Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It’s Derby Day, and Epsom has put the bunting out to try and inject some excitement into the proceedings. Let’s just hope they don’t go back to letting off fireworks. They have managed to get ITV Racing to concentrate solely on this fixture this Saturday, totally ignoring the other six race meetings that are due to go ahead during the day. In a four-hour programme, they have managed to fit in six races, a race every forty minutes, while we have to endure endless waffle from the presenters in between.
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To return to the racing, besides the Group 1 Derby, we have the Group 1 Coronation Cup, and these two top-class races are backed up by two Group 3s and two Class 2 Handicaps. I have looked through these contests for value, and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Epsom Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.05 Sparks Fly
3.15 Arklow Lad
4.00 Item
4.40 Allegresse
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning with Epsom’s 2.05, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 race for Fillies and Mares, run over a distance of 1m 1/2f. David Loughnane’s Sparks Fly is fancied here after winning a Group 3 in France (Saint-Cloud) at the end of last season. She returned there in March but dwelt at the start and threw away her chances. Her latest run in the Huxley Stakes at Chester was over 10 1/2 furlongs. She drops back to a more suitable trip.
James Fanshawe’s Pina Sonata won a Listed race on the all-weather at Kempton in March. This is tougher.
Charlie Fellowes’s Shes Perfect was disqualified after winning a Group 1 at Longchamp last May. Since then, her best run was at Goodwood last month when she finished third. More is required.
Andrew Balding’s Pacific Mission benefits from her age allowance. She produced two good runs in Group races last season, finishing runner-up on both occasions, but ran poorly at York last month. She will find Sparks Fly too good.
The 3.15 is the Betfred “Dash” Handicap, a Class 2 contest run over a sharp 5 furlongs, as the term “Dash” implies. Robert Cowell’s Democracy Dilemma is fancied by some off top weight. He won a Listed race last season but has shown little this term. His latest run at Windsor showed little. He has plenty of weight.
Cowell also runs Lexington Blitz, who has shown better form. His win at Goodwood on May Day saw him beat several opponents he meets again here, but he has taken a dramatic rise in the handicap.
William Haggas’s Kinswoman is ultra consistent at her level. She has been in the first two on her last seven outings, winning three. She is deservedly upped in class here and may hit the frame.
Ian Williams’s Dyonisos ran a fine second at Goodwood last month, but I tend not to trust sprint form from that course. However, the trainer won this race in 2021.
Tony Carrroll’s Dream Composer won this race in 2024, but he has changed yards since then. He won at Ripon in April and was unlucky in running at Goodwood last time, and that seems to have rejuvenated him. He can go close.
But I just prefer Michael Appleby’s Arklow Lad, who won at Pontefract in April and then ran a fair 5th at York last month. He can go in again.
The Betfred Derby is at 4.00, the Group 1 is run over 1m 4f of Epsom’s switchback course and as usual looks very competitive. Let us begin with Aidan O’Brien’s entries, as he has produced six of the last ten winners, including the last three. This year, he has four runners in the field, including the current favourite Benvenuto Cellini, who won twice as a 2-year-old and then won the Chester Vase in May by over 4 lengths.
Pierre Bonnard was a triple winner last season, including a Group 1 in France, but this season he has been defeated twice at Leopardstown after going off favourite on both occasions.
Christmas Day beat Pierre Bonnard in April, then ran a disappointing third in the Dante at York last month.
Action ran second in the Dante, beaten almost 3 lengths, and his only victory was in a Galway maiden last August. However, he ran a good second in the Futurity last October at Doncaster, and any rain will help his cause.
Charlie Johnson’s Ancient Egypt has done very little wrong in his career and won a trial at Newmarket last month, but is he up to this class? I doubt it.
Ralph Beckett’s Bay Of Brilliance won twice as a 2-year-old, then ran a close second in a Lingfield trial last month.
William Haggas’s Maltese Cross won that trial, adding to a victory at Newbury in April. There is a lot to like about him. He can hit the frame.
Joseph O’Brien has James J Braddock in this. He beat Pierre Bonnard at Leopardstown last month and may go close here.
The main UK hope is Andrew Balding’s Dante winner, Item. This unbeaten Frankel colt won well at York, and a repeat of that run could see him repel O’Brien’s Benvenuto Cellini.
Finally, the Cherryfield (Croydon) Lester Piggott Handicap is at 4.40. This is a Class 2 three-year-old handicap run over 1m 2f. Ralph Beckett’s Hell Yeah He Did makes his seasonal reappearance after winning at Nottingham last October in a Class 4 race.
Roger Varian’s Starlight Time won twice last season, including here at Epsom last July. A bold run is expected.
Charlie Johnson’s Folk Pageant has won three times already this season, but is upped in class here.
Sean Woods has Savvy Disko in the lineup after he won on the all-weather at Lingfield in a Class 4. An improvement is necessary to figure here, and he may be capable of it.
My preference is for Andrew Balding’s Allegresse, who won twice on the all-weather last season, then ran in a Group 3 at Newmarket in October. He was disputing the lead, then started wandering around. He tried to make all at Goodwood last month but was beaten just over 2 lengths. He is capable of taking this.
Epsom Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.05 Sparks Fly
3.15 Arklow Lad
4.00 Item
4.40 Allegresse
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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