Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It is with a heavy heart that I produce this write-up for this Saturday’s racing at Newbury and Warwick as both meetings look very unlikely to go ahead due to the ice and snow currently enveloping the country.
ITV are due to televise four races from Newbury on Betfair Hurdle Day backed up by three more from Warwick, including the Warwick Castle Chase. These two meetings provide pointers to the Cheltenham Festival, which now is only five weeks away and I’m sure many of our UK trainers have heavy hearts after seeing the performances of the Irish contingent at the Dublin Festival last weekend.
We saw some incredible racing at Leopardstown with the likes of Chacun Pour Soi, Appreciate It, Monkfish, Gaillard Du Mesnil and Kilcruit, all looking like champions-in-waiting but that is all to come. Meanwhile here are my thoughts for this week’s hoped for action.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Newbury. Southfield Harvest
2.25 Newbury. Kalashnikov
3.35 Newbury. Soaring Glory
3.15 Warwick. Oldgrangewood
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Newbury with the 1.50, the Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Weekly Handicap Hurdle where Jeremy Scott’s Sizable Sam is the current favourite. He is a dual winner over the last couple of months at Wincanton on both occasions. He has gone up 7lbs for those victories and that looks like it may anchor him.
Top weight here is Mint Condition trained by Jennie Candlish This horse has had a busy season running five times and winning three, but he will struggle to carry top weight in these conditions.
Paul Nicholls’s Southfield Harvest comes here looking to get off the mark for the season. His two seconds so far have been good performances and he was unlucky not to get the race last time in the steward’s room. He can gain recompense here.
I will also mention Henry Daly’s Flashjack who put in a good performance at Aintree in November. He will relish the conditions and may take a place at a nice price.
The Betfair Denman Chase is at 2.25 and Clan Des Obeaux, the 2019 winner, looks to repeat that victory for trainer Paul Nicholls. But his two runs this year has been far from convincing. The latest in the King George on Boxing Day was especially disappointing and after going off favourite, he made several mistakes and only took third on the run-in.
Colin Tizzard’s Lostintranslation does not appear to be the horse he was and the stable is only now coming out of a lean patch.
Everyone seems to love Nicky Henderson’s Champ and although he blotted his copybook by falling at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day last year, he has won eight of his other nine latest outings. This is his first run of the season and his target is the Festival next month. He will not be given a hard ride in this going.
I have a liking for one of the younger horses who comes here without a penalty and that is Amy Murphy’s Kalashnikov who won three novice chases in 2018/19. He has been highly tried since and his fine second behind the top-rated Mr Fisher at Cheltenham in December was an exemplary performance and he can finally take the Class 1 race he so richly deserves.
The Betfair Hurdle is at 3.35 and most of the runners have stood their ground at the 48-hour stage leaving a field of 24.
Harry Fry’s Metier is a deserved favourite after winning all three of his previous outings, including the Tolworth at Sandown last month but even though he will be suited by the going, he looks high in the weights for a novice.
Dan Skelton’s Cadzand is another novice with every chance. He won going away last time but the going is a concern.
Alan King sends two of his better hurdlers here but I think Edwardstone has too much weight, On To Victory his November Handicap winner makes more appeal. He just got home last time at Wincanton but I’m afraid he won’t be suited by the heavy going and may have to settle for a place.
The best of Paul Nicholls trio of runners appears to be Friend Or Foe who ran well to finish second on heavy going at Sandown last time out but that form may not be good enough here.
Jonjo O’Neill has a top class pair of runners in Sky Pirate and Soaring Glory and they are difficult to split but merely going on weights, I will go for the latter. He looks incredibly well handicapped compared to some of these after the season he has had up to now. He won first time out at Chepstow then later fell when long odds on at Wetherby. His latest run was a fair third at Ascot. He can improve on those outings to take this.
Moving to Warwick and the 3.15 is the Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase where Venetia Williams has the top weight with Aso who comes here in preparation for Cheltenham. He fell last time when trying the Grand National fences and comes here to regain his confidence but has too much weight.
Dan Skelton’s Spiritofthegames drops back from Graded company. However, he has not won since 2018 and he prefers good going.
Dr Richard Newland’s Le Patriote won at Hereford in December but was out of his class in January at Ascot in a Grade 1, the Clarence House Chase, next time out. He should be able to get in the mix here and may run into a place.
I have a preference for Dan Skelton’s Oldgrangewood. He is a class act having won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January last year. He has not run since a fourth place at Newbury last November where he was hampered when making his challenge three out. He is well handicapped for his return to action and can put in a good performance.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Newbury. Southfield Harvest
2.25 Newbury. Kalashnikov
3.35 Newbury. Soaring Glory
3.15 Warwick. Oldgrangewood
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365