Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.
We are back to the jumping game on ITV this week with two meetings and eight races being televised. There are three races being shown from Newbury, including a Veterans Chase for conditional jockeys but the main meeting of the day is Ayr’s big National Hunt day of the year featuring the Scottish Grand National.
This card also features the Scottish equivalent of the Champion Novices Chase and the Champion Hurdle and the meeting is always targeted by some very astute trainers, including several Irish raiders.
I have trawled through both cards looking for value and here are my thoughts for this week’s Lucky Fifteen.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Ayr. Doyen Breed
2.25 Ayr. Onemorefortheroad
3.35 Ayr. History Of Fashion
2.45 Newbury. Sabrina
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
Beginning at Ayr with the 1.50 the CPMS Novices Champion Handicap Chase, a 3m contest where the top weight and favourite is Nicky Henderson’s Dusart. He is a winner of two races this year at Leicester and Exeter but was beaten 14 lengths at the Cheltenham Festival. I feel this race may have come rather soon after those exertions.
Ruth Jefferson’s Sounds Russian has run up a hat-trick in lower grade contests but will find this Cls2 a whole lot tougher.
Lord Accord has had a great season to date for trainer Neil Mulholland but he didn’t jump with any fluency last time at Doncaster when last of three. He looks untrustworthy.
Dan Skelton’s Sail Away was second behind Dusart at Leicester in January when he was well beaten. He is 12lbs better off here and may be placed.
But I like Sandy Thomson’s Doyen Breed who has run consistently well all season. His last two runners up spots have come in Grade 2 races and that form alone would see him run out the winner here.
At 2.25 it is the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle which is run over 2 miles but there the similarity to its Cheltenham counterpart ends. This race is a handicap albeit a Grade2 one.
Last year’s winner Milkwood trained by Neil Mulholland returns to try and repeat that victory but has 4lbs more to carry this time around and I’m concerned he has not been seen on a racecourse since being well beaten at Uttoxeter in October.
Dan Skelton’s West Cork did remarkably well to finish fourth in the County Hurdle at the Festival but this may come rather soon after that hard race.
Donald McCain’s Barrichello has won four from five this season and is highly fancied but this is a big step up in class for the gelding, but he may well hit the frame.
The Irish hope is John McConnell’s Anna Bunina who was second this last year. Her best run this season was last time out at Musselburgh in February and she may be placed again.
My preference is for Onemorefortheroad trained by Neil King who won three races at the beginning of the season, one of which was a Listed contest. Since then he has run with credit in Graded races at Ascot and Sandown and appears to have dodged Cheltenham for this.
The big betting race of the day is the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at 3.35 run over 4 miles. Christian Williams seems to have targeted this race and has a couple of the shortest-priced runners with Kitty’s Light and Win My Wings.
Kitty’s Light has been runner-up three times this season but has been unable to taste victory. His best run was last time out in February at Kempton but he looks high enough in the weights to me.
As to Win My Wings, she looks the better of the pair having won her last two latterly the Eider Chase at Newcastle where she landed a gamble but she has an 8lbs rise for that win.
Dan Skelton’s Ashtown Lad is fancied in some quarters after running consistently all season in Cls1 Novice Chases but the distance may be a problem for him.
Another novice with a good chance is Alan King’s, Major Dundee. The trainer states this is a big step up for him but he is hoping he’ll run well, he may be placed.
Iain Jardine must be pleased with the weight allotted to his Cool Mix who has been running well all season but is without a victory, but will he get the distance? I am not sure and for that reason I must pass him over.
There are three Irish runners and Pat Fahey has two of them, Stormy Judge and History Of Fashion and I prefer the latter. He won at Down Royal in January then got no further than the sixth fence when fancied in the Eider. Since then, he has run a very creditable third at Navan and has the ability to be successful here.
A lively outsider could be another Irish runner John McConnell’s Streets Of Doyen who was pulled up at the Festival. He is better than his form figures suggest and he can be placed at a nice price.
For the final leg of the Lucky Fifteen I will go to the 2.45 at Newbury, the British EBF BetVictor “NH” Novices Mares Hurdle.
Noel Williams’s Speech Bubble is the current favourite and top weight who was a course and distance winner in January, she then ran a fine second at Sandown the following month, but she has 9lbs more to carry than when she won here and may be picked off.
Olly Murphy’s Corey’s Courage is unbeaten in four lowly contests and deserves her chance to play with the big girls but will do well to be placed.
Alastair Ralph runs Holly Hartingo who has won a couple of small races this year but was outpaced after going off favourite last time at Hereford.
Nicky Henderson’s Tweed Skirt won at Ascot in November, then ran third at Sandown 9 lengths behind Speech Bubble. After that, she went for the Mares race at Cheltenham and finished out with the washing 24 lengths behind the winner. She will do well to come back from that.
I prefer Paul Nicholls’s Sabrina who won at Wincanton in early March. She skipped the Festival to come here and can take her opportunity.
Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.50 Ayr. Doyen Breed
2.25 Ayr. Onemorefortheroad
3.35 Ayr. History Of Fashion
2.45 Newbury. Sabrina
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365
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