstow and Newcastle they could have used to dovetail into the show but ITV won’t even give us the results from those meetings. As to the Aintree meeting itself, it is once again being highly targeted by the Irish trainers. It is after all just a short sailing across the Irish Sea from Dublin and Belfast into the Port Of Liverpool.
Especially targeted is the Grand National, Irish trainers have won it eight times since 2000 and considering they only won it nine times in the whole of the 20th century that shows how they have the race in their sights and this year is no exception. That is shown by the fact that they have seven of the top ten horses in the betting.
So, with these factors in mind, I have trawled through the card to try to find some value and here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
1.45 Come On Teddy
3.35 Roksana
4.15 Cloudy Glen
5.15 Canelo
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
The first race on Saturday’s Aintree card is the EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle at 1.45 run at just over 3 miles. The top weight is course and distance winner Unowhatimeanharry.
Harry Fry’s charge won first time out this season but he is a 13-year-old now and he has too much weight for my liking.
Nicky Henderson has a couple of live fancies with Janika and Champagne Platinum and the latter looks the better of the two after his latest run in the Pertemps Final.
J’ai Froid trained by LJ Morgan has won his last four but this is a massive step up in class for the gelding.
Stoney Mountain is a dual Aintree winner in 2018 and 2019 but has only run once this season for trainer Jamie Snowden and that was disappointing. He is best watched.
Paul Nicholls’s Southfield Harvest has been consistent this year without winning. He can go close here. But another consistent performer may pip him and that is Tom George’s Come On Teddy who was staying on in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham and finishing third, he can do better here.
At 3.35, we have the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle which is billed as a head-to-head between Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park and Phillip Hobbs’s Thyme Hill. However, Paisley Park was disappointing when beaten at Cheltenham and Thyme Hill skipped the Festival after losing to him at Ascot to stay fresh for this, but there is more to this race than these two.
Rebecca Curtis’s Lisnagar Oscar fell heavily at Cheltenham in the Long Distance Hurdle, a race he won the previous year, and he has looked a pale shadow of that horse since then.
Harry Fry’s If The Cap Fits started the season on a high but was found out in that same race and looks out of his depth.
I particularly like Dan Skelton’s Roksana who went down the Mare’s Hurdle route at Cheltenham and finished third. She is a proven 3 miler winning twice over that distance this term and as she is able to claim the 7 lbs mares allowance, that could prove to be the decisive factor here.
The Betway Handicap Chase is at 4.15, and this could prove to be the best betting race of the afternoon. Nicky Henderson’s Top Notch is the top weight and the bookmakers have him currently marked up as favourite but although he is stepping back to handicap company after running in Graded races, it is his first attempt at 3 miles and I think he can be opposed.
Spiritofthegames from Dan Skelton’s yard has been reasonably consistent this season but he hasn’t won since 2018 and may struggle in this company.
Kim Bailey’s Happygolucky has been even more consistent and won twice at the end of last year. He was sent off as a favourite for the Ultima at Cheltenham and after a hard race finished second, I can’t fancy him after that tough run. He was beaten that day by a Trevor Hemmings owned horse and another could be his nemesis here.
That horse is the Venetia Williams trained by Cloudy Glen who comes here after a fine second in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He drops back in trip slightly here and as he has no Irish trained horses to face this time, he can go one better.
After fully a one-hour break in proceedings, we come to the Randox Grand National Handicap at 5.15 run over 4miles 2 1/2furlongs and 30 fences with 40 declared runners. The talk of the race is Cloth Cap and how he is a blot on the handicap. He is officially a stone well in on the weights and those in the know are saying he would win even with that extra weight.
Jonjo O’Neill’s charge has run just three times this season winning his last two at Newbury and Kelso and because of those fine wins is currently 4/1 favourite. He must have every chance but because I like to look for value, I will oppose him as he has never faced the Aintree fences or 39 opponents, anything can happen.
The top weight is the magnificent animal that is Bristol De Mai trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. He has won 5 Grade1’s in his career but will want some cut in the ground. His weight may tell.
Brian Ellison’s Definitely Red knows how to jump these fences. He was 4th in the Becher Chase in 2019 but was well beaten by Cloth Cap last time out.
The most fancied Irish runner is Willie Mullins’s Burrows Saint who won the Irish National in 2019 and has been laid out for this. However, he was beaten last time by another Mullins runner Acapella Bourgeois at Fairyhouse in February and he may confirm that form.
Anibal Fly from AJ Martin’s stable was 5th in that race and is fancied in some quarters. Tom Lacey’s Kimberlite Candy has been a runner up twice in the Becher Chase over these fences and may well run into a place here.
Ted Walsh knows what it takes to win a National. He did it with Papillon, and he sends out Any Second Now who won at Navan last month but his trainer must be praying for the heavens to open.
Nicky Henderson has never won a National and I don’t think OK Corral is the one to break his duck after being pulled up in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time out.
I really like Alan King’s Canelo who won on Boxing Day at Wetherby and he has won on the Mildmay course here at Aintree.
Another top class Irish contender is Henry De Bromhead’s Minella Times who will be the mount of Rachael Blackmore, could she be the first female to win the race? The horse’s form is good and he ran a fine second at Leopardstown in February in preparation for this.
I must also mention Tom George’s Double Shuffle, a horse I have a great affinity with. He won in January at Kempton and this has been his target since. He can be placed at a nice price.
With this wealth of talent to pick from my head says we may well see another Irish winner putting paid to Cloth Cap’s chances, but I will go with my heart – pray for a bit of rain – and go with Canelo.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
1.45 Come On Teddy
3.35 Roksana
4.15 Cloudy Glen
5.15 Canelo
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365