Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
We really know we are coming to the end of this year’s flat season now that the Cesarewitch is upon us, and ITV Racing are covering four further races from Newmarket along with the big handicap. They consist of three Group 3s and the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, where Charlie Appleby runs his unbeaten Ancient Truth against Aidan O’Brien’s string of top 2-year-olds.
The other meeting on Saturday is from York with four races on offer, three handicaps and a Listed contest. So nine races on offer this week, which include some top-class contests for 2-year-olds, which will give us pointers for next year’s Classics and the last big handicap of the year, the 2m 2f Cesarewitch. Here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.05 York. Bolster
2.40 York. Strike Red
3.15 York. Valiant Knight
3.40 Newmarket. Dawn Rising
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at York with the 2.05 the Coral ‘Daily Rewards Shaker’ Handicap, this is a Class 2 race run over 1m 2 1/2f. Top weight here is Karl Burke’s Bolster, who finished a fine second after losing a shoe at Newbury last month.
William Knight’s Dual Identity ran disappointingly at Newmarket a fortnight ago, after finishing a good second at York in August.
The 3-year-old Valvano has been lightly raced, and a couple of placed efforts show he may add to last year’s victory, but this is tough.
At the other end of the spectrum is Jim Goldie’s Euchen Glen, who is an 11-year-old who shows he is still competitive with a second at Ayr last month.
Kevin Ryan’s Sisyphean has won twice this year and was not disgraced with a 4th place at Goodwood in August. He can go close but it’s Bolster for me.
The Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap is at 2.40. This is a Class 2 sprint run over 6 furlongs. Top weight is Kevin Ryan’s Room Service, who won at Pontefract in July then disappointed in the Ayr Gold Cup.
Several from that race feature here, but most of them ran way below form. The best of them was Richard Fahey’s Strike Red, who finished 10th. Prior to that, he had finished down the field at the Curragh but finished runner-up here at York in August.
Should I give King’s Lynn another chance, Andrew Balding’s gelding has disappointed this term despite hitting the frame on several occasions and has not won now for over 2 years. He is expensive to follow, but a stopped clock is right twice a day.
David O’Meara’s Summerghand is a York veteran, and although he has dropped down the handicap, he finds several too good now.
David Barron’s Jer Batt was a beaten favourite at Haydock last month after winning there earlier in the season. He can be placed here, but I prefer Strike Red.
The 3.15 is the Play Coral ‘Racing-Super-Series’ For Free Nursery Handicap, a Class 2 contest run over one mile. Top weight is Hugo Palmer’s Seagolazo, who won at Chester in July and was a good 4th at Doncaster last month.
Grant Tuer’s Chesneys Charm has won three times this season, latterly at Newcastle earlier this month, but all those victories have come on the all-weather. He is unproven on turf.
David O’Meara’s We Dare To Dream won a Class 5 at Haydock. This is tougher.
Karl Burke’s Our Mighty Mo has won twice at Hamilton and Haydock. He is sure to go well. But my preference is Ralph Beckett’s Valiant Knight who was only beaten a short head at Thirsk last month. He can go one better here.
Moving to Newmarket and at 3.40, it is the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap. This is a Class 2 race run over 2m 2f.
Willie Mullins, who won this race in 2018, 2019, and 2020, is the favourite for this year’s renewal with Sea Of Sands. His flat form is all on the continent but he has not run for over two years until joining the Mullins string and winning a maiden hurdle at Listowel last month. Whether that form justifies favouritism for such a prestigious race as this remains to be seen.
But the Irish have run five of the last six runnings of the Cesarewitch and there are several other Irish trainers with chances, who have their eyes on the prize. One of these is Emmet Mullins with his entries Jacovec Cavern and The Shunter. The former had his first run for two years when finishing second at Galway in July, while The Shunter won this last year and has not been seen since finishing 5th in a hurdle race last November! Make what you will of those bits of form.
Aidan O’Brien’s Queenstown has top weight, and the 4-year-old has shown good form this season with seconds in Group 3 and Listed races. However, he disappointed at York in August.
I like Joseph O’Brien’s Dawn Rising, who ran third at Royal Ascot then was 5th in a hot handicap at the Curragh last month.
As to the UK contenders, Ian Williams’s Roberto Escobarr is better than his last two runs.
Sir Mark Prescott’s Trooper Bisdee won twice in the spring and was a fair 4th in a prep race here at Newmarket last month. He can be placed.
Hughie Morrison’s Premiere Ligne was second over this course and distance last month, adding to a string of runner-up spots. That’s probably the best he can hope for here. I am between Queenstown and Dawn Rising and will go for the latter.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.05 York. Bolster
2.40 York. Strike Red
3.15 York. Valiant Knight
3.40 Newmarket. Dawn Rising
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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