Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
As is usual on the Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival, it is pretty thin fare on the horse racing front, except for the Sandown card. There are four races being televised from the Esher track, the highlight being the Class 2 Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle. This is backed up by two Class 1s and a Class 3 Handicap Chase.
ITV Racing also features a race from Hereford, a Class 3 chase. It’s nice to see the cameras venturing into the Marcher countryside.
To fill out the programme, there are two races on the all-weather at Wolverhampton being shown, a Class 2 Lincoln Trial Handicap and a Class 1 Listed race. So here are my thoughts on the value for this week’s seven races and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Sandown Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Belliano
2.25 Spirits Bay
3.00. Supreme Malinas
3.35. Dreaming Blue
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
At Sandown, the first televised race is the 1.50 the Europeanp Breeders Fund Betfair ‘National Hunt’ Novices Handicap Hurdle Final. This is a Grade 3 contest run over 2m 4f. The top weight and favourite is Kim Bailey’s The Kemble Brewery, who won two minor races earlier in the season but was beaten by 2 lengths at Ludlow in December by Ben Pauling’s Meetmebythesea, to whom he was giving 11lbs. He is 10lbs better off here.
But Meetmebythesea is nothing if not brave, as shown in his three victories this season. He came out after that Ludlow win to race at Doncaster in January and got home by neck after a sustained battle with the second. This should be a great repeat performance between these two, but they have plenty of weight, and there are several more with chances.
Pauling has another runner with Its Hard To Know. He won twice before Christmas but was well beaten in a Grade 1 novice race at Newbury on Boxing Day.
Emma Lavelle’s George’s Lad won in a canter at Doncaster in January and cannot be discounted if reproducing that form.
Lucy Wadham’s Aviation finally got his head in front at Fakenham last month after running consistently prior to that.
But I prefer Paul Nicholls’s Belliano, who has recorded two victories this season at Ascot in December and Market Rasen last month. He will have no trouble over this distance, whereas some of the other protagonists are taking it on for the first time.
The 2.25 is the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle, a Class 2 race run over 2 miles. This fast and furious contest requires a horse that is nippy over the hurdles and gets to the other side as fast as possible over this minimum distance, and having to carry a lot of weight is a distinct disadvantage. Top weight is Sam Thomas’s Lump Sum, who has run second twice in Graded races so far this season. There may be better handicapped horses in the field.
Dan Skelton’s Knickerbockerglory won here at Sandown in December, then ran a good third at Windsor in January under plenty of weight. He had several of these behind him that day.
Nicky Henderson’s Bo Zenith won twice last season but has failed to fire this term. On his last run in January, he could only manage 5th at Ascot and drops back to the minimum trip to try and reverse his fortunes.
The Irish raider, Willie Mullins’s Batman Girac, ran two shockers before turning up at Leopardstown in February in a Listed race and was challenging the winner before falling at the last.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Spirits Bay won a couple of times last season and was given plenty of weight in his first two outings this season. He then raced against Constitution Hill at Cheltenham in January, running a respectable third, beaten just over 5 lengths. A repeat of that form gives him a chance.
The Listed race at 3.00 is the British Stallion Studs EBF Mares Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race, a 2-mile contest. Alan King’s Charisma Cat is the bookies’ choice and, after a couple of victories, was unlucky at Market Rasen in January when finishing runner-up. She is sure to put up a bold show.
Fergal O’Brien’s Dream Shadow was third that day a length behind Charisma Cat, and I can’t see her reversing those placings.
Jamie Snowden’s A Path To Ronda won on her only outing, a Class 5 at Uttoxeter last December. This is a major step up in class.
Similarly, with Anthony Honeyball’s Easy Love, who also won a Class 5 at Plumpton in December. She will also find this tougher.
I like the look of Dan Skelton’s Supreme Malinas, who won a Listed race at Huntingdon in December. She then got held up in midfield at Windsor the following month before emerging from the pack to finish a fast-paced third. She can take this.
Finally, the 3.35 is the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase. This Class 3 race is run over 3 miles. Gary & Josh Moore’s Goshen has been running in Graded races this season and was a fair 5th at Ascot last month, beaten just 5 3/4 lengths, but his weight may anchor him.
Nicky Henderson runs Excello, who started this season with a couple of runner-up spots, but his form has tailed off lately. Perhaps some better ground may help.
Dan Skelton’s Holy Joe Smoke was a course and distance winner in December but disappointed at Newbury later in the month, finishing a well beaten 5th.
Anthony Honeyball’s Dreaming Blue, who ran a fine second here to a classy individual at the beginning of February, looks the answer. The going should be better, as he got bogged down in the mud and was only caught in the last 100 yards in that race after winning on good/soft at Ludlow in December.
Sandown Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Belliano
2.25 Spirits Bay
3.00. Supreme Malinas
3.35. Dreaming Blue
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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