Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
Two excellent pre-Christmas meetings this Saturday are being televised by ITV Racing, and we can expect plenty of ho-ho-ho from the presenters. The two cards being covered are from Aintree, with three races, and Sandown, with no fewer than five.
The Merseyside track features two Class 2 handicaps and the Class 1 Becher Chase, which is run over the Grand National course, ensuring a thrilling spectacle.
Meanwhile, at Sandown, we have three Class 2 handicaps and two Grade 1 Chases where we can expect to see L’Eau Du Sud in the Henry VIii Novices Chase and the wonderful Jonbon going for his second Tingle Creek. But I have looked to the handicaps to try and find some value, and here are my thoughts and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.07 Aintree. Chianti Classico
1.32 Aintree. Springwell Bay
2.25 Sandown. Knickerbockerglory
3.35 Sandown. Certainly Red
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning with the 1.32 at Aintree, the BoyleSports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap Chase, this is a Class 2 contest run over 2m 4f on the Mildmay course. The top weight here is Jonjo O’Neill’s Springwell Bay, who unseated over this course and distance at the end of last season, but he came out this term and won a Listed Novice Chase at Chepstow in October. He then ran a good third at Cheltenham over 3 miles last month. He drops back in trip here.
Donald McCain’s Richmond Lake won this race last year but his form fell off a cliff after that victory. On his first run this season in November, he ran a fair 4th here over the National fences, but he tired visibly in the final furlong.
Dan Skelton has two entries, Salamanca Bay and Real Stone, and the latter holds the most interest for the in-form trainer. He ran consistently well last season, winning just once at Haydock last November before inexplicably falling over the easy fences at Hereford in March. These fences are stiffer.
Evan Williams’s Dr T J Eckleberg won at Haydock last month after running third at Newton Abbot the previous month but he is upped in trip here yet may be placed. I prefer Springwell Bay.
The BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase is at 2.07, a Grade 3 run over 3m 2f on the Grand National course. David Pipe’s King Turgeon returns to the course where he won the Grand Sefton just over a month ago. He had several horses he met here behind him that day. However, the extra 5 furlongs will make a difference.
Another who has won over these fences and is moving up in trip is Stuart Edmunds, Arizona Cardinal, who won the 2m 5f Topham Chase last April. He was pulled up on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow in October but can be placed.
Jonjo O’Neill’s stayer Iron Bridge ran third at Carlisle last month in a prep run for this, and if it becomes a slog through the mud, he will be thereabouts at the finish.
Tom Lacey’s Cruz Control won over the Mildmay fences last April but was disappointed when running over hurdles here at Aintree in October.
Down at the bottom of the handicap is Greenall & Guerriero’s Gaboriot, who was third in the Grand Sefton last month and is sure to go well off his low weight now he has had sight of these unique fences.
But my idea of the winner is from the other end of the handicap, Kim Bailey’s Chianti Classico, who was victorious at the Cheltenham Festival in March and was impressive when winning a Grade 3 at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance in early November. Despite being top weight, he has the class to impress again.
Moving south to Sandown and the 2.25 is the Betfair Plays Different Handicap Hurdle, a Class 2 race run over 2 miles. The current favourite is Paul Nicholls unbeaten Kabral Du Mathan, who got his season off to a bang with an easy victory at Kempton last month after two wins last term. He will take all the beating.
Harry Fry’s Altobelli reverts to handicaps after running in Graded races last season without success. He has something to prove. Top weight is Kerry Lee’s Nemean Lion, who won a Grade 2 at Wincanton last February but then found the company far too hot when running in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Aintree Hurdle in April. From those Grade 1 heights, this seems pretty mean fare, but this is a prep run for the rest of the season, and he is probably best watched.
Nicky Henderson’s Willmount was unbeaten until being pulled-up at Newbury last December. He has not been seen these past 12 months and is another best watched.
I take a chance with a trainer who is in top form, Dan Skelton, who runs Knickerbockerglory who in reality should not live with some of these top class hurdlers, but Skelton has been waiting for an opportunity for this horse who has won first time out in the last two seasons and can make it three here.
The Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase is at 3.35. This Class 2 Chase is run over 3 m 4 1/2f. Seamus Mullins’s Tommie Beau is top weight, and he won three times in May and June. On his latest run last month in the Cross-Country at Cheltenham he ran out with the race at his mercy but his weight could be a problem here.
Lydia Richard’s Certainly Red was a winner here at Sandown last month after having run a good second at Chepstow. He is expected to go well again.
Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango was third at Cheltenham in March in an amateur riders event and then was pulled up in the Scottish National at Ayr, but he is fancied in some quarters.
Paul Nicholls’s Broken Halo is another who was pulled up in the Scottish National but he had previously won at Taunton in a Class 3. More is required here.
I like another runner from the Scottish National – one who actually finished. That horse is Dan Skelton’s Ballygrifincottage, who was 7th at Ayr just 9 lengths behind the winner. He has had two fair runs this season at Uttoxeter and Chepstow, finishing 3rd and 4th, respectively. Then he didn’t get far at Cheltenham last month, falling at the fourth fence. He will be fit for this, and I expect him to put up a bold show, but I favour Certainly Red.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.07 Aintree. Chianti Classico
1.32 Aintree. Springwell Bay
2.25 Sandown. Knickerbockerglory
3.35 Sandown. Certainly Red
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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