Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
An unusually early start to ITV Racing this Saturday due to the Cup Final, so set your alarm clocks. Racing takes place this week from Britain’s top two tracks, with four races from Newbury and three from HQ, Newmarket.
Newbury features the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, the first major one-mile race of the season, and I am looking forward to seeing last season’s 2000Gns winner Notable Speech get his 4-year-old career off to a successful start prior to Royal Ascot. This top-rated race is backed up by a Group 3, a Listed race, and the London Gold Cup Handicap, so there is plenty to savour.
Meanwhile, at Newmarket, three races are being covered, all of which are handicaps, making it a good betting meeting. So here are my thoughts for the best value from this week’s seven contests and my Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.05 Newmarket. Persuasion
1.40 Newmarket. Fondo Blanco
2.15 Newmarket. Classic Encounter
2.00 Newbury. Genealogy
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Newmarket with the 1.05, the Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At Betmgm.co.uk Handicap, this is a Class 3 race run over 7 furlongs. The favourite here is William Haggas’s Waleefy, who had a very consistent season last year, winning on two occasions. He shaped like he needed the run on his seasonal reappearance at the beginning of this month, and a better run is expected.
Pam Sly’s Physique is a course and distance winner in 2022. His latest run was also here when he ran a fair second in a Class 2 contest.
At the bottom of the handicap is David O’Meara’s Leadman, who has been plying his trade on the all-weather. He was second in a Class 4 at Newcastle at the beginning of this month.
My preference is at the other end of the handicap. The top weight is David and Nicola Barron’s Persuasion, who won a Class 3 at Musselburgh in April. His latest run was earlier this month at Chester in a Class 2, where he was drawn widest of 8 runners. So that run can be discounted.
The 1.40 is the JCB Handicap, a Class 4 contest for 3-year-olds run over 7 furlongs. Top weight here is David O’Meara’s ultra-consistent We Dare To Dream, who has never been out of the first two in his six runs, winning twice. He won a Class 4 at Beverley earlier this month, and this looks about his level. He has plenty of weight here.
William Haggas’s Art Market is another who has raced and won at this level. When upped in class last season at York, he was never dangerous and trailed in 6th. However, after a couple of runs on the all-weather this season, he came here to Newmarket last month and won another Class 4 over this distance. He can figure once again.
Ralph Beckett’s Original Outlaw drops back in class after a couple of runs in Class 2 races but this is his first run of the season and he may need the outing.
I like Roger Varian’s Fondo Blanco, who won a Class 2 at York last October. He was only beaten a short head on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in April. He is upped in trip after that run, and a bold run is expected.
The Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Handicap is at 2.15, a one-mile Class 4 contest. Top weight is George Margarson’s Mythical Guest, who drops back in class after being a well-beaten second at Ascot in April. He has plenty of weight.
David and Nicola Barron’s Good Morning Alex won five times last season and has begun this campaign well by winning at Ripon last month, but this looks tougher.
Stuart Williams’s Where’s Freddy has won twice here at Newmarket over the July course but despite wins at Class 5 he seems to struggle when upped in class.
William Knight’s Royal Velvet won a Class 4 at Yarmouth last season. He ran 4th at that same course on his seasonal reappearance earlier this month. His low weight gives him a chance of a place.
George Boughey’s Classic Encounter looks like the answer here. He seems to have struggled as a 2- and 3-year-old but has come into his own this time around. He won a Class 3 at Redcar in April, then came here at the beginning of this month and ran a fine second in a similar race over this distance when favourite. He can make amends for that defeat.
Moving to Newbury for the final leg and the 2.00 is the Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap. This is a Class 2 contest run over 1m 2f for 3-year-olds. Top weight Nebras is trained by John and Thady Gosden, and he returns here after running over this distance at the beginning of this month in a Listed race. He ran a fair second that day and can be placed once more.
Another Gosden horse is Ernst Blofeld, who was third behind Nebras this month after previously winning on the all-weather at Kempton in April. He is 6 lbs better off here.
Roger Varian’s Saddadd ran here at Newbury in April and was a well-beaten second, making no impression over the final furlong. More is required.
At the bottom of the handicap is Jack Channon’s Lightening Mann, who has won twice already this season, including over this distance at Newmarket last time. He was headed in the final furlong but fought back tenaciously to regain the lead and take the spoils. I expect him to figure off his low weight.
But my preference is for Aidan O’Brien’s Genealogy, who won at Punchestown last September, then the following month was well beaten in a Grade 3 at Newmarket. His trainer has been hoovering up some big prizes already this season and this could well be another.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.05 Newmarket. Persuasion
1.40 Newmarket. Fondo Blanco
2.15 Newmarket. Classic Encounter
2.00 Newbury. Genealogy
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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