Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
ITV are televising just the one meeting this Saturday, the Derby meeting from Epsom. So in a programme lasting three and a half hours, they are managing to squeeze in just five races so expect a lot of punditry and historical footage during the afternoon.
On the card are two fine handicaps, one of which is the 5f “Dash” and two Group 3’s over 1m 1/2f one for fillies and mares, and one for colts and geldings. These are followed by the Derby itself and I’m sure the whole of the racing industry is hoping we do not witness anything like the farce we have had last year when Aidan O’Brien’s Serpentine was allowed to forge into a huge lead leaving the rest of the field toiling in his wake. He returned at 25/1 and we have had some big priced winners over the last five years to include 25/1, 13/2, 16/1, 40/1 and 13/2. Could this trend of outsiders continue? My thoughts for this Saturday’s Lucky Fifteen at Epsom are as follows.
Epsom Lucky Fifteen
2.00 Freak Out
2.35 Illykato
3.45 Recon Mission
4.30 Hurricane Lane
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
The first race on the Epsom card is at 2.00, the World Pool At The tote Handicap where Mark Johnson has three runners, including the top weight King Zain, the current favourite King Frankel and one at the other end of the handicap, Case The Dollar.
King Zain has not exactly got off to a flying start in his 3-year-old career. He was a dual winner at two but has failed to make the frame in two attempts this season.
King Frankel has a big name to live up to. He won a lowly classed race at Pontefract in April then got beaten 4 lengths when upped in grade last month at Newbury.
Chase The Dollar was tried on the all-weather at Newcastle last time in a bid to get his season off the mark, but he was unsuccessful beaten just a head.
Ralph Beckett runs Patient Dream who was a course and distance winner last time in April but he steps up in class here.
I like the look of George Boughey’s Freak Out who has been runner up twice in his three runs this year. He is moving up in class but has shown he is able to rally over the final furlong. He may well get the better of Johnson’s trio.
The Princess Elizabeth Stakes is at 2.35 and this looks like a very open betting contest.
Richard Hannon’s Posted finally got her head in front at Sandown last September to score her only success of the season. This year, she made no impression on her only outing at Newmarket at the beginning of last month.
Martyn Meade’s Statement ran 8th in the 1000 Gns in May after a good trial at Newbury where she ran second. She drops back in class here but looks to have too much on her plate.
The Crisford’s run Maamora who won at Sandown last August and they were hopeful of her in her first run of this season at Goodwood at the beginning of May, she went off favourite that day but found no extra in the final furlong. The winner of that Goodwood Listed race was Mick Channon’s Illykato who kept on to get home by a nose. She was highly tried last year and was considered good enough to run in the Cheveley Park. After her Listed race win she moves back to Group company looking for her first win in this grade.
The 3.35 is probably my favourite race of the meeting, the World Pool “Dash” Handicap which is exactly what the name suggests. This 5 furlongs contest is a sight to behold as the combatants hurl themselves down the Epsom straight and one who certainly knows his way home is Michael Appleby’s Caspian Prince who has won this three times in 2014, 2016 and 2017 but he is getting a bit long in the tooth now as a 12-year-old.
The 2019 winner Ornate trained by David Griffiths returns to try and defend his crown, (no race last year) he has been busy this year racing on the all-weather and has been successful twice but he had a prep run on turf at Haydock last week in readiness for this and was beaten 10 lengths.
Top weight is Andrew Balding’s Stone Of Destiny who ran a good second last time at Goodwood and was beaten only a head but looks highly weighted. But the one I like the look of here is Tony Carroll’s Recon Mission who has been plying his trade on the all-weather this year without success but he came here in April for his yearly debut on turf and promptly landed the spoils. He has landed the No 2 stall which was successful in 2019, so he gets my vote.
This year’s Derby sponsored by Cazoo is at 4.30 and in a change to previous years Aidan O’Brien has only one runner in the field! That is the bookmakers’ choice, the highly fancied Bolshoi Ballet who, after a pretty mediocre 2-year-old season, has come out and won two fine trials at Leopardstown beating Mac Swiney and Southern Lights on the last occasion.
I expect the favourite to confirm the placings with those two but the firm ground expected at Epsom may not suit him. Charlie Appleby’s unbeaten Hurricane Lane was a fine winner of the Dante at York last month where he had Gear Up behind him and he is my idea of the winner.
Mohaafeth had a disappointing year in 2020 for William Haggas and this year out of his three wins, the best was a Listed win at Newmarket, that’s not good enough for this.
Ed Dunlop runs John Leeper whose biggest success was in a falsely run Listed race at Newmarket, that form is not good enough and he would need to show major improvement even with the help of Frankie Dettori on his back.
The Chester Vase was won by Youth Spirit for Andrew Balding and he is my choice as an each-way outsider but I will side with Hurricane Lane to take this Blue Riband contest.
Epsom Lucky Fifteen
2.00 Freak Out
2.35 Illykato
3.45 Recon Mission
4.30 Hurricane Lane
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365