Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
This weekend all eyes are across the Channel as Longchamps stages its biggest and most luxurious meeting of the year climaxing in the Prix de I’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. This looks to be one of the best fields for several years and there are many horses for whom a case can be made but the going looks like it may be heavy and there looks to be a stand-out contender on that sort of going.
That horse is Hurricane Lane, the one I tipped up for the English Derby Where he finished third. He has since then won the Irish Derby, the English Leger and more importantly the Grand Prix De Paris on heavy going at Longchamps. That sort of form cannot be overlooked and I think he can give trainer Charlie Appleby his first Arc.
Meanwhile, back to our own racing on Saturday’s terrestrial TV, we have coverage from three meetings. There is a two-year-old Listed race from Redcar, three races from Newmarket, which includes a fillies and mares Group 1 and four races from Ascot that include two Group races and a Listed race. So we only have two handicaps out of the eight races being televised making it difficult to find value amongst them all. However, I think I have found four horses that should pay well for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
1.45 Newmarket. Achelois
2.55 Newmarket. Mother Earth
3.15 Ascot. Diligent Harry
3.50 Ascot. Fresh
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Newmarket with the 1.45 the British EBF Premier Fillies Handicap Final where Owen Burrows saddles the top weight Talbeyah. She won at Salisbury in June and was fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth two weeks ago finishing 6 lengths behind the winner.
Ensemble has shown good form this season mainly on the all-weather for trainer Roger Varian but she steps up in class here.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Swoon has chalked up a couple of victories the latest of which was at Carlisle but she is taking a massive step up in class.
The Flying Ginger trained by Roger Fell was a winner at York in August, then was beaten just over 5 lengths in a hot Listed race at Ayr a fortnight ago. She drops down in class and is expected to put up a good performance.
But I would expect Andrew Balding’s Achelois to have too much for her, who was third behind her at York, as she is now 2lbs better off. She has been in great form this season, winning three times and should be able to gain revenge for that York defeat.
The big race on the Newmarket card is the 2.55 the Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes, a Group 1 contest. The favourite here is Richard Hannon’s Snow Lantern who won the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July but since then has been beaten in two Group 1’s when the ground was softer. With rain expected at Newmarket, she can be opposed.
Amanda Perrett’s Lavender’s Blue won at Goodwood in August but she is another who would prefer firmer conditions.
Ed Walker says of Primo Bacio that she has been unlucky in France and Newmarket and in her latest run at York she would have preferred a firmer surface. She is unlikely to get that here.
Jane Chappell-Hyam’s Saffron Beach was eighth in the Oaks in June and finally broke her duck for the season at Sandown in August and has won on soft, she can make the frame.
But I must go along with Aidan O’Brien’s 1000Gns winner Mother Earth who was also victorious on soft at Deauville in August on soft going. She can be forgiven her latest run at Leopardstown which was won by No Speak Alexander in a falsely run contest and where Mother Earth did not have a clear run. She should have no excuses in the wide-open Newmarket spaces.
At Ascot where there are several sprint races in the offing, I will start with the 3.15 the John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes run over 6 furlongs.
Archie Watson has the favourite here with Glen Sheil who won the Champions Sprint last October but has failed to reach the winners’ enclosure this year. That said, he has been highly tried and the latest of which was at Haydock in the Sprint Cup where he was well beaten.
Kevin Ryan’s Bielsa won the Ayr Gold Cup by racing alone on the far rail. He surely can’t get that lucky again. The stands rail group was ‘won’ that day by Ed Walker’s Great Ambassador but Walker is concerned this race may come too soon after Ayr.
Andrew Balding runs King’s Lynn for The Queen at her home course. He has failed to fire since winning at Haydock in May but may be better suited by some cut in the ground for a place.
Prontissimo is taking a huge leap up in class for trainer Patrick Owens but he did win here at Ascot over this distance in early September but a move to Group company looks a big ask.
I like the look of Clive Cox’s Diligent Harry who has not been out of the frame in six attempts this year winning three times. The latest of his runs was a second at Newbury where he was only beaten a neck with Tabdeed and King’s Lynn behind him. He deserves to cap a fine season with another victory and can take this.
At 3.50 it is the Equine Productions ‘The Fall’ Challenge Cup Handicap, a 7-furlong sprint. The top weight here is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Accidental Agent who won this race four years ago as a 3-year-old. He is a past Group 1 winner but is getting a bit long in the tooth now.
David O’Meara’s Escobar has been unlucky on his last two outings finishing a close up second on both occasions but he is high enough in the weights and may have to settle for a place once again.
Clive Cox has a couple in the lineup with River Nymph who has been running in Group company and the classy Aratus who is unbeaten in three starts this season. Both will put a bold show but they may both be trumped by a couple of opponents in what is a top-class field.
The Gosdens run Al Rufaa who had a year off before coming back at Goodwood in August. He has since run a close second at Sandown showing last year’s form is returning.
But I like a horse who has just crept into this race at the bottom of the handicap, James Fanshawe’s Fresh. He won here at Ascot in May then was beaten with a 5lbs penalty by just a neck the following month, Fanshawe then put him away till later in the year and he ran in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood but was unsuited by the track. He returns to the course he loves and will have the ground to suit. His low weight adds to his chances and he has the ability to take this.
1.45 Newmarket. Achelois
2.55 Newmarket. Mother Earth
3.15 Ascot. Diligent Harry
3.50 Ascot. Fresh
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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