Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
The television cameras are at three different courses this week and from all corners of the country. From the north, there is a meeting at Haydock where the highlight of the three televised races looks to be the Peter Marsh Chase which has been won by Sue Smith or Venetia Williams on the last four occasions and I’m sure they will be all out to win it again.
There are four races from Ascot where their highlight should be the Clarence House Chase but with just three runners, albeit classy ones, it looks a disappointing affair.
There is also a contest being shown from Taunton which looks like a charity outing for Paul Nicholls’s Frodon and that makes it eight races in total. So I’ve looked through these for value and here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.30 Haydock. Toothless
2.40 Haydock. Bristol de Mai
1.50 Ascot. Too Friendly
3.00 Ascot. Riders Onthe Storm
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
I will begin at Haydock Park with the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices Hurdle at 1.30 which is run at just under 2 miles. This has attracted a field of top-class novices with Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire likely to go off the favourite. He is unbeaten this season with two victories both at Market Rasen. This is much, much tougher.
Evan Williams’s Doyen Star won a modest novice hurdle at Chepstow in November on his only start under rules and he is another who will find this tougher.
I was very impressed with Dan Skelton’s Pembroke last time at Ludlow where he won by 16 lengths. He looks like he may take all the beating.
But there are a couple who can put it to Pembroke. Firstly, Sandy Thomson’s War Soldier who won cleverly at Haydock last time and my preference Paul Nicholls’s Toothless who romped home by 35 lengths against a classy field at Fakenham on New Year’s Day. He can go on from that victory to better things.
Haydock’s big race of the day is at 2.40 the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase run over 3m 1 and a bit furlongs. Nigel Twiston-Davies sends his old warrior Bristol de Mai back to his favourite track to do battle once again. He has won here no fewer than six times the last time was in February when he won by default.
The going at Haydock in January can be bottomless and he can jump this lot ragged even as a 12-year-old. Sandy Thomson’s Empire Steel is his nearest competitor in the handicap and he has 11 lbs less to carry than Bristol de Mai. He won a Class 2 handicap at Kelso last February and was a poor 7th on his only outing this season at Aintree last month.
The horse that was third in that Aintree race was Stuart Coltherd’s Cooper’s Cross. He then ran a poor second at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day. The 26 lbs he gets from the top weight will not be enough.
Blaklion won here at Haydock twice in December 2021 for trainer Dan Skelton but has shown little since then. If he can get some of that form back, he could give Bristol de Mai a race.
Venetia Williams has won the last two runnings of this race and her hopes lie with Fontaine Collonges. He won here in November and can go well. He could be the one to chase the selection home.
Moving south to Ascot at 1.50 it is the Royal Ascot Racing Club Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle a 2m 3f contest. Top weight and favourite is Henry Daly’s Blenkinsop who has won his last four. He romped home at Newbury on New Year’s Eve but I fear with his weight he could get bogged down in the Ascot mud.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Lock’s Corner has won his last two but this is a step up in class. Similarly with Gary Moore’s Yorksea who won at Fontwell on Boxing Day. However, he and the second were 16 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He can be placed here.
Paul Nicholls’s Ivaldi made a mistake at the first then fell at the second at Kempton last month. Unless his jumping has improved considerably, he is not one to be trusted.
The one I like is Dan Skelton’s Too Friendly who has run second on his last two outings latterly at Cheltenham in December. He was well clear of the third horse and can go one better and take this.
The bet365 Handicap Chase is at 3.00 and run over 2m 5f, where Nicky Henderson’s Dusart is saddled with top weight. This classy individual won three times last season but disappointed in his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham in December where he laboured to finish sixth when going off favourite. I think he is best watched here.
I thought James Snowden’s Ga Law win at Cheltenham in November was excellent but he is a top-of-the-ground horse and may not be suited by the conditions underfoot.
Ben Pauling’s Your Darling won here at Ascot in November then after rising 10lbs in the weights was beaten into fifth at Kempton last month.
Richard Hobson’s Riders Onthe Storm ran a fabulous race to win a Grade2 at Aintree in October but on his return to the same course in early December he jumped very poorly and finished down the field. If he has recovered from that error-strewn, run he can go close in this and he is the selection.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.30 Haydock. Toothless
2.40 Haydock. Bristol de Mai
1.50 Ascot. Too Friendly
3.00 Ascot. Riders Onthe Storm
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Related Reading