Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
ITV is televising three meetings this Saturday with four races from Newmarket, two from Haydock and one from the Curragh. Unfortunately, the whole programme is dominated by 2-year-old contests which do not offer much in the way of value for a Lucky Fifteen.
The Newmarket card has the Cambridgeshire to look forward to but I am afraid this is only backed up by three 2-year-old races which are very difficult to judge. Over the last four years these three races, twelve in all, have been won by trainer Aidan O’Brien on no fewer than seven occasions with his winner’s SP’s including 25/1, 16/1, 10/1, 8/1 and 6/1 so these prices show how unpredictable these races are. Added to this the one race being televised from the Curragh is yet another 2-year-old contest which at the time of writing has 13 declarations 3 of which are O’Brien’s.
I’m afraid these sort of trials do very little for me as a betting medium so along with the Cambridgeshire I have chosen three races from Haydock, one of which is not being televised, for this week’s Lucky Fifteen where hopefully we can find some value for this week’s bet.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
- 3.35 Newmarket. Sinjaari
- 2.05 Haydock. Cardsharp
- 2.40 Haydock. Count d’Orsay
- 3.10 Haydock. Commanche Falls
Beginning with the big race of the day at Newmarket the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap at 3.35 where we have Roger Charlton’s Tempus currently installed as favourite. The colt is unbeaten in two races this year, the latest a fine victory at Ascot three weeks ago and previously he was awarded the race in the Newbury steward’s room after being hampered in the final 100yds, but he has a 4lb penalty for those wins and that may be too much for him. Bell Rock from Andrew Balding’s yard is fancied as he has won twice in his career at HQ so he must be well suited by the course, he was upped in distance last time at Goodwood but drops back to 9f but he may be run off his feet here. Sir Busker won twice in June and has since notched three runner-up spots. His trainer, William Knight has given him a month’s break in readiness for this but it is debatable whether he can last a furlong further than he is used to. William Haggas has had a great season to date and Montatham has been one of his stars but he was beaten last week when a short priced favourite and perhaps the handicapper has his measure. Mick Channon’s Certain Lad has top weight and that is justified as he won a Group race over this distance at York last time but he had his colours lowered by Sinjaari at the same course in July and Haggas has kept his gelding at home in readiness for this since that victory, he looks the winner to me. A big priced outsider is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubai Mirage who won at Haydock in August, he may well make the frame.
The 2.05 at Haydock is the Visit racingtv.com Handicap on the one mile left hand course. Top weight is Charlie Appleby’s Key Victory who won at Meydan in January then ran again there in February finishing fifth, this is his first run since then and if he brings his best form here he should go close. Ed Dunlop’s Alternative Fact was a course and distance winner here in July but he ran very poorly at Goodwood last time and is best watched. Mick Channon doesn’t have many runners at the North West track so his entry of Milltown Star should be noted but on previous form he has not shown the ability for this contest plus he has never won over a mile. Danyah has proved a consistent sort for Owen Burrows but he is stepping up in class here. One who certainly isn’t stepping up class is Mark Johnson’s Cardsharp who has been highly tried during the season without success. This race could well be his best opportunity of the year after he was squeezed out last time at Sandown, prior to that he ran a good third in a big Goodwood handicap. He has been tried over a mile previously on the all-weather finishing fourth so the distance should not be a problem and he can open his account for the season.
The Join Racing TV Now Handicap, a 5f sprint, is at 2.40 with Tim Easterby‘s Count d’Orsay at the head of the weights. He was a winner last time out over this course and distance and I can see no reason why he should not repeat that success. Behind him in second that day was Ed Walker’s Came From The Dark who will be 2lb better off here but that may not be enough to reverse those placings. Even further back that day were Militia and Copper Knight in sixth and seventh respectively and I cannot see either of them improving on those placings on current form. Dark Shot has found some form on his last three outings for trainer Scott Dixon winning twice and a runner-up spot on those occasions, but he steps up in class here and has a 4lb penalty for his latest victory but he may still grab a place off a low weight however it’s Count d’Orsay for me to run up a quick Haydock double.
One of the most open handicaps of the day but not televised is the 3.10 the Watch On Racing TV Handicap. Top weight here is David Loughnane’s Ghaith who has been finding some success on the all-weather at Wolverhampton however he has not run since March when he ran last of ten in Listed company. Mick Channon’s Indian Creak won at Windsor in August then tried a major step up in class at Ascot but was well beaten, he drops back in class to try to get back to winning ways. Call Me Ginger was backed down to favourite last time at Ayr on the strength of his fine second previously at Doncaster, but things did not go to plan as he dwelt at the start then found himself short of room on a couple of occasions, he will be fit from that run but may not be able to carry this. Michael Dods’s Commanche Falls is making a huge step up in class after his course and distance victory here a fortnight ago but I just feel this young horse can make this step up. He was not disgraced in a Class 2 at Newmarket as a 2-year-old and is 2 from 4 this year, he can take this at a decent price.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
- 3.35 Newmarket. Sinjaari
- 2.05 Haydock. Cardsharp
- 2.40 Haydock. Count d’Orsay
- 3.10 Haydock. Commanche Falls