Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
ITV are providing us with a mixture of codes this Sunday as they produce the postponed meetings that should have been shown on Saturday but have been moved forward 24 hours due to Prince Phillip’s funeral.
Newbury has its first big flat meeting of the year and it features big Oaks and Derby Trials with the Fred Darling and Greenham Stakes. Watch out for Richard Hannon’s pair – Happy Romance and Chindit.
Meanwhile up in Scotland, Ayr welcomes back its big meeting of the year, featuring the Scottish Grand National, which had to be cancelled last season due to Covid regulations. It will be great to see Nicky Richards’s Takingrisks back to defend the crown he won back in 2019.
Ayr has provided a great backup card which includes the Scottish Champion Hurdle and I have looked through the runners to try and find some value and have set out my thoughts below to produce this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Ayr. Pilbara
2.25 Ayr. Calico
3.35 Ayr. Sam’s Adventure
3.20 Newbury. History Writer
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Ayr with the 1.50, the CPMS Novices Champion Chase run over 3 miles. Some of the UK’s top novice chasers have turned up for this contest and Fergal O’Brien’s Hurricane Harvey heads the weights. After winning a lowly contest at Uttoxeter in October, he went on to run in Graded races with some success. He won at Doncaster in December but then was said to have lost his confidence after an early mistake at Ascot in January when he was pulled up. I am sure his trainer has worked on this but that factor and top weight mean he is best watched despite dropping down in class.
Marown from Nicky Richards’s yard has been very consistent this season having never been out of the frame in his six runs. He loves Ayr and won here three times in 2020. His latest victory was at Wetherby last month over this distance but he steps up in class here.
Five Star Getaway has won his last three for trainer Christian Williams but he is stepping up markedly in trip here.
Peter Bowen’s Mac Tottie gained a fine victory last time at Newbury and holds a fine chance here. He should make the frame. But there is an Irish raider at the bottom of the handicap, Emmet Mullins’s Pilbara who won a couple of times last July since then he was placed at Listowel and Galway and comes here fresh having not run since October.
At 2.25, we have the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle, a 2-mile contest. The favourite here is Neil Mulholland’s Milkwood who ran fine third at Cheltenham last month and reproduction of that form would see him go very close.
Paul Nicholls has a strong hand here with Diego Du Charmil and Thyme White. The former runs with a penalty and looks high enough in the handicap anyway. Thyme White is a different matter. He is a speedster who ran freely at Cheltenham and 2m is his optimum distance, so he will be suited here and may make the frame.
Alan King is talking down the chances of Scarlet Dragon claiming he is in the grip of the handicapper and his latest poor run would seem to confirm that, but I think he is better than that and may take a place.
Ann Hamilton runs Tommy’s Oscar who won at Kelso last month. That was his fifth win in what has been a very busy season. He has moved up in class as the year has progressed but he may find this too hot for him.
I like the look of Dan Skelton’s Calico who won the first time out at Ludlow in January. He then ran a fine second beaten only three-quarters of a length in a Grade2 at Kempton in February before winning easily in a prep race for this at Warwick last month. He has learnt much in his short jumping career and can take this for the Skeltons.
The highlight of the meeting- the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase is run at 3.35. This 4-mile contest was won in 2019 by Nicky Richards’s Takingrisks and the trainer has Chapel Stile and Chidswell in the lineup. While I do not foresee either as winners, the latter may run into a place at a nice price.
Lake View Lad trained by NW Alexander didn’t get very far in last week’s Aintree National falling at the first and with top weight to carry here means his chances are somewhat reduced.
Vintage Clouds won at Cheltenham last month for trainer Sue Smith and he is making his fourth attempt to win this having failed on the previous three occasions but he looks too high in the weights.
Paul Nicholls runs Soldier Of Love who will want good going. His four wins earlier in the campaign were on that sort of surface. He was pulled up at Cheltenham last month with Nicholls giving the excuse the soft going was unsuitable. A lot of Scottish hopes will rest on Harriet Graham’s Aye Right who has run well in some top-class contests this season but he is too high in the weights for me.
I have a preference for Brian Ellison’s Sam’s Adventure who comes here after a 50-day break, which means he has not had to suffer the rigours of Cheltenham or Aintree. He won the Eider Chase in February and can follow up that fine victory by taking this with Chidswell e/w as a big outsider.
Moving to the flat at Newbury for the final leg of the Lucky Fifteen, we have the Mansionbet Spring Cup Handicap at 3.20.
Roger Varian’s Troll Peninsula looks likely to go off favourite after having won on Kempton’s A/W last month- his first run of the season. He is very lightly raced- this is only his fourth run and I wonder if he has the experience for hustle and bustle of a big handicap.
William Haggas’s Johan is having his first run of the season after having a good 2020, which included a win over this course and distance but he looks a little high in the weights.
Danyah ran well in the Lincoln for trainer Owen Burrows and had several of these behind him that day. He may confirm most of those placings and make the frame here but one he had behind him that day who ran into all sorts of trouble was David Menuisier’s History Writer. He has been running in Group company and starting this season in handicap contests should not be ignored.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Ayr. Pilbara
2.25 Ayr. Calico
3.35 Ayr. Sam’s Adventure
3.20 Newbury. History Writer
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365