Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
There is something for everyone this week with the final televised flat meeting of the season from Doncaster that features two Listed races and the Class 2 November Handicap where Grey Cuban will try and carry top weight to victory.
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There are two jumps meetings to savour, including three from Aintree, two Class 2s, and a Class 3, with the Grand Sefton being the highlight of the day.
The other jumps card is at Wincanton, which has become something of a Paul Nicholls’s benevolent meeting over the last few years, and he has a strong team to contest the four televised races once again. There are three Class 1s and a Class 2 on offer, the highlight of which is the Badger beers Handicap.
So there are ten races once again this week, and I have looked through to find the value amongst them, and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
12.55 Aintree. Impose Toi
1.30 Aintree. Strackan
2.40 Aintree. White Rhino
3.30 Wincanton. Gustavian
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
Beginning at Aintree with the 12.55, the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, this Class 2 race is run over 3 miles and 1/2 furlong. Top weight is Nicky Henderson’s Impose Toi, who won first time out at Newbury last November. He was last seen running second in a Listed race at Punchestown last May. The only thing to hold him back is his weight.
Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire won a Class 2 at Perth in September. This is tougher.
Sam Thomas’s Katate Dori had a great season last time winning on three occasions, including a Grade 3 at Kempton in February, and he can go close.
Mel Rowley’s Kyntara is a past course and distance winner, but disappointed last term, finishing the season by being pulled up at the festival.
The Russell and Scudamore entry Idem didn’t jump well at Cheltenham in March. These fences are tricky, but he ran a good second at Hexham last month. So, he may be placed.
But I take Henderson’s Impose Toi to impose his authority here.
The 1.30 is the Watch On Racing TV Novices Limited Handicap Chase. It is a Class 3 race run over 3m, 1f. The current bookmaker’s choice is Ben Pauling’s Champagne Twist, who drops back in class after disappointing in Class 2 races.
Dan Skelton’s Hidden History won a Class 3 race at Uttoxeter last March. He is off a good mark here.
Andy Amo had a good season for Rebecca Curtis last term, winning twice at Bangor and Uttoxeter. He can go close.
I give Henry Daly’s Strackan a chance here. He won three times last season, including a Class 2 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. His final run at Uttoxeter can be discounted as he made an early mistake and bled from the nose. I would prefer if he had been given a previous run, but Daly will have him spot on for this.
Aintree’s 2.40 is the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase, a Class 2 contest run over 2m 5f, and the horses will jump the Grand National fences. It helps to have had prior runs over this course and these fences.
Last year’s winner, King Turgeon, trained by David Pipe, returns to defend his crown. He went on to win at Cheltenham last December, but was pulled up in his final two runs of last season, and he has 17 lbs more to carry than last year.
Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s Johnnywho has top weight. He ran consistently well last season, being placed in several top-class novice chases. However, his weight appears to be a problem against these top handicappers.
Sam Thomas’s Our Power has been a past winner of graded races and was a consistent performer last season, being placed on all four outings, but he may find this distance a little too sharp.
Nicky Henderson runs Excello, and this 6-year-old will be looking to improve this season, but he usually finds one or two too good.
If Not For Dylan can spring a surprise for trainers Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore. He ran third over the Mildmay course here in October and won a Class 3 at Newcastle last season.
But I prefer Greenall & Guerriero’s White Rhino, who won at Ayr and Haydock last November and December. He then unseated his rider at Kempton on Boxing Day and was pulled up in March at Doncaster. He is reported to have summered well, and providing he takes to these fences, looks the one to be on.
Finally, I move to the West Country for the final leg, the 3.30 at Wincanton, the 64th Badger Beers Handicap Chase. This is a Class 1 Grade 3 Premier Handicap run over 3m 1f. It has the longest sponsorship of any UK race, and Badger Beers are to be congratulated for their continued support.
Paul Nicholls’s record at this course is second to none. He has won this particular race 11 times. His entry this year is the 10-year-old Threeunderthrufive, who was pulled up in last season’s Grand National and suffered the same fate at Sandown later in April. His age and weight make this a tough ask for Nicholls’s 12th winner of this race.
Mickey Bowen’s Art Of Diplomacy has run up a five-timer this season and would have made it six if he hadn’t fallen at the last when clear at Chepstow last month. Another bold run is expected.
Joe Tizzard’s Scarface ran consistently well all last season and finally got his head in front in his final race at Newton Abbot in April.
My preference is for the bottom weight Anthony Honeyball’s Gustavian, who ran a fine second on his penultimate race last season at Exeter in February. He then probably went out too quickly at Newbury on March 1st. A bold challenge is expected here off a low weight.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
12.55 Aintree. Impose Toi
1.30 Aintree. Strackan
2.40 Aintree. White Rhino
3.30 Wincanton. Gustavian
Bet this lucky 15 on Bet365
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