Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
It’s the biggest betting Saturday of the year and ITV are devoting their whole programme to the Aintree meeting and the Grand National itself. They are covering the big race along with four others, all the races are Class 1’s.
The first three televised races are hurdle contests one of which is a Grade 1 the Liverpool Hurdle. This is backed up with a race for Novices and a Handicap.
The other race on TV is a Handicap Chase over the Mildmay fences before the Grand National itself at 5.15. So a very exciting afternoon in prospect and the ITV coverage is getting better year on year with some very knowledgeable pundits giving their thoughts to the nation.
So good luck everyone and here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Aintree Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.25 West Balboa
3.00 Irish Point
4.15 Eldorado Allen
5.15 Corach Rambler / Velvet Elvis
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
On a day of big fields at Aintree I will start with the 2.25 the Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle run over three miles and a half a furlong with a field of 22 runners. Top weight and the bookies’ favourite is A J Martin’s Good Time Jonny who didn’t start this season too well being pulled up on his first start but he has improved since then and won the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival last month beating several he meets here. However, he has 10lbs more than when winning that day.
Nicky Henderson’s Mill Green was third that day, three and a half lengths behind, but he is 9lbs better off here.
Jonjo O’Neill’s An Tailliur was sixth in that race and is another better off at the weights.
Ian Williams’s Party Business struggled to carry top weight at Haydock in February but may go better here under less weight.
But my fancy is the winner of the Lanzarote at Kempton in January, West Balboa trained by Dan Skelton, he travelled strongly that day made a mistake at the last was headed and rallied to get home by a short head. That is the sort of bravery that wins races.
As a big outsider, you could do a lot worse than Henry Daly’s Moon Hunter who has won twice this season. He can be placed at a nice price.
The Turners Mersey Novices Hurdle is at 3.00, a 2m 4f contest with another big field of fifteen. The favourite here is Paul Nicholls’s Hermes Allen who was a triple winner earlier in the season but then disappointed in the Ballymore at the Festival finishing only sixth after going off favourite.
Gordon Elliott’s Irish Point dodged Cheltenham and instead went to Naas where he won comfortably.
Another who swerved the Festival is Jonjo O’Neill’s Springwell Bay who has won three times this season and he can feature in the finish.
At the bottom of the handicap is Jamie Snowden’s You Wear It Well who won the Mares Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and she can go well against geldings.
An outsider I like here is Tom Lacey’s Blow Your Wad who won at Newbury last month, he can be placed at a big price. But it’s Elliott’s Irish Point for me.
At 4.15 we have another 15 runners in the William Hill Handicap Chase a 3m 1f contest over The Mildmay Fences. Joe Tizzard’s Eldorado Allen has top weight here. He last ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup finishing last of the finishers. I think this drop back to handicap company can see him get off the mark for the season.
Sam England’s Kinondo Kwetu had a run of five wins last summer but on his return to action at Ascot in February, he was last of three beaten over 60 lengths.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Beauport started the season well but has disappointed since, including last time in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
Jamie Moore’s Nassalam has been backed here but he also disappointed at Cheltenham in the Ultima.
An outsider to keep your eye on could be Venetia Williams’s Kapga De Lily who ran a fair third at Exeter in February on her last outing.
The big race, the Randox Grand National Handicap Chase is at 5.15, the distance is now 4m 2+1/2 f (used to be 4m 4f). Ted Walsh’s Any Second Now was third in 2021, then second last year, can he go one better this year? I somehow doubt it carrying 11st 12lbs.
Last year’s winner Emmett Mullin’s Noble Yeats has 15lbs more to carry than last time which may anchor him.
Gordon Elliott’s Delta Work won the Cross Country at Cheltenham but he meets better horses here and has plenty of weight.
Willie Mullins’s best chance is probably with Gaillardia Du Mesnil who won the National Hunt Chase at the Festival last month. But this race may come a bit soon after those exertions.
Le Milos can run a big race for Dan Skelton. He won the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last November and has been lightly raced since with just a prep run at Kelso last month, he can go close.
Lucinda Russell has a major chance with Corach Rambler who won the Ultima at the Festival last month and if that race has not taken it out of him he looks a likely winner to me.
As to outsiders with chances of a place where bookies pay six or more places, I like Henry Daly’s Fortescue who was fourth in the Becher Chase in December and fell four out in this last year. That fall was as much as tiredness of the amateur jockey as tiredness of the horse.
But my really fancied outsider who I think has a great chance at a big price is Thomas Gibney’s Velvet Elvis who won at Fairyhouse in February then ran second to Any Second Now at Navan in March but he’s a whopping 17lbs better off here.
So there we are my head says Corach Rambler and my heart says Velvet Elvis. You pays your money and takes your chance!
Aintree Saturday Lucky Fifteen
2.25 West Balboa
3.00 Irish Point
4.15 Eldorado Allen
5.15 Corach Rambler / Velvet Elvis
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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