Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It is Ayr’s big meeting of the season with three great day’s racing culminating in the Gold Cup on Saturday and ITV are there to cover no fewer than five races. Besides the Gold Cup itself, there is the Silver Cup which is a consolation race for those horses that didn’t make the cut for the main feature, a Group race, a Listed race and a further handicap so plenty to get our teeth into there.
To back up the main picture but by no means a ‘B’ feature, there are four races being shown from Newbury’s Autumn Meeting with a Group 2, two Group 3’s and as Jason Weaver would say a ‘cracking’ handicap.
So with nine excellent races on offer this week, I have chosen four top grade handicaps to try and find some decent priced winners for this week’s Lucky Fifteen and here are my thoughts for Saturday’s bet.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
3.25 Newbury. Mo’assess
2.30 Ayr. Soldier’s Minute
3.40 Ayr. Commanche Falls
4.15 Ayr. Shelir
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Newbury with the 3.25 the Dubai Duty Free Handicap run over 10 furlongs where Owen Burrows has one of the top weights with Dawaam who comes here looking for his first win on turf. In his latest run, he could manage only third at Yarmouth where he could find no extra over the last 100 yds.
The other top weight is the Crisford’s King Leonidas who is having his first outing for 15 months. He was considered good enough to run in a Group race at Royal Ascot after winning at Newmarket 11 days earlier but was well beaten 7 lengths behind the winner over 7f. Whether he will get three extra furlongs or carry top weight remains to be seen but I think he is best watched.
William Haggas is having a great season and runs Aramaic here after two fine victories at York and Musselburgh. He is sure to go well but steps up a notch here.
King Of Clubs won at this level for trainer Hughie Morrison at Sandown last month and should put up a good performance. But I will side with another 3-year-old, Mo’assess, from the very much in form stable of Saeed Bin Suroor. His horse won twice in August on the all-weather at Kempton after finishing second on turf in June and should handle the conditions well enough to take this.
Moving North of the border to Scotland for the big meeting at Ayr, I will start with the 2.30, the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap, a 6-furlong sprint. Clive Cox is notorious for his sprinters and he has one of the top weights here with Royal Scimitar who was a fine second at Ascot two weeks ago, but he may have too much weight.
Bickerstaffe from Kevin Burke’s yard won at Ascot in July but was then well beaten at Goodwood later in the month. Last year’s winner of this race Magical Spirit trained by Kevin Ryan has not shown great form this season but is drawn in the same berth he won from last year, 4, and low numbers are favoured here.
Another Ryan horse with a good chance is Rathbone who ran second to the Gold Cup favourite at Newmarket in August. He has since run poorly at Thirsk but if replicating the Newmarket form, he could go close.
But I will go for a locally trained horse, Keith Dalgleish’s Soldier’s Minute who has been lightly raced this year with this contest in mind. He faded at Goodwood last time but he didn’t really handle the course and prior to that he was beaten by nothing less than the Sprint Cup winner! He has a very favourable draw, 6, and if able to take advantage of that, he can go in at a nice price.
At 3.40 it is the big race of the day the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup, again a 6-furlong sprint. David O’Meara’s Summerghand has lumps of weight to carry here after a couple of victories at Newmarket but it would be some feat for him to carry 10st 1lbs win this.
Ed Walker’s Great Ambassador is the bookies favourite after a couple of victories, including a Listed race at York earlier this month.
Another who has won his last two races is Commanche Falls from Michael Dods’s yard, his latest win at Goodwood where he had several of the adversaries he will meet here behind him was particularly gratifying for his trainer. Added to this that during his fine season he has also won over this course and distance in April.
Richard Fahey’s Mr Lupton was second in this last year and is a previous Group winner. He won in September 2018 and 2020, so should not be overlooked.
Down at the bottom of the handicap, Ed Walker has another contender with Popmaster who beat a good field easily at Ascot last time but he has a 5lb penalty for that victory. However, he may be placed at a decent price, but I side with Commanche Falls.
Finally, at 4.15, it is the Virgin Bet Handicap over a mile and this looks like a very even contest. Richard Fahey’s Hong Kong Harry is the current favourite. He is a dual course winner over 7f and should have no trouble getting the extra furlong but is stepping up in class here.
Tim Easterby’s Garden Oasis won here at Ayr in June and has won three times since. He is sure to go very close.
Another Easterby horse who has had a fine season is Cruyff Turn with four victories the latest of which was at York last month. He will give his stablemate a run for his money.
Mark Johnston runs Marie’s Diamond who won at Ayr in July and he has a couple of Listed races on his CV but may have too much weight here.
I like the look of David O’Meara’s Shelir who has been knocking on the door in some top-class contests and deserves to get his head in front. He was a Listed race winner as a 3-year-old and was unlucky last time at Pontefract when beaten just a neck.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
3.25 Newbury. Mo’assess
2.30 Ayr. Soldier’s Minute
3.40 Ayr. Commanche Falls
4.15 Ayr. Shelir
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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