Saturday’s Horse Racing Preview & Tips- 5th October 2024 – Seymour Biz

saturday horse racing tips and previews from expert tipster seymour biz on everytipFind all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.

All eyes will be turned to Paris this weekend and the Prix de I’Arc de Triomphe meeting. However, there is a very poor turnout for the big race itself from British trainers with just two entries.

The Japanese have long had this race in their sights and have hit the bar on several occasions, but this could be their year with Yoshito Yanagi’s Shin Emperor, who has been specifically aimed at this race for some time.

But back to our own racing, there are three meetings being televised this Saturday, with racing from Ascot, Newmarket, and Redcar. The main meeting is at Ascot with three Class 1s and a Class 2 handicap, while Newmarket features the Class 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and two Class 2s.

It’s nice to see Redcar being televised, even if it is for just one race, a Class 1 Listed race. It’s a shame the Straight Mile Handicap hasn’t made the programme. So, after looking through these races for value, here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.

Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.30 Newmarket. La Pasionaria
3.00 Ascot. Vadream
3.35 Ascot. Carrytheone
3.20 Redcar. Midnight Strike
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365

Beginning at Newmarket with the 1.30 the British EBF Premier Fillies Handicap a Class 2 contest over 1m 2f. Andrew Balding’s Warda Jamila won by a short head at Haydock in September, adding to a victory at Ascot in May, but steps up in class here.

David Menuisier’s Ashariba has been successful on three occasions this season, twice on the all-weather. However, this is a major step up in class.

Another stepping up in class is Michael and David Easterby’s Yorkshire Lady who won at Ayr last month, this is much tougher.

William Haggas’s Min Huna is on a hat-trick after wins at Sandown and Windsor in low-rated contests. However, she has risen in the handicap and would do well to be placed.

Karl Burke has done well on the last two Saturdays in big handicaps, and his Karmology can go well after two seconds in the Listed company. However, she disappointed last month at Yarmouth.

My preference is for Ralph Beckett’s La Pasionaria, who has been plying her trade in Group 3 company. While she has found that rather hot, she should be able to show her class here.

At Ascot the 3.00 is the John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes, this is a Group 3 Sprint run over 6 furlongs. The bookies’ choice is Owen Burrows’s Jarraaf, who has won his last two over this course and distance. However, those were handicaps, and this is a major step up in class.

Andrew Balding’s Purosague was second in a Listed race at York last month and prior to a poor run at Goodwood has also been second in a Group 3 at Sandown. That sort of form will see him go close.

Ed Walker’s English Oak won a couple of handicaps in May And June one of which was here at Ascot but he has struggled in Group and Listed company since.

Charlie Fellowes’s Vadream was a fine third in a Listed race at Newmarket in August then ran a tremendous race to finish fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. His run at the Curragh can be forgiven as he missed the break, and the race was only over the minimum distance. A reproduction of the Haydock form would make him a formidable opponent.

Ascot’s 3.35 is the best betting race of the day, the BetMGM Challenge Cup is a Class 2 contest run over 7 furlongs. Ralph Beckett’s Qirat is the current favourite in this after two victories this season at Goodwood on both occasions but that course is nothing like Ascot and he can be opposed.

An Ascot specialist is James Fanshawe’s Fresh, who won here for the fourth time last month. He is sure to go close.

David O’Meara has three in this, Rhoscolyn won over a mile at Goodwood last month, Bopedro has struggled all season and Mirsky’s best run was a second over a mile at York in August – none of them make much appeal.

Amanda Perrett’s Rebel Territory was a course and distance winner in May last year and has been lightly raced since, perhaps with this contest in mind.

William Haggas’s Germanic was upped in class last time at Doncaster and ran a fine third. He can go close once again off his low mark.

Another at the bottom of the handicap is Kevin Ryan’s Volterra who was an unlucky second at York in August and is another for the frame.

But my preference is for the top weight, Michael Bell’s Carrytheon. He has won at Chepstow and Newmarket this season. He was unsuited by the turns at Chester but, prior to that, had run a good third here at Ascot in August.

Finally, moving north to the seaside at Redcar and at 3.20 it is the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy, this is a Listed race run over a sharp 6 furlongs. Michael Dods’s Northern Ticker has won at Carlisle and Newcastle and is upped in class here.

Tom Clover’s Invictus Gold has followed a similar path winning a couple of lowly races at Newmarket and Southwell.

Richard Spencer’s Candy won two races last month, including a Class 2 at Ayr. He can go close.

Eve Johnson Houghton’s Billboard Star is the current favourite after being placed in a Group 2 at Newbury last time, a good run is anticipated.

Dylan Cunha’s Zminiature won a Class 2 at Doncaster in March and has since been running in Class 1 company but has only been placed once in three efforts.

I take a chance with an Irish raider, Joseph O’Brien’s Midnight Strike, who disappointed at Royal Ascot after winning the first time out at the Curragh. Since Ascot, she has been running in Group 2’s and drops back to Listed company here.

Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.30 Newmarket. La Pasionaria
3.00 Ascot. Vadream
3.35 Ascot. Carrytheone
3.20 Redcar. Midnight Strike
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365

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