Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
We have television coverage from opposite sides of the country this Saturday with racing from the south-east and north-west of England. Ascot has a great card with the Long Walk Hurdle backed up with three handicaps. The Long Walk features several of the protagonists we will see at the Cheltenham Festival in the Stayers Hurdle, making it an exciting contest.
I wonder if Paisley Park will come on from his run at Newbury when he was narrowly defeated by Thyme Hill, or will another challenger come from the pack such as Roksana? I also wonder if David Pipe’s Main Fact can continue his winning ways. He goes well in soft ground and may be worth an e/w bet.
All this excitement is backed up by two races from Haydock, including the Tommy Whittle Chase so it looks like we have a fine day racing to look forward to. Here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Ascot. Saint Sonnet
3.00 Ascot. The Conditional
3.35 Ascot. Malaya
2.05 Haydock. McGowan’s Pass
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Ascot with the 1.50, the Ascot Handicap Chase where Nicky Henderson has the top weight with Mengli Khan. He comes over from Ireland where he won twice during the summer and has previously won on heavy going. He will find it soft here but the weight is a worry on his first run for new connections.
The bookies choice is Saint de Vassy from Tom Symonds’ yard, Tom says of him “he tended to run with the choke out but we’ve done lots of work with him”. That showed at Exeter last time where he romped home by 11 lengths. The handicapper has noticed his improvement and upped him by 10lbs.
Gary Moore has bottom weight Early Du Lemo who had his first run for nearly two years at Sandown a fortnight ago where he ran a very creditable second. He may secure a place once again.
But I think Paul Nicholls’s Saint Sonnet has a great chance here. He has been highly tried in his races, including a creditable seventh in the Marsh Chase at the Festival. This season, he was close up when falling at the last in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham then he was pulled up after being hampered in last week’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, again at Cheltenham. If Nicholls considers him fit enough to turn out so quickly, he must fancy his chances in lower class company.
The Ascot Silver Cup Handicap Chase is at 3.00, and again Nicky Henderson has the top weight with Beware The Bear who is trying to gain his first victory since March 2019. But as a 10-year-old and having to carry 11st 10lbs it is a big ask, he has had an outing this season at Newbury last month where he ran a fair fifth.
In front of him in third was David Bridgewater’s The Conditional and there were several other of these opponents further behind, including Ardlethen, Regal Encore and Mister Malarky. I fully expect The Conditional to confirm those placings and take this contest.
The best of his opponents look to be Espirito de Guye and Quarenta and the former trained by Venetia Williams has an excellent record. He won first time out this season here at Ascot last month but steps up in distance in this contest. Jonjo O’Neill’s stable is really firing at present and Quarenta also won first time out here at Ascot in November. He gets three miles and further easily and goes well on soft but may have to settle for a place behind the selection.
The Betfair Exchange Trophy is at 3.35 and there is yet another Nicky Henderson horse carrying top weight. This one is his highly-rated Buzz. He was a dual winner last season then came out in October to run into a creditable place at Ffos Las before hammering a good field here at Ascot last month. But the handicapper has raised him 11lbs for that win and against this much classier field, he may struggle.
Harry Fry has Lightly Sqeeze in the lineup. He was a triple winner last year and almost won the Betfair Hurdle but for falling at the last. He was behind Buzz on his seasonal reappearance at Ffos Las but should improve against that rival here.
Dr Richard Newland’s Benson has run up a quick treble this season, including a Listed race at Sandown in November but he has risen 10lbs for that win.
I like the look of Paul Nicholls’s Malaya. He is a consistent performer and his run here at Ascot in October where he was second to Kid Commando was an excellent one. He is now 6lbs better off with that contender. He goes well on the soft and has all the right credentials to take this contest.
Moving north to Haydock Park, we have the Betfair Exchange Handicap at 2.05. Here, the current favourite is Colin Tizzard’s War Lord who won over this course and distance last month beating Our Power. And although I expect him to confirm those placings, he has 6lbs more to carry this time around.
Neil Mulholland has top weight with Chirico Vallis who had two victories in Class 3 contests before stepping up to this grade. But he was only able to run second and he may have to settle for a place again.
Albert’s Back from Michael Easterby’s yard didn’t take to chasing last season and has reverted to hurdles this time around. He won a poor contest at Wetherby last month and is upped in trip here but he is a Wetherby specialist with all his wins having come at the Yorkshire course.
McGowan’s Pass was consistent last season and ran a very close second first time out at Ayr last month. He will relish the heavy going and trainer Sandy Thomson will have him spot-on for this.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Ascot. Saint Sonnet
3.00 Ascot. The Conditional
3.35 Ascot. Malaya
2.05 Haydock. McGowan’s Pass
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365