Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
There is only one way to describe this Saturday’s racing on ITV. Top class, with action from Ascot and York. The Ascot card tops the bill with four televised races from the Berkshire track.
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The highlight of the day is the Group 1 King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, where the last two winners, both French-trained, take on the best the Irish and Japanese can offer, and I side with Masquerade Ball to claim this huge prize. This is backed up by two Group 3 fillies’ races and a Class 2 Heritage handicap.
Meanwhile, the three races being covered from York include a Group 3 and two handicaps, one of which is a Class 4 for jump jockeys, and the other is a Class 2 Heritage handicap.
So while we have all this class action, it does mean that betting-wise there are only three handicaps, and one of which is a bit of a ‘celebrity’ race for jump jockeys, so forgive me if I go a little off-piste for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.00 York. Air Force One
4.17 York. Ashnak
2.55 Ascot. Back In Black
4.45 Ascot. Blue Rc
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
I move to York’s 4.17 to find some competitive racing and the Sky Bet Build A Bet Handicap fits the bill. This Class 3 contest is run over 1m 4f. Top weight is Kevin de Foy’s Tycoon, who ran a fair third in a Class 2 at Ascot earlier this month. He is looking for his first win of the season.
Edward Bethell’s Caliban won twice on the all-weather at Southwell and Kempton and is having his first run for his new trainer.
Gihan Arnolda’s Damascus Steel has also won his last two races, both Class 4 contests at Goodwood and Epsom during the last 6 weeks. So he deserves to be upped in class and can go close.
David O’Meara’s Ashnak came up against a hot handicapper at Ayr in June, finishing second in a Class 2.
Ralph Beckett’s Likealot ran a fair 4th on her seasonal debut at Chester last month and is expected to need this step up in trip. So I am between Ashnak and Likealot, and O’Meara’s Ashnak gets the nod.
Beginning at York with the 2.00 the Sky Bet Dash, this is a Class 2 Heritage Handicap run over the sharp 6 furlongs of the Knavesmire. The current favourite here is Tim Easterby’s Red Spells Danger, who won a couple of small races in May. Since then, he has been upped in class and ran a fine second in a 22-runner race here at York but disappointed earlier this month at Newmarket.
Clive Cox’s Addison Grey has gone off favourite on his last three starts but has disappointed on each occasion. He has a good chance but looks high enough in the weights.
Geoff Oldroyd’s top weight Pocklington has never won on turf and looks too highly weighted to figure here.
Hugo Palmer’s Stratusnine had a terrible draw last month at Chester, and that form can be discounted. Prior to that, he was out of his depth over 7 furlongs at Royal Ascot but ran a fine second in May over 5 furlongs here at York. He can go close.
But I just prefer Geoff Oldroyd’s Air Force One, who ran 5th in Stratusnine’s race here in May. He was only three-quarters of a length behind Palmer’s horse but is now 3lbs better off. Since then, he has run third at Newcastle in a hot handicap last month. He won here last season and can step up in trip to be successful.
The 2.55 at Ascot is the Moet & Chandon International Handicap, a Group 2 Heritage Handicap run over 7 furlongs. One of the top weights is Harry Charlton’s Completely Random, who ran second here at the Royal meeting, beaten just a head, but that was in a 6-furlong contest. He has never won over this distance.
Jack Channon’s Mezcala won a 7-furlong handicap here last month. His second win of this campaign after a victory at Doncaster in March, but he has risen in the handicap.
The favourite is William Haggas’s Extremely Zain. This unbeaten colt is looked upon as a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper after his fine win at York last month in a Class 3. He has risen 8lbs for that win.
Jamie Osbourne’s Amazing Journey looks to have an excellent chance off bottom weight after winning here at Ascot earlier this month, but he steps up in class and trip here and may still hit the frame.
Aalto won at Newmarket for trainer Ian Williams a fortnight ago, but he has a 3lbs penalty for that win.
It’s the horse that was second to Aalto that interests me here, James Fanshawe’s Back In Black. He dwelt at the start then switched left, then right, then left again. He was only beaten half a length after all that, so I trust him to maintain a straight course and gain his revenge.
For the final leg, I move to the 4.45 at Ascot, the Class 2 Betfred Handicap run over the straight mile. The top weight here is James Tate’s Blue Rc, who won on the all-weather at Southwell in January. Since then, he has been running with credit in Class 2 company, including a fine second in the Royal Hunt Cup here at Ascot last month, where Jack Channon’s Urban Lion finished tailed off that day but is 5lb better off here.
James Owen’s Asmen Warrior won a Class 3 at Newmarket earlier this month, beating Spanish Voice and Hickory, who he meets once again here. He needs fast ground to show his best.
Daniel and Claire Kubler’s Grizedale disappointed at York last month but has bounced back with two victories in July at Newbury and Kempton, both Class 4 races. He is upped in class here and will find this tough.
Jennie Candish’s Frankie’s Dream is at the bottom of the handicap, but he has shown some promise during the season with places at Thirsk, Beverley and York. He may be placed again at a high price. But I go for Blue Rc to gain some recompense for his disappointment in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.00 York. Air Force One
4.17 York. Ashnak
2.55 Ascot. Back In Black
4.45 Ascot. Blue Rc
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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