Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
This Saturday is Cheltenham Trials Day, but unfortunately, the Trials bear very little resemblance to the highly contested cards we will be able to see in March at the Festival. ITV Racing are showing five races from Prestbury Park, which include three Grade 2s, a Class 1 Premier Handicap, and a Class2 Cross Country Handicap, and it’s the Grade 2s I take issue with.
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These contests seek to represent trials for the Gold Cup, the Champion Hurdle, and the Long Distance Hurdle, when in fact they bear no resemblance to what we will see in 7 weeks’ time, as most trainers are swerving the Trials despite the prize money, with only 14 horses contesting those three races.
But help is at hand with a fine card being televised from Doncaster with three very competitive races that include two Grade 2s and a Class 1 Premier Handicap.
So I have looked through the cards for value, and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.15 Cheltenham. Triple Trade
12.55 Doncaster. Thedeviluno
1.20 Doncaster. Dream On Baby
2.05 Doncaster. Docpickedme
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning at Cheltenham with the 1.15, the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase. This is a Grade 3 Premier Handicap run over 2m 4 1/2f. There are plenty of chances here, not least the top weight, Dan Skelton’s Boombawn, who has been running in Grade 2s this season in small fields. He drops back in class to find a victory, but his weight may hold him back.
Oliver Greenall and J Guerriero’s Jagwar is the highly fancied favourite after his four wins last season, including a Grade 3 at the Cheltenham Festival, but his jumping last month at that course left a lot to be desired, and he finished third. He also has plenty of weight.
Olly Murphy’s Booster Bob won comfortably at Newbury in November and is upped in class here.
Last year’s winner, Moon d’Orange, returns to try to retain his crown for trainer John McConnell, but he has run poorly so far this season.
Jane Williams’s Javert Allen has run fairly well in Class 3s so far this season and can go well off bottom weight and may be placed.
Joe Tizzard’s Triple Trade ran a good third here last month, then went to Sandown and won earlier this month. Although upped in class here, he has a puncher’s chance, and he gets the nod.
Moving north to Doncaster and the 12.55 is the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places River Don Novices Hurdle. This Grade 2 race is run over 3m 1/2f. Dan Skelton’s Carlenrig won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in December, where he was all out to lead in the final strides.
Ruth Jefferson’s Country Code has won two lowly Class 4s this season, carrying plenty of weight on both occasions.
Ben Pauling’s Kicour La has won twice at Leicester in Class 3 and 4 races on soft and heavy ground. Plenty of rain will suit him.
Sam Thomas’s Rocking Man won at Chepstow in November, where he beat Carlenrig by 3 lengths. He is another who would like it soft.
Rebecca Curtis’s The Price Of Peace looked a force to be reckoned with when winning by 11 lengths at Chepstow in December. He can go close.
But I just prefer an Irish raider trained by Paul Nolan, Thedeviluno, who won a 20-runner Maiden Hurdle at Gowran Park in November, then ran a fair second in a Grade 2 at Navan last month. That sort of form may be good enough to take this.
The Virgin Bet A Good Bet Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 contest run over 3m 1/2f, is off at 1.30. There is a very strong Irish entry for this race, with them having the first three in the betting, one of which is last year’s winner Jetara, trained by Mrs John Harrington. She was placed in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in May, then placed in a Grade 2 at Navan in November. At the end of December, she went for a walk in the betting in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown and finished 7th of 8, beaten by 56 lengths. It remains to be seen if that was a one-off.
Emmet Mullins’s Dream On Baby won a Listed race at Kempton in November, then ran third in a Grade 3 at Leopardstown at the end of December, finishing 3 lengths behind Paul Nolan’s Feet Of A Dancer, to whom he was conceding 4lbs. They meet on level terms here.
Feet Of A Dancer had won a Listed race in November at Punchestown prior to the Leopardstown race, so there is a very strong Irish contingent.
The best of the UK entries may be Ruth Jefferson’s Lavida Adiva, who was a course and distance winner in a Listed race last month. But it’s an Irish victory for me with Dream.
The 2.05 is the Virgin Bet Great Handicap Chase, which is a Class 1 Premier Handicap run over 3 miles. The top weight and one of the favourites is Christian Williams’s Deep Cave, who finished last season by winning a Grade 3 Hurdle race at Aintree. This season, he has won two Chases, including a Grade 3 at Ascot last month.
The other fancied horse is Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith’s Grand Geste, who was runner-up in his first two starts this term, then galloped through the soft ground at Haydock just before Christmas and thrashed a good field. Any rain will help his course.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Josh The Boss walked over at Newbury in November, then came here to Doncaster and beat three rivals easily later in the month. On Boxing Day, he ran second at Aintree despite going off favourite. This is tougher.
Emma Lavelle’s King’s Threshold ran up a treble last season and got off the mark this term at Newbury last month when he won comfortably. A bold run is expected.
While I consider Deep Cave is the one to beat, I take a chance with Richard Hobson’s Docpickedme, who is something of a Doncaster specialist, having won here three times, including this race last season. He also won over this course and distance last month, and while he has a stone more to carry than last year, this has been his target, and he will make a bold effort to regain his crown.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.15 Cheltenham. Triple Trade
12.55 Doncaster. Thedeviluno
1.20 Doncaster. Dream On Baby
2.05 Doncaster. Docpickedme
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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