Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
This Saturday, with Cheltenham now only two months away, several of the Festival hopefuls are laying their credentials on the line with none more so than Nicky Henderson’s Johnson, who looks on his way to the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
He was withdrawn last year due to the poor running of Henderson’s runners on Day One. Let’s hope he gets his chance this year after his bold run in the Tingle Creek. He will be up against Willie Mullins’s Energumene, who won at Cork last month after an almost 600-day layoff and is Jonbon’s main rival. He will give Mullins a yardstick to judge his team against Henderson’s best besides this fascinating Grade 1 contest.
Ascot also stages a Grade 2 Mare’s Hurdle and two Class 2 Handicaps on ITV Racing. The other meeting being televised is from Haydock with three races being shown which includes a Grade 2 Supreme Novices Hurdle Trial, a Class 1 Handicap Chase and a Class 3 Handicap Chase.
So there are seven fine races to look forward to, and here are my thoughts for the best value bets this week and my Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.30 Haydock. Imagine
3.05 Haydock. Inox Allen
2.15 Ascot. Hitman
2.50 Ascot. Altobelli
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Starting at Haydock with their big race of the day, the Grade 3 Sky Bet Peter Marsh Handicap Chase, run over 3m 1 1/2f. The story of this race is Venetia Williams’s Royale Pagaille, who is going for his third victory in this contest after being successful in 2021 and 2022. He has proved himself to be something of a Haydock specialist, gaining his fifth victory here in November when he won the Betfair Chase.
But this handicap can prove a different matter to the Grade 1 Betfair. He has 12st on his back, which is a full 14lbs than his nearest rival, and he is prone to making mistakes with his jumping. So he can be opposed.
Kim Bailey’s Trelawne won here at Haydock last November, then ran a fair 4th at Ascot just before Christmas. Soft going will suit him.
Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango won at Sandown in early December. He drops back in trip but is up in class here.
Sam Thomas’s Iwilldoit was a good third in the Welsh National at Chepstow last month, but he may find this trip on the sharp side.
I prefer Harry Derham’s Imagine, who won twice in Ireland last season. He was pulled up at Cheltenham in November on his first run for his new trainer, who stated he needed a softer surface. He should get that as the ground thaws and can take this.
The 3.05 is the Sky Bet Cheltenham Non-Runner No Bet Handicap Hurdle, a Class 3 race run over 3m 1/2f. This is a very open race, and a case can be made for many of the protagonists, including top-weight Bold Endeavour, who, despite not having won for two years, is not without a chance for trainer LJ Morgan. He was pulled up in a Class 2 last November. He is dropped down in class to try and get off the mark for the season.
Dan Skelton’s Punta Del Este ran 5th here at Haydock in November. He is another who drops down in class but has plenty of weight.
Tom Lacey’s Tune In A Box has run well on his last two occasions, especially when running second at Chepstow last month. A bold show is expected.
Down at the bottom of the handicap is Philip Hobbs’s Tiny Tetley, who won at Taunton last month when he stayed on well after the final flight. A repetition of that will see him go close.
But I like the look of Lucinda Russell’s Inox Allen, who won twice over hurdles last season. He ran a fair third on his seasonal reappearance at Uttoxeter in November, and he is my selection in this open race.
Ascot’s 2.15 is the bet365 Handicap Chase, a Class 2 run over 2m 5f, where Paul Nicholls’s Hitman is the top weight. He is the class horse in the race who has been placed in his last two races, which were Graded contests. Prior to that, he was considered good enough to run in the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He should make mincemeat of this lot but he has 12st to carry.
Venetia Williams’s Martator is a fairly young horse on the up, but a string of 5 wins came to a shuddering halt when tried in Graded company at Kempton’s Christmas meeting. He loves Ascot but is up near the top of the handicap.
Gary and Josh Moore’s Kotmask won here at Ascot just before Christmas, beating Joe Tizzard’s Scarface into second, but Tizzard’s horse is 3lbs better off here and can reverse those placings.
Ben Pauling’s Bad has been knocking on the door with place runs on his last three outings, but he steps up in class here and is out of the handicap.
Of the bottom weights, I prefer Tedley, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. He put up a brave show to finish runner-up at Newbury in November and can be placed once again. But class will tell, and for that reason, I can see no further than Nicholls’s Hitman.
Finally, we come to another very open race, the 2.50 at Ascot, the BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle, a Class 2 contest run over 2m 3 1/2f. Top weight is Goshen, trained by Gary and Josh Moore, who is a course and distance winner. This is his first run of the season after finishing off last term with a victory at Exeter in March. He has plenty of weight.
Nicky Henderson’s Bo Zenith ran third at Cheltenham in December. His first run for 20 months, if he has come out of that ok, he is sure to put up a bold show, but he also has lots of weight.
Nicky Henderson’s Doddiethegreat was pulled up after the 1st at Kempton on Boxing Day. I think he is best watched here.
Philip Hobbs’s Georgi Girl won a Class 3 at Warwick in November then ran 5th at Cheltenham when upped in class the following month. More is required.
As a live outsider of a low weight I like Henry Daly’s Bowenspark who was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths behind Fergal O’Brien’s Kamsinas at Aintree in October.
Bowenspark is 7lbs better off here and can make that tell to hit the frame at a big price.
But my idea of the winner is Harry Fry’s Altobelli, who ran a close second on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in December. His jumping looked like it needed some work, but he has had some time to gain an improvement.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.30 Haydock. Imagine
3.05 Haydock. Inox Allen
2.15 Ascot. Hitman
2.50 Ascot. Altobelli
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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