Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It’s the last hurrah for the jumps season with the card at Sandown providing the final day of NH action and the conclusion to the Trainer’s Championship.
ITV Racing are covering four races from the Esher track, with three Class 1s and a Class 2 contest for us to look forward to. This meeting is backed up by two Class 2 flat handicaps, one from Haydock and one from Leicester. So, just six races to choose from this week, and here are my thoughts for the best value bets and Saturday’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.20 Sandown. Fasol
4.10 Sandown. Dancing City
2.05 Leicester. Trilby
2.40 Haydock. English Oak
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Sandown with the 1.20, the bet365 Novices Championship Final Handicap Hurdle, this Class 2 contest is run over 2 miles. Gary and Josh Moore’s Give It To Me Oj has won on two of his last three outings and, slotted between those victories, ran a very creditable 4th in a Grade 1 at Aintree earlier this month. Despite his weight, he looks the one to beat.
Fergal O’Brien’s Serious Challenge has won his last three races, all Class 4s, and is deservedly upped in class, but he has plenty of weight.
Ben Pauling’s Wolf Moon has also won a couple of Class 4s, but the stable is out of form.
Nicky Henderson’s Kientzheim won at Kempton on Boxing Day but has disappointed since, including last time when finishing fourth of five after going off favourite.
I am looking to Paul Nicholls’s Fasol to come good after scoring just once this season. He was beaten a neck when going off a short-priced favourite last month at Taunton and can gain recompense here at the expense of the top weight.
The bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase is at 4:10. This is a Class 1, Grade 3 Handicap run over 3 miles 4 furlongs. This race appears to be all about the horses from Willie Mullins’s yard as he has no fewer than 10 of the 20 runners, including the top weight Grangeclare West, who ran a very creditable third in the Grand National, but his weight poses a problem.
Mullins’s Minella Cocooner won this race last year and did well to finish 7th in the National. He is due to carry 8 lbs less than he carried to victory last year.
Perhaps the best of the Mullins runners is Dancing City. This novice ran a fair 6th in a Grade 1 novice chase at Cheltenham in March, then fell in a similar race at Aintree earlier this month. If that run has not put too much of a dent in his confidence, he could prove his mettle here.
As to the rest of the runners, I would be pleased to see Venetia Williams’s Victtorino put up a bold show and crown a fine season for the trainer, but the horse seems something of an Ascot specialist, having won there on four occasions.
Dan Skelton’s hopes lie with Holy Joe Smoke, who has won twice here at Sandown this season, but he is upped in both class and distance and is racing from 12lbs out of the handicap.
Olly Murphy’s Resplendent Grey is not without a chance on his Cheltenham form last month, but he is another upped in class. So the race looks at Mullins’s mercy, and I go for Dancing City.
Changing codes and moving to Leicester for the 2.05, the Carling King Richard III Cup Handicap. This is a Class 2 contest run over 6 furlongs. Old favourite Commanche Falls heads the weights here.
Michael Dods’ stable stalwart has not won in almost two years, but he is a past winner of a Class 1 race. Perhaps he needs to drop down the handicap to get back to winning ways.
Richard Fahey’s Strike Red won at York last October and had a prep run on the a/w at Southwell earlier this month, but he looks high enough in the handicap.
Kevin Ryan, Sergeant Wilko, ran up a hat-trick last season and goes well fresh. He can go close.
Harry Charlton’s Completely Random won on the a/w at Southwell earlier this month but has yet to prove himself on turf.
I like the look of Sam England’s Trilby, who is moved up in class here after winning a Class 3 at Beverley earlier this month. He is a consistent sort who seems to go well early in the season, and he gets the nod here.
The other featured meeting on ITV is at Haydock, and their 2.40 is covered. This is the Try Unibet’s New Same Race Multi’s Handicap, a 7-furlong Class 2 contest. Beginning at the bottom of the handicap with Steph Hollingshead’s Myal, who ran up a four-timer last Autumn, including over this course and distance. He ran a good third last month at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance, and a bold run is expected.
The winner of that Doncaster race was Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood’s Thunder Roar, but he was subsequently disqualified and placed second after causing interference. He will be looking to make amends.
Ed Dunlop’s Skukuza is a consistent sort but drops down in trip here and may find these too speedy.
Despite his top weight, I prefer Ed Walker’s English Oak, who was a Royal Ascot winner last season. He is a course and distance winner, and his trainer states he has been gelded over the winter and comes here looking well.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.20 Sandown. Fasol
4.10 Sandown. Dancing City
2.05 Leicester. Trilby
2.40 Haydock. English Oak
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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