Saturday’s Horse Racing Preview & Tips- 5th November 2022 – Seymour Biz

saturday horse racing tips and previews from expert tipster seymour biz on everytip

Find all previous Seymour Biz racing previews in his weekly column: Saturday Horse Racing Tips.

I have been to a fine friend’s funeral this week, and it seems very fitting that there is a meeting at Aintree on Saturday, where I have spent many a great day racing with him and his two brothers. I am hoping he can send some divine intervention to find some winners this week. RIP David.

Besides Aintree, from where three races are being televised, ITV are covering Wincanton’s big day of the year, Badger Beers Day, with four races from the Somerset track. Then it’s a last hurrah for the flat season after what has been a stellar year, and as usual, Doncaster completes the fixtures with its November Handicap meeting with three races covered.

Action is also being shown from Northern Ireland as the channel makes a rare visit to Down Royal in County Down for one race, the Ladbrokes Champion Chase, where Galvin looks to continue his winning ways. So altogether, eleven races are being covered, giving us plenty to get our teeth into with an early start.

The first race on TV is at 12.40. Now the clocks have gone back, and it’s getting dark in mid-afternoon. Here are my thoughts for the best value and this week’s Lucky Fifteen.

Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.01 Aintree. Gericault Roque
2.11 Aintree. Senior Citizen
1.50 Wincanton. Cap Du Nord
3.13 Doncaster. Teed Up
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365

I will begin at Aintree with the 1.01 the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle run over 3 miles and half a furlong. Top weight here is Rebecca Curtis’s Lisnagar Oscar who was running in Graded races towards the end of last season but was disappointingly pulled up in three of his last four contests, in his first run of the season. I think he is probably best watched.

At the other end of the handicap, we have Mark Walford’s Johnston’s Blue who has had a fine summer winning four times in lower-class races. Whilst he may go well off his lightweight, he is up against a much better class of opponent here.

Philip Hobbs brings Deise Aba here to begin his season en route to another run in the Grand National where he was pulled up early last April. He is a Sandown horse who seems to go best at the Esher track.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Flight Deck showed fine form last season winning two handicaps at Carlisle and Wetherby but he must have had his problems as he has not been seen since last December. He is a class horse who should go well.

But I prefer David Pipe’s Gericault Roque who ran well in novice chases last year without success. He reverts to hurdles for his first run of the season and is sure to go well over this distance.

The Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase is a 2m 5f race at 2.11 over the Grand National fences and as you would expect we have a couple of Irish entries. Lifetime Ambition and Jack Hackett.

Probably the best of these is the former trained by John Harrington who won a handicap at Limerick in March and then ran second in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in April. If he handles the fences, he will go close.

Sam Thomas’s Al Dancer ran consistently well last season without getting his head in front. He was only beaten a neck when going off favourite on his final run at Newbury but may have to settle for a place once again.

Dan Skelton’s Spiritofthegames is a 10-year-old now but ran a good second at Fakenham last month. He ran 5th over these fences last April in a Graded race and I expect him to go well again.

Paul Nicholls runs Broken Halo who finished off last season with a win at Fontwell coming home easily. All this trainer’s runners have to be respected but he may find a couple too good.

I think experience of these fences counts for a lot and Alan King’s Senior Citizen was second in this last year going down by just a length. He came back in April to run in a Graded race finishing 8th, so has jumped round twice without mishap and he can go one better than last season and get his head in front.

Moving to the West of England for Wincanton’s big day of the year at 1.50 it is the 61st Badger Beer Handicap Chase a 3m 1f contest.

Paul Nicholls has the top two in the betting, Frodon and Enrilo. The former won the King George two years ago then a Grade 1 at Down Royal in October last year. Since then he has been unplaced in a couple of Grade 1’s but was a disappointment in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March after being struck into. In his pomp he would walk this but is a 10-year-old now.

Enrilo’s only finish in four attempts last season was a 4th place at Kempton in February where he was beaten 11 lengths.

Kim Bailey’s El Presente won this in 2020 and was 5th last year, but was pulled up on his seasonal reappearance last month after jumping poorly.

Last year’s 40/1 winner, Rocco, returns for another attempt to grab the spoils but his form after that victory nosedived when he was pulled up twice and ran last in his three outings. I don’t think lightning can strike twice.

Alan King’s Potterman was second here last year then failed to finish in two contests, won at Kelso, then pulled up on his last outing at Sandown in April, but not for me.

The horse who was the favourite last year and finished fourth is my idea of the winner. Christian Williams’s Cap Du Nord has gone on to run well in Listed and Graded company winning a Grade 3 at Kempton in February. He has had a prep run at the beginning of October and Williams will have him spot-on for this.

For the final leg of the Lucky Fifteen, I will revert to the flat and the final big handicap of the season at Doncaster.

The BetGoodwin November Handicap is at 3.13 and is run over 1m 4f. John and Thady Gosden have the warm favourite here with Israr who won over this course and distance last month beating Richard Hannon’s Sir Rumi by nearly 4 lengths but Hannon’s charge is 7lbs better off here.

The 2020 winner Alan King’s On To Victory returns for another crack but his form has been poor and he hasn’t won since.

Not so last year’s winner Farhan who won at York in August then was not disgraced in Group company at Ascot last month, he will go close.

Harry Fry’s Metier is fancied in some quarters but he has not run on the flat since 2019 and his recent jump form is not wonderful.

There is an Irish raider in the lineup and the Irish have been milking some of our top handicaps this year. The horse in question is Emmet Mullins’s Teed Up who is a real bog-trotter having won three times on heavy going. In his latest run at Leopardstown, he was challenging until the last 110yds and was only beaten 6 lengths. The more it rains, the more it will suit him. He can get the better of Farhan in the mud.

Saturday Lucky Fifteen
1.01 Aintree. Gericault Roque
2.11 Aintree. Senior Citizen
1.50 Wincanton. Cap Du Nord
3.13 Doncaster. Teed Up
Bet this lucky 15 now on Bet365

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