Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It is the biggest betting day of the year, with Grand National Day at Aintree, and ITV Racing are concentrating theirwhole programme from Merseyside, covering five races on the day.
There will be a massive amount of airtime dedicated to the build-up, and I’m sure there will be much discussion about the changes to the big race during the last few years.
The major change this year is the reduction in the size of the field from 40 to 34. If these changes continue, the uniqueness of the race will become so diluted, it will become just another Saturday fixture. But we are not there yet, and one of the better aspects of the changes in the class of the entries to the race. This is probably due to the increased prize money (this year the Total Value is £1 million) and the less demanding fences.
The going on Saturday is likely to be heavy, and with that in mind here are my thoughts for the big race and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
1.20 Cuthbert Dibble
2.30 Forward Plan
3.05 Sire Du Berlais
4.00 I Am Maximus/Adamantly Chosen e/w
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning with the 1.20 at Aintree, the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, a Class 1 race run over 3m 1/2f. Paul Nicholls has a couple in this, including top weight Red Risk and Monmiral who won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham and had several of these behind him. However, he has risen in the weights, giving him more to do.
Last year’s winner West Balboa trained by Dan Skelton returns to try and regain his crown. He won here in November but has shown little since.
Willie Mullins’s Fine Margin was pulled up in February at Leopardstown after previously running a fine second at Haydock, a bold run is expected.
Dan Skelton’s Gwennie May Boy has won three from four this season but steps up in class here.
I like Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Cuthbert Dibble, who, after two wins this year, went off as favourite in the Pertemps at Cheltenham, finishing third. He can make amends on a flatter track.
The William Hill Handicap Chase is at 2.30. This Grade 3 contest is run over 3m 1f on the Mildmay course. Ben Pauling’s Twig ran a fine second last month at Cheltenham but he is more suited by better going.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Crebilly was a good second in The Plate at Cheltenham and will be suited by soft going. He is the one to beat.
Eamonn McNamara runs Falco Blitz who has won his last two at Limerick and Thurles and is fancied to go well here but may have to settle for a place.
Dan Skelton’s The King Of Ryhope drops down a grade after running well in better company. He can be in the shake-up.
Tom Lacey’s Cruz Control won heavy at Newcastle last month but steps up in class here.
My preference is for Anthony Honeyball’s Forward Plan, a dual winner this season, latterly at Kempton in February in a Grade 3. He is a horse who doesn’t know when he is beaten and always gives his all, as was shown by his victory at Doncaster in December.
The 3.05 is the Grade 1 JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle a 3m 1/2f contest. The Irish trainers have a strong hand here, including the current favourite Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter, who comes here after being defeated at Cheltenham. He will be looking to gain recompense for that race.
It was said Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo ran flat in that Cheltenham race, and the trainer will be hoping for more from him here. He can be placed.
Henry de Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake won easily at Navan last time on heavy ground and tried his luck in Group 1 company for the first time.
Olly Murphy’s Strong Leader has disappointed this time after a fine novice season. He was only beaten just over a length at the Festival, but this looks tougher.
Nicky Henderson sends Champ here and after the troubles the stable has had I hope he runs well but he is not up to this class now.
I go for the two-time winner to make it a hat-trick of wins: Sire Du Berlais, trained by Gordon Elliott. He seems to save himself for Aintree and would be a popular winner of this prestigious race once again.
So I come to the big race of the day the Randox Grand National Handicap Chase off at 4.00. It is a Class 1 contest and is run over a marathon distance of 4m 2 1/2f, and 30 fences.
The current favourite is last year’s winner Corach Rambler trained by Lucinda Russell. He ran really well last time in the Cheltenham Gold Cup finishing third but very tired. He has won on heavy but prefers good/soft and has a stone more to carry than last year. Added to that how much did the Cheltenham race take out of him?
Christian Williams’s Kitty’s Light sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap. He has won several long distance chases but the going is against him.
Dan Skelton has had a great season and runs Galia Des Liteaux who goes well on heavy and won a Listed Chase in November. He dodged Cheltenham to come here and has sound claims for a place.
There is a very strong Irish contingent and they make up the bulk of the entries with all the top trainers represented.
Gavin Cromwell’s Vanillier was second last year. He has 5lbs more this time around and his form this season is nothing to write home about.
Martin Brassil has trained Panda Boy for this race all season but the going may be an issue.
Gordon Elliott’s Delta Work was fit and ready for the Cross Country at Cheltenham. He will be suited by the going and has the ability to be there in the shake-up.
Emmet Mullins’s Noble Yeats won this in 2022, but he has 15 lbs more on his back this time. He is a class act, but that weight is a worry.
So we come to the heavyweight of Irish racing and I expect Willie Mullins to send out the winner. He has several in the field capable of winning, but I think his best chance rests with I Am Maximus. He won the Irish Grand National last year and was an easy winner at Fairyhouse in February in preparation for this. The ground won’t be a problem, so what’s not to like – well, some say he is a dodgy jumper, but these fences are not half as formidable as they used to be, so he is my selection.
As a big-priced outsider, another Mullins horse can make the frame: Adamantly Chosen, who won on soft at Down Royal last month. He looks a tasty each-way bet.
Aintree Lucky Fifteen
1.20 Cuthbert Dibble
2.30 Forward Plan
3.05 Sire Du Berlais
4.00 I Am Maximus/Adamantly Chosen e/w
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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