Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
We have got quite used to the Irish trainers banging in the winners at our big jumping festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree but after the first few weeks of the new jumps season, it is painfully obvious that they are now targeting our Saturday handicaps at ordinary meetings.
The trainer Dr Richard Newland has stated that this will affect the livelihood of many UK trainers and Tom Segal (Pricewise) has written an excellent article on the subject in this week’s Racing Post Weekender. In it, he gives examples of the Irish trainer’s successes already this year with Gavin Cromwell’s three winners at the recent Cheltenham meeting. Then last week, Mouse Morris won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and Cromwell’s Yeah Man was coming to win the big Ascot handicap only to fall at the last.
These trainers are seeing rich pickings across the water and their success will take money away from our trainers leading to them going to the wall. The answer? Well obviously we need an improvement in UK horses and that is easier said than done and I’m sure there are better brains than mine that are worried about this now.
On to this week where Wincanton is the highlight with their biggest meeting of the year, it features the Badger Beer Chase. ITV Racing are covering that and a further four races from the Somerset course.
Backing this up are two races from Aintree which include the Grand Sefton Chase where the National fences are brought into use for the first time this season. Finally, we have the last flat meeting of the year to be televised from Newcastle. This is a card being transferred from Doncaster and the November Handicap is the highlight with two other races being covered.
So ten races in all being shown and I have looked for value across the cards, and here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.45 Aintree. Frero Banbou
1.15 Wincanton. Flagrant Delitiep
2.25 Wincanton. Threeunderthrufive
3.32 Wincanton. Vicki Vale
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
The 2.45 at Aintree is the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Stakes a 2m 5f contest where the horses jump the Grand National fences. The joint top weight here is Nicky Henderson’s Fantastic Lady who was second in the Topham Chase here last April. She goes well fresh but the weight is a worry.
The other top weight is Donald McCain’s Minella Trump who was well beaten in last season’s Grand National. This is a practice run as he heads for that race once again.
There is an Irish raider here, Paul Gilligan’s Born By The Sea, who ran a fine 6th in the Grand National so he will handle these fences his latest run last month was at Galway where he was a well beaten 5th. He may go very close.
Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero run Gesskille who was second in this last year at Auteuil in September. This is tougher.
Stuart Coltherd’s Cooper’s Cross was second in the Ayr Gold Cup in April and he will probably head that way again. He wants further.
Iain Jardine’s Half Shot always seems to find one too good but he may be placed.
Frero Banbou ran consistently well last season for trainer Venetia Williams until disappointing at the Cheltenham Festival but I take him to bounce back here with Born By The Sea the danger.
The first Wincanton race on ITV is the West Country Weekend Conditional Jockeys Handicap Chase a 2m 4f Class 3 contest. Top weight is Tom Lacey’s Dibble Decker who won twice at Huntingdon last season and then finished off by running a poor 5th at Ludlow. He has plenty of weight.
Another Crick trained by Noel Williams won at Warwick in May and is a previous course winner but he has plenty of weight.
Fergal O’Brien’s Volkova looks handy and finished last season running 2nd at Ludlow in April. She can hit the frame again.
Chris Gordon’s Alto Alto has only ever won At Plumpton and in his final race of the season last May. He finished last of six there when going off favourite, avoid.
But course specialist Robert Walford has two in this and they both catch the eye. Ede’iffs Elton is a triple course winner but I think he wants further, whereas Flagrant Delitiep is a course and distance winner. He ran fourth at Plumpton last month so is fit and can go well off bottom weight.
The 2.25 is the big race of the day the 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase a 3m 1f Grade 3 race. Last year’s winner Frodon heads the weights one again with a whopping 12st. I said last year that although he is the class horse in the race, I couldn’t see Paul Nicholls’s 10-year-old carry all that weight to victory. Well, he is a year older and I repeat that same thought! Will I be wrong again?
I feel Nicholls’s other runner has more of a chance here. Threeunderthrufive was highly tried last year finishing a fine fourth in his final race at the Ayr Gold Cup in April. He has the credentials to take this.
Anthony Honeyball has four in this the best of which is probably Sam Brown, although he fell in his final two races of the year, at Punchestown and in the Grand National.
Peter Bowen’s Courtland has been winning some small contests during the summer but this is a big step up in class.
Dan Skelton’s Ashtown Lad won the Becher Chase at Aintree last December but swerved the meeting today to turn up here. He can give the selection the most to think about.
The 3.32 is the Richard Barber Memorial Mares Handicap Hurdle a Class 2 contest run over 2m 5 1/2f. Joe Tizzard’s Ilovethenightlife is top weight and fancied after winning three times last season but was well beaten in her final race at Cheltenham in April. She will return fit and firing here.
Paul Nicholls’s Lime Avenue is the current favourite after winning here over this distance in February. She is sure to go well.
Syd Hosie’s Plenty Of Time won here at the last meeting in October but this is a step up in class.
I will go for Dan Skelton’s Vicki Vale who finished last season by winning at Taunton. She is reported to have summered well and is ready to win again.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.45 Aintree. Frero Banbou
1.15 Wincanton. Flagrant Delitiep
2.25 Wincanton. Threeunderthrufive
3.32 Wincanton. Vicki Vale
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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