Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Ayr racecourse takes centre stage this Saturday for its biggest, richest day of the year with five races being covered by ITV Racing from the Scottish track.
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The card features Group 3, a Listed race, and three top-class handicaps, including the Silver Cup and Europe’s richest sprint, the Ayr Gold Cup. I have run the rule over those below.
The other meeting being televised is at Newbury, and this card is just as strong as that at Ayr. There are four races being shown from the Berkshire course, including a Group 2, a Group 3 and two Class 2 handicaps.
So nine top-class contests to look forward to, and here are my thoughts for the best value amongst them and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.37 Newbury. French Duke
2.47 Newbury. Stem
1.20 Ayr. Spoken Truth
3.40 Ayr. Far Above Dream
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning at Newbury with the 1.37 the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap, this is a Class 2 race run over 1m 5 1/2f. The current favourite here is Jane Chappell-Hyam’s Primo Lara, who has won three from his last four outings. However, those wins came in Class 3, 4 and 5 races, and while the gelding has shown improvement, this is a big step up in class and distance.
Jonathan Portman’s Bulletin record shows he is always close to the head of the field, but there are few victories among those place results.
Hamad Al Jehani’s French Duke won at Meydan in January but has shown little since until last month at York when he ran second, beaten a nose, in a top-class handicap.
Olly Murphy’s Roaring Legend was runner-up a couple of times on the all-weather earlier this year and was beaten by only a neck at a huge price at Newmarket in July. A repeat of that form could see him in the frame.
I like the look of Henrietta Knight’s In The Breeze, who has won twice this term and was a fine second at Haydock earlier this month, but he needs soft ground. Without that, I side with French Duke.
The 2.43 is the Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a top-class race run over 1m 2f worth over £30,000 to the winner. Richard Hannon’s Boyfriend is the current favourite after running consistently well this season. He won a Class 3 in May and has been placed three times since. He moves up in class here.
Hannon also runs Stem, who won at Sandown in July and ran third at the same track in August. Both were Class 2 contests, and he should be suited here.
Jane Chappell-Hyam’s Balzac is another who won early in the season, but he has done very little since, finishing runner-up earlier this month at Ascot. The booking of Billy Loughnane is noted.
Sir Mark Prescott’s Almekarem lurks at the bottom of the handicap, and although his runs and latest win have come in Class 4 contests, he is better than that and can hit the frame off his low weight.
I think Hannon’s two runners will prove the biggest challengers here, and I go for his Stem.
Moving over the border to Scotland and Ayr’s big meeting kicks off with the 1.20 the Ladbrokes “Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer” Handicap, this a Class 2 contest run over 1 mile. Hamad Al Jehani’s English Oak has top weight. He won twice at Meydan at the beginning of the year but has been unable to transfer that form to British courses.
Michael Dods’ Northern Express won at York in July and has run creditably since. He is a past winner at Ayr.
George Boughey has the talking horse here with McMurray, who won three times as a 2-year-old but has not been seen since winning at Chester in May.
Coyle & Wood’s Thunder Roar won this last year but his form since has been poor to say the least. He has 4lbs less than last year.
Bottom weight is Karl Burke’s Naval Light who won a couple of Class 4s earlier this season and was placed in a Class 3 at Epsom last month.
I prefer David O’Meara’s Spoken Truth here. He has run consistently well all season and finally got his head in front last time out in a Class 2 at Ripon on the last day of August, beating English Oak and Thunder Roar. He can go in again.
Finally, it is the big race of the day, the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup is at 3.40. This is a Class 2 Heritage Handicap run over a sharp 6 furlongs. The Haggas team is in fine form, and William Haggas has three runners in this, including the favourite. That jolly is Binhareer, who has been a beaten favourite twice this season. Last time out, he ran 4th of 7 in a Group 3 at Newbury in July.
Haggas’s Thunder Call has won three times this season, including last time out at Ascot earlier this month in a Class 2. He also has Wiltshire, who won at Newcastle in April but has disappointed in two runs since.
Ollie Sangster’s Tuco Salamanca has won three times this season, latterly at Ascot in Aug. A bold run is expected.
Hamad Al Jehani’s Evening Saigon was a fine winner at Goodwood in early August. Then, at York later in the month, he led into the final furlong but faded to 5th.
Richard Spencer’s Run Boy Run won this last year, but his last five efforts have been very disappointing. Spencer’s Twilight Calls has sneaked in at the bottom of the handicap, and his last five runs have been a revelation with three wins and two runner-up places. He can go close once again.
James Owen’s Far Above Dream won at Newbury and Goodwood in May, and he was only beaten a nose last time out at York in August. So I just give him the nod over Thunder Call and Twilight Calls.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.37 Newbury. French Duke
2.47 Newbury. Stem
1.20 Ayr. Spoken Truth
3.40 Ayr. Far Above Dream
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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